中国金融外交面对高风险赌局(中)
Exposure to Caracas
在委内瑞拉面临的风险
When China began funding Chávez’s government in 2007, it was effectively betting that a country with a junk sovereign credit rating that had defaulted on or rescheduled its debts with overseas creditors four times over the preceding 30 years was somehow ready to embrace financial prudence.
中国2007年开始资助查韦斯政府时，实际上赌的是一个主权信用评级为垃圾级、过去30年曾经对海外债权人违约或进行债务重组多达四次的国家应该已经准备好拥抱稳健的财政政策。
Beijing was so convinced of this that it made oil-rich Venezuela its biggest client for development loans by far, doling out $65bn since 2007 in 17 tranches to fund refineries, gold mines, logistics, trade, the railway and a large number of unspecified items, according to the China-Latin America Finance Database, compiled by Mr Gallagher and Margaret Myers.
北京方面如此深信这一点，以至于使盛产石油的委内瑞拉成为中国发展贷款的最大客户。加拉格尔与马格里特•迈尔斯(Margaret Myers)汇编的中国-拉美金融数据库(China-Latin America Finance Database)显示，自2007年以来，中国为委内瑞拉在炼油厂、金矿、物流、贸易、铁路以及大量隐秘项目上提供了17个批次共计650亿美元贷款。
For context, $65bn is more than the World Bank has lent to any country — with the single exception of India — since 1945, data from the bank show.
世行的数据显示，除印度以外，该行自1945年以来提供给任何一个国家的贷款都未超过650亿美元。
In May, Caracas engineered a negotiated default on its Chinese debts.
今年5月，加拉加斯方面经过协商后得以延期向中国偿还贷款。
With annual inflation running at as much as 800 per cent in Venezuela, food shortages and government contractors going unpaid, Beijing agreed to let the government of Nicolás Maduro postpone payments of the principal on its outstanding loans, officials in Caracas have said.
加拉加斯的官员表示，鉴于委内瑞拉年通胀率高达800%、食品短缺，以及政府的承包商也拿不到钱，北京方面已同意尼古拉斯•马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)的政府延期支付其未偿贷款的本金。
Having to pay only the interest on an estimated $20bn-$24bn in outstanding loans is set to deliver annual savings of about $5bn for two years, according to Francisco Rodríguez, chief economist at Torino Capital in New York.
都灵资本(Torino Capital)驻纽约首席经济学家弗朗西斯科•罗德里格斯(Francisco Rodríguez)表示，只需为估计在200亿至240亿美元之间的未偿贷款支付利息将在未来两年里每年为委内瑞拉节省约50亿美元。
However, worse may yet to come for China.
然而对中国而言，更糟糕的可能还在后面。
Concern is growing that Caracas may default on its international bonds, a development that would trigger the seizure of national assets held offshore by the country’s creditors.
令人越来越担心的是，加拉加斯的国际债券可能出现违约，那将导致债权人扣押委内瑞拉在海外的国有资产。
This could mean that overseas oil refineries owned by PDVSA, the national oil company, are confiscated and exports of crude — the government’s lifeline — would be disrupted, potentially threatening the oil supplies that Caracas uses to repay China.
这意味着，委内瑞拉国家石油公司(PDVSA)旗下的海外炼油厂可能被扣押，作为政府生命线的原油出口将受到冲击，从而影响到加拉加斯向中国供应石油偿债。
All this is a far cry from China’s optimism of only four years ago.
所有这一切与四年前中国的乐观想法形成鲜明反差。
Liu Kegu, vice-governor of China Development Bank, Venezuela’s biggest creditor, explained then that because the bank’s loans were secured against Caracas’s huge reserves of oil, the credit line was insulated against default.
当时，中国国家开发银行(China Development Bank)——委内瑞拉最大债权人——副行长刘克崮解释称，因为该行的贷款有委内瑞拉巨大的石油储量作担保，不可能出现债务违约。
Oil is very simple to drill.
亨利•桑德森(Henry Sanderson)、迈克尔•福赛思(Michael Forsythe)合著的《中国的超级银行》(China’s Superbank)一书援引了刘克崮2012年接受采访时说的话：开采石油非常简单。
You drill a hole, put in a pipe and it comes out! And then you ship it.
在地上钻一个洞，插入管道，就出来了！然后就可以装船运走。
So Venezuela’s debt service ability is very strong, Mr Liu was quoted as saying in a 2012 interview for China’s Superbank, a book by Henry Sanderson and Michael Forsythe.
所以，委内瑞拉的偿债能力非常强。
China’s exposure to Venezuela runs much deeper than the $65bn in state-to-state lending.
中国在委内瑞拉投入的远不止650亿美元政府间贷款。
A phalanx of Chinese companies followed the lending splurge, eyeing the likely developmental dividends.
一大批中国企业也跟随这种信贷狂热来到委内瑞拉，期待获得发展红利。
In a population that the UN estimates at 31m, the largesse equated to about $2,100 per person.
据联合国估计，委内瑞拉的人口为3100万，中国的贷款相当于给每人发放约2100美元。
CITIC Group signed to build railroads and housing, Sinohydro Group signed to build power stations, phone networks were supplied by ZTE and oil refineries and pipelines were erected by Sinopec and PetroChina — not to mention China Railway Group, the contractor for the mothballed Tinaco-Anaco line.
中信集团(CITIC Group)签约修建铁路和住房，中国水电(Sinohydro Group)签约修建发电站，中兴通讯(ZTE)提供电话网，中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)建设炼油厂和管道——更不必提承建迪纳科-阿纳科高铁的中国中铁(China Railway Group)。
Outwardly, Beijing shows little sign of concern, eschewing any temptation to criticise Mr Maduro in public.
分析人士称，在台面上，北京方面很少表现出担忧的迹象，也避免公开批评马杜罗。
But in private discussions with Venezuelan officials, the tone is blunter, analysts say.
但在与委内瑞拉官员私下交流时，中方更加直言不讳。
Chinese officials have also informally made contact with the Venezuelan opposition coalition.
中国官员还与委内瑞拉反对派联盟进行了非正式接触。
Even by 2011 or 2012, the Chinese were starting to get nervous, says Evan Ellis, professor of Latin American studies at the US Army War College. Money was being siphoned off from various projects and China Development Bank was sending in multiple teams and making lots of recommendations that didn’t make any difference.
早在2011或者2012年，中方就开始感到不安了，美国陆军战争学院(US Army War College)从事拉丁美洲研究的埃文•埃利斯教授(Evan Ellis)说，许多工程的资金都被抽走，国开行派出了多个工作组，给出了很多建议，但都没有什么效果。
Mr Ellis says that unless things change for the better in Caracas, China is no longer willing to put good money after bad, unless it is the only way for it to avoid losing its entire position through the collapse of the regime.
埃利斯表示，除非加拉加斯的局势有所好转，中国不会愿意继续浪费钱了，除非这是其避免在委内瑞拉政权崩溃中弄得血本无归的唯一方法。
