周小川 要区分资本外流和资本外逃

China’s central bank governor downplayed concerns over China’s falling foreign reserves and said he saw no basis for continuing depreciation in the renminbi — comments that could calm mainland markets when they reopen on Monday after a week-long hiatus that saw upheaval in global markets.

中国央行行长周小川淡化了人们对中国外汇储备下降的担忧，称他认为人民币不存在持续贬值的基础。这番言论可能会在下周一中国内地市场重新开盘时对市场情绪起到安抚作用。中国内地市场已休市一周，其间全球市场出现了大幅震荡。

In an interview published over the weekend in Caixin, the mainland financial magazine, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, chose a critical moment to speak up to clarify Beijing’s exchange rate strategy, local analysts said.

中国当地的分析师表示，周小川选择了一个关键时点发声澄清中国政府的汇率战略。中国内地财经杂志《财新周刊》(Caixin)周末发表了对周小川的专访。

All eyes will be on mainland markets when they reopen on Monday, watching for dramatic fluctuations in response to a volatile week in world markets.

下周一中国内地市场重新开盘之际，所有人的目光都将落在它们身上，看全球市场过去一周的动荡是否会引发它们的大幅波动。

In the interview, Mr Zhou dismissed speculation that Beijing would tighten capital controls. “It is normal for foreign reserves to rise and fall as long as the fundamentals face no problems,” he said. “At the moment the level of cross border capital flows is within the normal region,” he said, adding: “We need to differentiate between capital outflow and capital flight.”

在上述专访中，周小川否认了关于中国政府将加强资本管制的猜测。他说：“只要基本面没有问题，（外汇储备的）增增减减本身都是正常的。”他表示：“当前……跨境资本流动处于正常区间。”他还说：“需要区分资本外流和资本外逃两个概念。”

Surging capital outflows from China have become a source of growing global concern and have left Beijing scrambling to support the currency. During January’s market turmoil in China, some $113bn was sent out of the country in the first month of the year alone, according to estimates from the Institute for International Finance. Recently released data showed that foreign reserves fell to their lowest level in almost four years in January.

中国资本外流激增已成为全球日益加剧的担忧的一大致因，同时也使得中国政府急于支撑人民币汇率。国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)的估计数字显示，仅在今年1月这一个月里，就有大约1130亿美元资金流出中国。最近公布的数字则显示，今年1月中国外储规模滑落至将近四年来的最低水平。

Mr Zhou stressed that Beijing’s strategy did not include further devaluations to boost exports. “The total trade surplus in 2015 was close to $600bn and net export’s contribution to gdp was not low so there’s no motive to depreciate the renminbi for the sake of net export expansion,” he told Caixin. He condemned “speculators” for targeting the renminbi, adding that “China will not let market sentiment be dominated by these speculative forces”.

周小川强调，中国政府的战略并不包括通过进一步贬值来扩大出口。他向《财新周刊》表示：“2015年货物贸易顺差已接近6000亿美元，净出口对GDP的贡献率已经不低，因此不存在为扩大净出口而贬值的动机。”他谴责“投机者”把人民币当作攻击目标，并补充称“我们不会让投机力量主导市场情绪”。

Mr Zhou reiterated that “the trend is to rely further on the market to decide the level of the currency and to achieve a more flexible foreign exchange rate”. “The bank will use a basket of currencies as a reference and appropriately manage any daily volatility in the renminbi against the dollar as well as using a wider range of economic data,” he said, adding that there “is no basis for devaluation”.

周小川重申，“方向是更加依靠市场力量决定价格，实现更有灵活性的汇率”。他说：“操作上以稳定一篮子汇率为主要目标，同时适当管理单日内人民币对美元汇率波动的幅度。未来还会引入宏观经济数据对汇率发生作用的机制。”他还表示，“不存在持续贬值的基础”。

Mr Zhou also defended the bank against accusations that Beijing lacked transparency in its management of the economy. “The central bank is neither a god nor a magician, there is no way that we can wipe out all uncertainties”. “Sometimes, the central bank has to say, ‘Sorry, we have to wait for new data’.”

针对有些人指责中国政府在管理经济方面缺乏透明度，周小川为中国央行做了辩护：“央行既不是上帝，也不是魔术师，不可能把不确定性问题都抹掉。所以央行有时要说：‘对不起，我们要等待新数据的输入’。”