中俄关系是盟友而非"友后敌"

Often likened to being “between a rock and a hard place”, Central Asia’s relatively isolated position has required it to maintain consistent and balanced good relations with two giant neighbours, China and Russia.

中亚的处境常被比作“左右为难”，其相对孤立的地位要求它必须与两大邻国——中国和俄罗斯——保持协调、平衡的良好关系。

Nevertheless, its high degree of integration with Russia has jolted the region’s local economies, the result of their twin exposure to the protracted Ukrainian crisis and the slump in commodity prices, manifested through tanking local currencies and reduced inflows of remittances from workers abroad.

然而，由于中亚与俄罗斯高度一体化，受旷日持久的乌克兰危机和大宗商品价格暴跌的双重影响，该地区的经济遭受重创，这一点从当地货币糟糕的表现和海外工人汇款流入的减少便可见一斑。

Anxiety has further gripped post-Soviet states in recent months, with the recent 35 per cent slump in the Azerbaijan manat and a 34 per cent devaluation in Turkmenistan, often considered the economy with the least direct exposure to Russia. Concerns are spreading in Kazakhstan of an additional devaluation of the tenge (following last year’s 20 per cent decline) amid calls for early presidential elections.

这些前苏联共和国近几个月来愈发焦虑，阿塞拜疆货币马纳特汇率近期下滑35%，土库曼斯坦货币贬值34%，通常认为这两个国家的经济受俄罗斯的直接影响最小。哈萨克斯坦货币坚戈继去年汇率下跌20%后进一步贬值，担忧情绪正在其国内蔓延，民众要求提前举行总统大选。

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan arguably face even greater pressure, with both GDP and fiscal revenue highly dependent on remittances from Russia and the transit of Chinese manufactured goods into Russia/Uzbekistan. Neither has a promising outlook; the World Bank currently forecasts remittances to decline 4.9 per cent and 17.8 per cent in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan respectively this year, while Kyrgyz export volumes to Russia slumped 33 per cent year on year last year – also partly the result of a concerted crackdown on Kyrgystan’s re-export industries.

吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦无疑面临更大的压力，这两国的国内生产总值(GDP)和财政收入高度依赖来自俄罗斯的汇款，以及中国商品进入俄罗斯或乌兹别克斯坦的过境运输费。两国的前景都不乐观，据世界银行(World Bank)目前预测，今年吉尔吉斯斯坦的汇款将下降4.9%，塔吉克斯坦将下降17.8%。吉尔吉斯斯坦对俄罗斯的出口量去年同比下跌33%，部分原因是吉尔吉斯斯坦再出口业受到联合性打击。

Uzbekistan, the region’s most densely populated country, has also seen an 11 per cent decline in its som currency over the last year, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects inflation to remain in double digit figures as a result.

中亚人口最稠密的乌兹别克斯坦，其货币索姆的汇率在过去一年也出现了11%的下跌。据国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计，乌兹别克斯坦的通胀率也将因此保持在两位数。

Diversifying remains a challenge

多元化仍然是个挑战

The twin factors of low oil prices and Russian weakness have further pushed Central Asian states to diversify their economies. Nevertheless, their ability to integrate into global manufacturing supply chains remains hampered by their relative geographical isolation, problematic infrastructure and mostly low population densities.

油价低迷和俄罗斯经济走弱这两个因素进一步推动中亚国家实行经济多样化。但它们融入全球制造业供应链的能力，仍受阻于它们相对偏僻的地理位置、成问题的基础设施和普遍的低人口密度。

As an example, Japanese companies have not expanded manufacturing facilities into Central Asia as they have rapidly done in Southeast Asia, due to this lack of competitiveness. Accumulated financial exposure to Central Asia and the Caucasus by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Japan’s main policy lender, currently amounts to only ¥642bn, barely 3 per cent of its total ¥21,106bn exposure across Asia, and most of this has also gone towards energy-related services.

举例来说，日本企业在东南亚迅速扩大了生产设施，但在中亚就没这么做，原因是这里缺乏竞争力。日本的主要政策性银行——日本国际协力银行(JBIC)对中亚和高加索地区的金融敞口累积到现在，才仅仅6420亿日元，勉强为其对全亚洲211060亿日元总敞口的3%。而且JBIC在该地区的大部分敞口都投入了能源相关服务。

Moreover, the declining rouble itself further stymies the potential for local manufacturing, given Russia’s much larger industrial economies of scale. Car dealers in Kazakhstan, for example, have slashed retail prices by an average 30 per cent in recent months to compete with a surge in Russian imports.

此外，由于俄罗斯工业的规模经济比中亚大得多，卢布汇率下跌进一步阻碍了当地制造业的发展可能。比如哈萨克斯坦汽车经销商近几个月将零售价平均削减了30%，以与激增的俄罗斯进口汽车竞争。

Separately, private sector development and local innovation are difficult to implement even in the region’s more advanced economies, due both to the dominance of the state sector in most countries and the lack of access to credit and capital markets.

再有，即便是中亚发展水平较高的经济体，也难以实现私营部门的发展和地方创新。原因有两个，一是国有部门在中亚大多数国家占主导地位；二是缺乏进入信贷和资本市场的渠道。

China’s role in widening the economic base

中国在扩大中亚经济基础中的作用

Diversification is thus largely dependent on an expected massive surge in Chinese investment into the region which, in theory, should help build local industrial capacity and manufacturing supply chains. On paper at least, China has committed to investing $16.3bn into multiple infrastructure projects across Central Asia.

于是中亚经济的多元化很大程度上依赖于一个预期——中国对该地区投资的大量激增。这些投资在理论上应有助于提高当地工业产能，帮助当地建立制造业供应链。至少在纸面上，中国已承诺向整个中亚的多个基础设施项目投资163亿美元。

Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan, have also embraced the idea of acting as “transit hubs” for manufactured goods between China and Europe. Kazakhstan’s vice president is known to favour Chinese investment and the Astana headquarters of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, the state-owned railway firm, beams televised pictures of the China-Kazakhstan partnership in the sector onto the streets.

中亚国家，特别是哈萨克斯坦，也接受了充当中欧之间商品“转运枢纽”的理念。众所周知，哈萨克斯坦副总理欢迎中国投资，该国国有铁路公司Kazakhstan Temir Zholy位于阿斯塔纳的总部还将中哈在该领域结成合作伙伴关系的电视画面播放到街头。

In addition to collecting transit fees on transported goods, this is also expected to result in some manufacturing spillover. A recent Kazakhstan-China investment forum resulted in agreements to establish 20 JV manufacturing projects in sectors such as construction, transport, logistics, and food production.

作为转运枢纽，中亚除了可以对转运商品收取过境费，或许还有望享受到中国制造业的溢出。在最近举行的哈中投资论坛的促成下，两国在建筑、交通、物流和粮食生产等领域达成了20个合资制造业项目的协议。

Less-developed economies such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which also face greater domestic political uncertainty, are seeking Chinese investment into infrastructure. One major flagship project is a mooted Kyrgyz-China rail project, although this faces both political risks in Kyrgzstan’s democratic environment, as well a clampdown on Kyrgzstan’s re-export trade. The deputy finance minister of Tajikistan, meanwhile, announced that China plans to invest $6bn into the Tajik economy over the next three years.

吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦等欠发达经济体还面临着更大的国内政治不稳定，这些国家正在寻求中国对基础设施的投资。一个主要的旗舰项目是酝酿中吉尔吉斯斯坦-中国铁路项目，尽管该项目除了面临吉尔吉斯斯坦国内民主环境的政治风险，还要面对该国再出口贸易受到打击的风险。与此同时，塔吉克斯坦财政部副部长宣布，中国计划在未来三年向该国投资60亿美元。

Turkmenistan also aims to become a regional transit hub in which China has a special investment interest. Kazakhstan in late 2014 inaugurated the first direct railway link connecting Iran with western Kazakhstan via Turkmenistan, to more fully diversify from Russian transit routes to Europe. Positioned as a halfway point, this new route also enables Turkmenistan to act as a gate for traded goods simultaneously between Russia, other post-Soviet states, and southwest Asia.

土库曼斯坦也打算成为该地区的交通枢纽，而中国对此拥有特殊的投资兴趣。2014年底，哈萨克斯坦正式开通了首条经由土库曼斯坦直接连接伊朗与该国西部的铁路，使得交通线路在从俄罗斯到欧洲的线路的基础上，更加多样化。这条新铁路使地处线路中端的土库曼斯坦同时成为俄罗斯以及其他前苏联国家与亚洲西南部国家之间商品贸易的大门。

According to Shohrat Kadyrov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Science, Ashgabat is not only a major provider of gas, but also acts as an interlocutor between China and neighbouring states in the negotiation of supranational infrastructure corridors that aim to facilitate economic integration. In this regard, Turkmenistan is using the prospect of retaining its gas market share in China by investing in additional pipelines, which in turns allows it to bargain for infrastructure investments to facilitate the transit of Chinese-produced goods, arguably at Russia and Kazakhstan’s expense.

俄罗斯科学院东方研究所(Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Science)研究员肖赫拉特•卡德罗夫(Shohrat Kadyrov)认为，土库曼斯坦不仅是天然气的主要供应国，而且还在中国与邻国间关于建设旨在促进经济一体化的跨国基础设施走廊的谈判中，扮演中间对话者的角色。在这方面，土库曼斯坦利用保持其未来在中国天然气市场份额的前景，投资额外的管道建设，并借此争取基础设施投资以便于中国产商品的运输，但这无疑将牺牲俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的利益。

The importance of Russia

俄罗斯的重要性

Media attention has mostly focused on the surge in aspirant Chinese investment in the region coming “at the expense of Russia”, with the economic downturn luring Central Asian governments towards China’s trade and investment prowess.

媒体关注主要都集中在中国雄心勃勃的投资在本地区的激增（所谓“挖俄罗斯的墙角”），该地区的经济低迷使得中国的贸易和投资能力对中亚各国政府颇具吸引力。

Nevertheless, it is also clear that Russia remains a crucial partner and ally not just for Central Asian states themselves, but for ensuring the stability of China’s investments in the region, in particular its energy supplies.

然而，同样清楚的是，不仅对中亚各国自身，而且在确保中国对该地区（特别是能源供应领域）投资的稳定性方面，俄罗斯仍是一个至关重要的合作伙伴和盟友。

Indeed, despite the recent pain caused by Central Asia’s economic alliance with Russia, countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan appear to be making what amounts to a political decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which currently includes Kazakhstan, Belarus and, most recently, Armenia. This comes despite the clear evidence in Kazakhstan’s case that its participation in the EEU has not yielded significant economic benefits, as well as the concomitant exposure to Russian domestic political cycles.

事实上，尽管中亚与俄罗斯的经济联盟导致了近期的阵痛，但吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦等国似乎做出了堪称政治决策的决定——加入俄罗斯领导的欧亚经济联盟(Eurasian Economic Union)。该联盟目前包括哈萨克斯坦、白俄罗斯以及最近加入的亚美尼亚。尽管有明确的证据表明，哈萨克斯坦的加入并未产生显著的经济效益，而且还会暴露在俄罗斯国内政治周期影响之下，这些国家还是决定加入该联盟。

Russia-led structures such as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), beyond bland gestures of Sino-Russian geopolitical alliance and common interest, are acquiring real significance through the emphasis on maintaining, expanding, and modernising Russia’s network of military bases in countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. Russian bases remain strategic for the security of Central Asian governments themselves, since nearly their entire domestic military budgets go to Russia.

俄罗斯领导的组织——如集体安全条约组织(CSTO)——超越了中俄地缘政治同盟和共同利益的单调表态，正在通过强调俄罗斯在吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和亚美尼亚的军事基地网络的维护、扩大和现代化，而获得真正的影响力。俄罗斯的军事基地对于中亚各国政府自身的安全仍具有战略意义，因为这些国家几乎所有的军事预算都流向了俄罗斯。

In this respect, Sino-Russian co-operation is maintained out of a common interest to keep the Central Asian region stable. Chinese investment is required to buffer stagnant inward foreign direct investment flows into Central Asia from Russia.

从这个角度看，中俄合作出于维护中亚地区稳定的共同利益得到维系。中亚地区需要中国的投资以缓冲来自俄罗斯的外国直接投资的停滞。

However, Beijing needs Russia to provide security in a politically complex region subject to periodic unrest, as a means to ensure its massive investments into the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors. This is particularly crucial given the security imperatives in China’s own restive Xinjiang province, through which all energy supplies pass.

然而，北京方面需要俄罗斯在这个政治形势复杂、受周期性动荡影响的地区提供安全保障，并以此确保中国大规模投资进入该地区的能源和基础设施领域。这种保障尤其关键，特别是考虑到中国在自身桀骜的新疆维吾尔自治区保障安全的必要——所有能源供应都要经过这一地区。

This pattern of Sino-Russian cooperation is arguably being replicated elsewhere, such as in the ambitious pending construction of the Nicaragua canal, whereby China will finance the majority and Russia will provide military and other forms of security during the construction process.

中俄合作的这种模式无疑正在被复制到其他地方。例如，在雄心勃勃、等待开工的尼加拉瓜运河项目中，中国负责大部分投资，而俄罗斯将在建设过程中提供军事及其他形式的安全保障。

While media reports often emphasise the “historical distrust” between China and Russia, evidenced by long-drawn and sometimes acrimonious negotiations over bilateral gas supply contracts, it is clear that China does not aspire to undermine Russia’s sociopolitical and security influence in the region, while Russia in turn is not resisting China’s economic encroachment into the region. It might be a stretch to call the relationship symbiotic, but it is certainly mutually tolerant.

虽然媒体报道经常强调中俄之间“历史上的不信任”，并以两国间旷日持久、时而争吵激烈的天然气供应合同谈判为据，但很明显，中国并不想削弱俄罗斯在中亚社会政治和安全方面的影响力，而俄罗斯反过来也并不抵制中国对该地区的经济渗透。称这种关系为共生关系可能有些牵强，但它们一定相互宽容。

Diana Gapak is a Russia/CIS analyst. Daniyar Kosnazarov is a head of Central Asia and Caspian Region department, Geopolitics and Regional Studies Division, The Library of the First President of Kazakhstan. Gavin Bowring is a researcher at Asean Confidential, a research service at the Financial Times.

本文作者戴安娜•加帕克(Diana Gapak)是一位专注于俄罗斯/独联体的分析师。达尼亚尔•科斯纳扎罗夫(Daniyar Kosnazarov)是哈萨克斯坦第一总统图书馆(The Library of the First President of Kazakhstan)地缘政治和地区研究部(Geopolitics and Regional Studies Division)中亚和里海地区部门负责人。加文•鲍令(Gavin Bowring)是英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务机构《东盟投资参考》(Asean Confidential)研究员。