安倍表示日本不再处于通缩中

Japan is “no longer in a deflationary period”, said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a New Year’s message that clashes with recent data showing inflation running close to zero.

日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在一则新年消息中表示，日本“不再处于通缩时期”，这一言论与日本近期数据发生冲突，数据显示日本通胀水平接近于零。

Mr Abe’s remarks highlight his eagerness to produce results for the Japanese public, with his Abenomics stimulus now entering its fourth year and upper house elections due in the summer.

安倍这番话凸显了他急于向日本民众展示成果，他的“安倍经济学”刺激政策已迈入第四个年头，今年夏季日本还将举行参议院选举。

But by declaring Japan is on its way out of deflation Mr Abe risks making it harder to launch extra stimulus should the economy take a turn for the worse.

但是宣布日本已摆脱通缩将令安倍面临风险，如果日本经济恶化，他将更难推出额外刺激措施。

Pressed on his remarks, Mr Abe conceded “we have not completely got rid of deflation yet”, but said rising wages and a pick-up in investment meant such an escape was near.

安倍在发言中承认“我们尚未完全摆脱通缩”，但他表示工资上涨以及投资回升意味着日本经济即将摆脱通缩。

“I think we are just one step before we can declare that we are out of deflation,” said the prime minister. “The Bank of Japan governor Mr [Haruhiko] Kuroda says he will do everything possible to achieve this.”

安倍表示：“我认为我们离宣布告别通缩只有一步之遥。日本央行(BoJ)行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)表示他会尽一切努力实现这一目标。”

The most recent inflation numbers for November show a 0.3 per cent rise in overall prices compared with a year ago and a 0.9 per cent increase excluding volatile food and energy components.

去年11月份的最新通胀数据显示，日本通胀水平同比上升0.3个百分点，如果去除波动较大的食品和能源部分，则同比增长0.9个百分点。

The BoJ argues that the upward trend in these “core” prices reflects a shift towards inflation, but many analysts worry it is due to the one-off effects of a weaker yen, and the progress will peter out before reaching the Bank of Japan’s goal of 2 per cent.

日本央行认为这些“核心”价格的上升趋势反映了日本经济正转向通胀，但许多分析人士担心这是日元走弱的一次性效应，而且在达到日本央行2%的目标前，这股趋势将会逐渐消失。

“We will do whatever it takes, and we will reach our goal of 2 per cent inflation without fail,” said Mr Kuroda. The BoJ surprised some analysts by choosing not to ease further last autumn, in spite of a slide in business expectations of future inflation.

黑田东彦说：“我们将尽一切努力务必实现2%的通胀目标。”尽管未来通胀的商业预期出现下滑，但去年秋天日本央行没有选择进一步实行宽松政策，令部分分析师感到惊讶。