中国宣布5月起实行存款保险制度
China will launch a long-awaited deposit insurance system next month, the central bank said on Tuesday, a crucial step towards deregulating domestic interest rates and promoting market-based capital allocation.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, told reporters last month that China could remove the cap on bank deposit rates — the last remaining domestic interest rate subject to administrative regulation — by the end of this year.
中国央行行长周小川上月对记者表示，中国可能在今年底之前取消银行存款利率上限，存款利率是中国最后一种受到行政监管的利率。Deposit insurance lays the foundation for freeing up rates by ensuring that savers are protected even if competition for deposits leads to excessive risk-taking and bank failure. The People’s Bank of China said deposits up to Rmb500,000 ($80,600) would be insured.
存款保险将确保即便揽储竞争导致过度冒险和银行倒闭，储户也会得到保护，从而为利率自由化奠定基础。中国央行表示，最高偿付限额为50万元人民币（约合8.06万美元）。
“Deposit insurance is a precondition for interest-rate liberalisation. The implementation of the system means rate liberalisation is speeding up,” said Tao Wang, greater China economist at UBS in Hong Kong.
“存款保险是利率市场化的前提。该制度的执行意味着利率市场化开始加速，”瑞银(UBS)驻香港的大中华区经济学家汪涛表示。Economists say lifting the cap on bank deposit rates will lead to higher interest rates as banks compete for funds. That should improve capital allocation as lenders seek out more productive borrowers able to afford higher rates, including small, privately owned businesses that have long struggled to obtain bank loans.
经济学家们表示，放开银行存款利率上限将导致利率升高，因为各银行将为获得资金展开竞争。这应会改善资本配置状况，因为银行会寻找能够承受更高利率的更具成效的借款人，包括那些长期以来很难获取银行贷款的小型民企。The PBoC was widely expected to launch deposit insurance last year but bankers say behind the scenes wrangling led to delays. Larger banks resisted a structure that would have forced them to pay a disproportionate share of insurance premiums, in effect subsidising smaller lenders that are most likely to fail.
外界曾普遍预期中国央行会在去年推出存款保险制度，但银行家们表示，幕后角力导致了延迟。对于一种将迫使它们支付份额超出比例的保费、实际上对最可能倒闭的中小银行进行补贴的保险安排，大银行进行了抵制。The details of the system largely match those of a draft plan released in late November last year. Analysts said at the time that the Rmb500,000 limit would fully cover about 98 per cent of Chinese depositors, though the large share of deposit funds held by wealthy savers means that would still leave a significant chunk of the banking system’s Rmb126tn in deposits uninsured.
存款保险制度的细节基本上与去年11月下旬公布的草案相吻合。分析师们当时表示，偿付上限定为50万元人民币，将为约98%的中国储户提供全额保护，不过，富裕储户持有的高比例存款意味着，银行体系126万亿元人民币存款中仍将有相当大一部分得不到保护。Citing the experience of other countries, the International Monetary Fund has previously said that the rollout of deposit insurance could lead to deposit outflows from smaller banks, as it highlights bank failure as a realistic possibility and explicitly defines some deposits as unprotected.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)此前曾援引其他国家的经验表示，存款保险制度的推出可能导致存款流出中小银行，因为它凸显了银行倒闭的现实可能性，并明确地将部分存款界定为不受保护。Almost all Chinese banks are state-owned, and domestic savers have traditionally viewed all bank deposits as carrying an implicit government guarantee.
中国几乎所有银行都是国有银行，因而国内储户传统上认为所有银行存款都得到政府的隐性担保。In reality, even with deposit insurance in place, analysts remain sceptical that China’s government — with its focus on financial and social stability — would allow a bank failure. A series of technical defaults on risky high-yield debt has been permitted in recent years, but in each case the government ended up bailing out retail investors.
在现实中，即便在存款保险制度实施后，分析师们仍怀疑专注于维护金融与社会稳定的中国政府是否会允许银行倒闭。近年来，中国政府已允许一连串高风险、高收益债券发生技术性违约，但每一次，政府最终都安排散户投资者得到了全额偿付。The PBoC added that it could adjust the insurance limit if economic conditions change. The central bank will manage the deposit insurance fund, which can invest in government bonds, central bank bills, and other high-rated bonds.
中国央行补充称，如果经济条件发生变化，可能对最高偿付限额进行调整。中国央行将管理存款保险基金，该基金可以投资政府债券、央行票据和其他高评级债券。Additional reporting by Ma Nan in Shanghai
Ma Nan上海补充报道
