周小川回应中国外汇储备及人民币贬值担忧

SHANGHAI — For the second time since last summer, an avuncular, graying man has stepped out of Beijing’s shadows and calmed financial markets after a Chinese devaluation — but once again, his assurances came after nearly a month of turmoil and growing worry about the country’s economic health.

上海——头发花白、神情慈爱的周小川，又一次在人民币贬值而北京态度不明之际站出来，稳定金融市场。这是自去年夏天以来的第二次。但和上次一样，他是在市场动荡持续了近一个月，外界对中国经济的健康状况日益担忧之际，才作出了安抚。

Mixing folksy charm with deft explanations of economic thought, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of China’s central bank, held a rare news conference in Shanghai on Friday morning, as finance officials from around the world gathered for the Group of 20 major economies meeting. Mr. Zhou acknowledged worries about spiraling debt at Chinese corporations and local governments but offered reasons why the Chinese economy might be uniquely able to deal with it for the time being.

周五上午，在世界各地的财经官员齐聚上海，参加主要经济体组成的二十国集团（Group of 20，简称G20）会议之际，既有随和的魅力，又能熟练解释经济思想的中国央行行长周小川，罕见地举行了一场新闻发布会。他承认了中国企业和地方政府债务不断攀升的担忧，但也给出了一些理由，解释说中国经济可能具有独一无二的能力，可以暂时应对这种局面。

He also dismissed American hedge funds’ concerns about the erosion of China’s foreign exchange reserves and assured the audience that China did not plan to further devalue its currency to increase its already formidable export prowess.

美国对冲基金对中国外汇储备缩水表达了担忧，但周小川对此不以为意。他向与会者保证，中国无意为提升本就强大的出口实力而让人民币进一步贬值。

China’s supply of foreign exchange reserves “is not an oil field with a static stock of oil. It is like water in a reservoir, so there are constant flows in and flows out,” he said.

他说，中国的外汇储备规模“不像石油的油田储备量是一个固定的数，把油抽完了就没有了。外汇储备有点像水库里流水的水库，上游不断的有水进来，下游也有不断的出的，中间部分是外汇储备”。

Following Mr. Zhou’s remarks, the Shanghai stock market rebounded 1 percent on Friday, on the heels of a 6.4 percent plunge on Thursday. The value of the renminbi also steadied on Friday in largely unregulated trading in Hong Kong, although it still dipped slightly against the dollar for the day.

在周小川发表上述言论后，上证指数周五回升1%。而在周四，沪指暴跌6.4%。周五当天，在香港基本上不受监管的交易中，人民币汇率也处于稳定状态，不过当天人民币兑美元汇率仍轻微下跌。

What Mr. Zhou did not do on Friday, however, was provide any indication of when he might next offer an explanation of Chinese monetary policy. He also did not announce any plans for the People’s Bank of China to follow other leading central banks — like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan — in holding regular news briefings after important policy decisions.

然而，周小川周五并未透露，下一次可能会在何时解释中国的货币政策。此外，他也没有宣布中国人民银行有意效仿其他主要的中央银行——如美联储(Federal Reserve)、欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)和日本银行(Bank of Japan)——在重要的政策决议出台后举行例行新闻发布会。

“It is very clear that he still does not want to talk too much about policy; he wants to leave it a bit uncertain,” said Zhou Hao, the Asia economist for Commerzbank, who is not related to Zhou Xiaochuan. “From China’s perspective, if it’s too transparent, then people will expect too much of you.”

“很显然，他依然不想过多地讨论政策；他希望保留一点不确定性，”德国商业银行(Commerzbank)亚洲经济学家周浩说。“从中国的角度来说，如果太透明了，人们就会对你有太多的期望。”周浩和周小川没有亲戚关系。

In contrast with the central banks of other major economies, China’s central bank is to some extent an advisory body instead of an independent, decision-making institution. The final say on major economic decisions, like interest rate moves or devaluations, belongs to the country’s political leadership.

和其他主要经济体的央行形成鲜明对比的是，中国央行在一定程度上来说只是一个顾问机构，而不是一个独立的决策机构。在像利率调整或人民币贬值这样的重大经济决策上，最终决定权属于中国的政治领导人。

Regular statements from the People’s Bank of China could limit those leaders’ ability to pivot quickly on policy. But quick changes — including a 4 percent devaluation of China’s currency against the dollar in early August, and a gradual devaluation in late December and early January — have led to global bouts of market turmoil.

如果中国人民银行定期发布公告，可能会限制这些领导人迅速调整政策的能力。但突如其来的变化，包括8月初人民币对美元贬值4%，以及12月末和1月初人民币逐步贬值，引起了全球市场动荡。

On both occasions, Mr. Zhou said fairly little until the next meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors a month later. The last ministerial meeting was in September in Ankara, Turkey; China holds the group’s presidency this year and chose Shanghai for the gathering on Friday night and Saturday.

周小川两次都说得很少，直到一个月后召开下一次G20财政部长和央行行长会议。上一次财长会议是9月在土耳其安卡拉举行的。今年，作为G20主席国的中国选择了上海作为会议举办地。会议周五晚上开幕，周六结束。

The secrecy of the central bank was not a problem for Chinese policy makers as long as they maintained strict regulation of money moving in and out of the country. But Mr. Zhou has dismantled many of those controls over the past two years as part of a successful move to increase International use of the renminbi and to win the International Monetary Fund’s approval of it in November as a reserve currency. That has left interest rates, stock prices and money flows in China much more exposed to international sentiment about the country’s economic prospects.

过去，对中国的政策制定者来说，只要对进出中国的资金维持严格的管控，央行的保密性就不是问题。但过去两年里，周小川废除了很多这类的管控措施。这是一项成功行动的一部分，该行动扩大了人民币在国际市场的使用，并于11月赢得国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的同意，成为其储备货币。这大大提升了国际市场有关中国经济前景的看法，对中国的利率、股价和资金流动的影响。

United States Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew added his voice late Friday afternoon to those calling for China to explain policy changes.

周五下午晚些时候，美国财长雅各布·J·卢(Jacob J. Lew)加入了其他人的行列，呼吁中国对其政策变化作出解释。

“The exchange rate policy is one in particular that needs to be clearly communicated, and it’s important that as they make their transitions, that they do it in an orderly way,” he told a small group of reporters in Shanghai before a meeting with other finance ministers.

“尤其需要明确解释汇率政策，在调整政策时，也要有序过渡，这一点很重要，”他在参加有其他财长出席的一场会议前，对上海的一小群记者说。

Although Mr. Zhou spoke for more than an hour at his news conference on Friday morning in a large, tastefully decorated hall on the fourth floor of the central bank’s Shanghai branch office, he said virtually nothing that would limit the political leadership’s options. He did not, for instance, categorically rule out another decline in the renminbi at some point against the dollar.

周五上午，周小川的新闻发布会在央行上海分行四楼一个装修典雅的大厅里举行。尽管讲话持续了一个多小时，但他几乎没有谈到可能会局限领导层可选方案的内容。比如，他并未完全排除人民币兑美元的汇率会在某个时刻再次下跌的可能性。

When one question suggested the renminbi was pegged to a basket of other currencies, Mr. Zhou quickly objected. He said instead that the value of the renminbi would be set “with reference” to a basket of other currencies — essentially a weighted average. He preserved even more flexibility for China’s leadership by emphasizing that the renminbi would not be measured against just one basket, but against several.

当有人提问时称，人民币“盯住”了一篮子货币时，周小川迅速表示了反对。他说，人民币的价值是“参照”一篮子货币，本质上是一个加权平均值。他甚至还为中国领导人保留了更多的灵活性，强调人民币参照的不仅是一篮子，而是多种货币。

Mr. Zhou decisively ruled out a depreciation for the purpose of trade advantage, but did not address whether the currency might someday rise or fall for other reasons.

周小川明确排除了为取得贸易优势而让人民币贬值的可能性，但他并未提到人民币会不会在某一天因为其他原因而升值或贬值。

“We will not resort to competitive depreciation so as to boost our advantage in exports,” he said.

“我们也不会用参与竞争性贬值来增强中国的出口能力，”他说。

Mr. Zhou hinted at another Chinese policy effort to strengthen economic growth when he talked about there being room for banks to lend more money for mortgages. Although companies and local governments are heavily in debt, Chinese households generally are not, he noted.

谈到银行体系有发放更多个人住房抵押贷款的机会时，他暗示了中国为加强经济增长而实行的另一项政策。周小川指出，尽管企业和地方政府债台高筑，但中国的家庭普遍没有沉重的债务负担。

The People’s Bank of China recently cut the regulatory minimum for down payments on mortgages to 20 percent of a home’s value, from 30 percent.

最近，中国人民银行将个人住房抵押贷款最低首付标准从总房价的30%，降到了20%。

Mr. Zhou also offered explanations why foreign investors were wrong to worry about China’s rising overall levels of credit, relative to economic output. China has a far higher savings rate than most other economies, so banks have a lot in deposits to lend, he said.

周小川还解释了外国投资者不用担心中国总体债务相对于经济产出的比例不断攀升的原因。他说，中国的储蓄率远高于其他大部分经济体，因此银行有大量可以用来放贷的储蓄资金。

China’s stock markets are somewhat small, compared with the size of its economy, forcing companies that need money to rely more on bank loans and bonds, he added. And because China was poor until very recently, many families have not had enough time to accumulate the wealth to start businesses just with their own savings.

他接着表示，和中国的经济体量相比，中国股市规模有些小，这迫使需要资金的企业更依赖银行贷款和债券。并且因为直到不久前，中国还比较贫穷，很多家庭没有足够的时间来积累财富，用自己的存款创办企业。

“If you don’t have a lot of accumulation,” he said, “you have to borrow.”

“机会又好，又没有底子，怎么办？”他说。“就靠借钱。”