偿债是中国资本外流最大因素

While an overseas buying spree by Chinese companies has grabbed headlines, more mundane activity such as trade finance and corporate cash management are a much bigger strain on China’s foreign exchange reserves, analysis of official data shows.

尽管中国企业的海外收购热潮成为头条新闻，但是对官方数据的分析显示，贸易融资和企业现金管理等更平凡的活动是造成中国外汇储备降低的更大因素。

The dominance of bank lending and portfolio investment as a source of Chinese capital outflows casts doubt on whether Beijing’s recent clampdown on big-ticket foreign deals by the likes of Dalian Wanda and Anbang Insurance can shield the renminbi from downward pressure, intensified by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate rise on Thursday.

银行贷款的偿还和组合投资的解除在中国资本外流中占据主导地位，令人怀疑北京方面能否通过近期对大连万达(Dalian Wanda)和安邦保险(Anbang Insurance)等中资企业的境外大笔交易踩下刹车，来阻止人民币受到下行压力的影响；美联储(Federal Reserve)上周四加息加剧了这种压力。

Bank lending and securities investment accounted for $301bn in net outflows from China in the first nine months of the year, compared with $78bn from outbound foreign direct investment, according to Financial Times analysis of balance-of-payments data.

根据英国《金融时报》对国际收支数据的分析，银行贷款的偿还和证券投资的解除在今年前九个月中国的净资金流出中占3010亿美元，相比之下对外直接投资占780亿美元。

Beyond loan repayments and securities sales, illicit flows are also increasingly prominent.

除了偿还贷款和卖出证券外，非法资金流也越来越突出。

Errors and omissions — a catch-all for cross-border transfers that have not been properly classified — caused net outflows of $89bn in the first half of 2016, which is also nearly double the $46bn net FDI outflows in the same period.

2016年上半年，错误与遗漏项目（对于未经适当分类的跨境资金转移的一个笼统表述）造成890亿美元净流出，几乎两倍于同期460亿美元的外国直接投资(FDI)净流出。

Errors and omissions are not yet available for the third quarter.

第三季度的错误与遗漏数据尚不能获得。

China has taken substantial steps since 2012 to liberalise cross-border money flows as it sought to Internationalise its currency and pursued the International Monetary fund’s endorsement as a reserve currency.

自2012年以来，中国采取重大步骤放开跨境资金流动，力图使人民币国际化，并追求国际货币基金组织(IMF)认可其为一种储备货币。

Those steps have opened the door to unprecedented capital outflow pressure as hot money now leaves through the same deregulated channels through which it entered.

这些步骤为前所未有的资本流出压力开启了大门，现在热钱正通过与入境时相同的放松管制的渠道流出。

Several hundred billion in outflows are simply associated with repayment of existing loans, said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US Treasury official.

数千亿美元的外流只与现有贷款的偿还有关，美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)高级研究员、美国财政部前官员布拉德.塞泽尔(Brad Setser)表示。

Foreign bank claims on China, a broad measure of cross-border lending, have fallen by $305bn in the 18 months through June this year, according to the most recent figures from Bank for International Settlements, showing how banks are pulling funds from the country.

根据国际清算银行(BIS)近期的数据，外资银行对中国实体拥有的债权（跨境放贷的广义衡量指标）在截至今年6月的18个月里下降了3050亿美元，显示各银行正从中国撤回资金。

Claims had risen by $643bn in the previous two years.

在之前两年，外资银行在华拥有的债权曾增加6430亿美元。

Much of this lending came in the form of trade finance.

这些贷款有很大一部分是贸易融资。

When the renminbi was appreciating against the dollar, Chinese importers eagerly borrowed in dollars.

当人民币对美元升值时，中国进口商急切地以美元借款。

Such borrowing was effectively a bet on the Chinese currency appreciating because in renminbi terms, dollar debt was cheaper to pay back by the time the loan matured.

这类借款实际上是对人民币升值的押注，因为以人民币计算，美元债务在贷款到期时偿还起来更便宜了。

Now outflows are occuring as importers repay foreign loans and shift to local financing.

如今，随着中国进口商积极偿还外币贷款，并转向国内融资，中国出现了较大资金外流。

Savvy cash management by corporate treasurers seeking to maximise returns on idle cash likewise fuelled inflows.

同样，寻求最大限度提高闲置现金回报率的企业财务主管的精明现金管理，也曾助燃了资金流入。

In addition to gains from renminbi appreciation, corporations could profit from higher interest rates available in renminbi at a time when the Federal Reserve was holding dollar rates near zero.

除了人民币升值带来的收益外，在美联储将美元利率保持在接近于零的低位之际，企业可以获利于人民币较高的利率。

Corporates rushed to raise funding in dollars because interest rates were very low.

企业纷纷用美元融资，因为那时利率很低。

Now that carry trade is being unwound, said Harrison Hu, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.

现在这类套利交易正被解除，苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)驻新加坡的中国经济学家胡志鹏(Harrison Hu)表示。

To be sure, the regulatory focus on corporate deals is a response to a rapid acceleration of outbound FDI.

应该承认，中国监管机构对企业并购的关注是对中资对外FDI迅速加快的回应。

But it also reflects the lower disruption from tightening the reins on foreign acquisitions compared with forcing loan or bond defaults by blocking cross-border debt repayments.

但它也反映出，相比阻止跨境偿债来迫使贷款或债券违约，收紧境外收购的干扰程度较低。

Even so, some bankers and analysts now worry that even debt payments will eventually feel the impact of the recent clampdown on outflows.

即使如此，一些银行家和分析师现在担心，就连偿债支付最终也会感受到近期对资金流出的限制的影响。

The cross-border regulations could definitely have an impact on companies that have offshore debt, said Xia Le, chief Asia economist at BBVA in Hong Kong.

跨境监管肯定会对有境外债务的企业产生影响，西班牙对外银行(BBVA)驻香港的首席亚洲经济学家夏乐表示。

There is a concern that many will have to refinance but at a much higher cost.

现在有一个担忧是，许多企业将不得不以高得多的成本进行再融资。

They will need to issue very high-yielding bonds.

他们将需要发行收益率很高的债券。