全球反恐变得更加困难 任重道远

Jihad went global when Osama bin Laden declared war on the “far enemy” and drew other extremist groups, fighting more localised battles, to join forces with al-Qaeda. Two decades later and five years since bin Laden’s death, the tactics of terrorists are morphing on the global stage in ways that are more difficult to pre-empt and combat.

当奥萨马•本拉登(Osama bin Laden)对“遥远的敌人”宣战、并吸引到其他更地方化作战的极端主义组织与基地组织(al-Qaeda)并肩作战时，圣战变成了全球化的战斗。20年后、也就是本拉登死去5年后的今天，恐怖主义的战术在国际舞台上开始发生变化，使各国更难以先发制人和作战。

Ahead of the recent Euro 2016 football matches in Nice, French security services prepared for many contingencies — including nuclear and biological attacks. What they did not, and perhaps could not, anticipate was that a young man known to police as a petty criminal but not to intelligence services, could wreak such carnage by hiring a truck and ploughing through seafront crowds. The atrocity left 84 people dead and 202 injured.

在2016年欧洲杯比赛在尼斯举行之前，法国安保部门为应对很多紧急事件做好了准备——其中包括应对核生化攻击。他们没有预见、或者说也无法预见的情况是，一名被警方认为是轻罪犯、但并不为情报部门所掌握的年轻人，可以凭借租来的一辆卡车、碾过海边的人群，造成了如此惨烈的杀戮。此次暴行造成84人死亡，202人受伤。

The Bastille Day attack is the more shocking for the brutal simplicity of its design. It comes after a string of terrorist incidents this year across the world from Bangladesh to Belgium. Since bin Laden outlined the contours of a coming war between jihadis and the west in an interview in 1998, Islamist extremism has atomised, and spread.

法国国庆日恐袭事件因其设计上的粗暴简单而更加令人震惊。此前，从孟加拉国到比利时等世界各国在今年发生了一系列恐怖袭击事件。自本拉登1998年接受一次采访时勾勒出圣战分子与西方国家即将到来的战争以来，伊斯兰极端主义迅速分化并扩散。

At the same time, terrorist groups have both splintered and reconstituted in more unpredictable forms, helped greatly by the ease with which they can network and spread propaganda on the internet. Extremists groups, as bin Laden promised, have been able to draw the superpowers on to their own terrain, and to simultaneously strike them back at home.

与此同时，大大受助于在互联网上搞组织和宣传之简便，恐怖主义组织不断分化并重组成了更加变幻莫测的形式。正如本拉登许诺的那样，极端主义组织现在能够把超级大国吸引到他们自己的地盘上，同时在这些大国的本土展开打击。

This year alone some 1,200 people have been killed in attacks claimed by Isis outside the main battle theatre of its self-proclaimed caliphate. It is tempting to see this surge in terrorism worldwide as the consequence of battlefield weakness, that Isis is lashing out as it cedes territory under pressure from Russian and US-backed forces in Syria and Iraq. The reality is probably far more complex.

仅在今年，就已有约1200人在“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)声称负责、发生在其自称的哈里发国主战场之外的袭击事件中遇难。人们很容易看出，在恐怖组织于战场受挫的同时，全球范围内恐怖袭击事件在激增——在俄罗斯和美国支持的武装力量的压力下，ISIS在叙利亚和伊拉克不断丧失地盘的同时，在世界各地猛烈发动恐怖袭击。现实情况可能复杂得多。

By comparison with al-Qaeda, Isis, which has claimed the majority of recent attacks, is multi-dimensional. It owes its strength to the merging of the millenarian ideals of extremist Islam and the Sunni supremacist remnants of the Iraqi Ba’athist state. The expertise and know-how of former Iraqi officers are grafted to a death cult that has distinguished itself by being more flexible in using conventional and unconventional tactics.

与基地组织相比，宣称对近来大多数恐怖袭击事件负责的ISIS更具多维性。它把其力量壮大归功于对伊斯兰极端主义的千禧理想和伊拉克复兴社会党(Ba'athist)残余的逊尼派至上主义者的结合。伊拉克前官员的专业知识和技能被移植到一种死亡崇拜上，不同之处在于后者在利用常规和非常规战术方面更加灵活。

The conflict in the Middle East is metastasising, as Isis fighters, like their al-Qaeda precursors did in the 1990s, return home. More difficult still for intelligence agencies to track are the individuals inspired by terrorist organisations but without operational connections to the base — the lone wolves.

随着ISIS的战士回到本土（就像其基地组织先驱在上世纪90年代一样），中东冲突正在发生变化。对于情报机构来说，追踪受恐怖主义组织启发、但与基地没有操作联系的个人——即“孤狼”——变得更加困难。

Intelligence agencies moulded in the cold war were once wrongfooted by al-Qaeda spectaculars. Technology since has helped groups like Isis quickly adapt to surveillance. Profiling their recruits has become increasingly difficult. Today’s terrorists may never have been to the mosque. They are as likely to be self-radicalised on social media. Terrorist groups are exploiting poisonous domestic political terrain, in France or Bangladesh, to advance their global agenda with greater ease.

在冷战时期锻造出来的情报机构，一度被基地组织的“壮举”打乱了阵脚。自那之后，技术帮助ISIS等组织迅速适应了监控。对他们招募的战士进行特点分析变得愈发困难。如今的恐怖分子可能从未进过清真寺。他们很可能是在社交媒体上完成自我激进化。恐怖组织正在利用国内不利的政治形势（比如法国和孟加拉国）来更轻松地推进他们的全球议程。

Against this hydra-headed monster no strategy can be fail-safe. But it can be calibrated to improve security, among other things through intelligence sharing, while steadily addressing the grievances that feed into the extremes. Heavy-handed tactics, or worse the militaristic demagoguery offered by the far right, will serve the terrorist agenda. The threat may be evolving. But this remains as much a battle of ideas as a security issue, as it was when bin Laden first set out his goals.

对付这只多头怪兽，没有任何策略是绝对安全的。但是可以调整策略来提高安全性，比如通过情报共享，同时解决滋生极端主义的国内不满情绪。粗暴的策略、甚至更糟的由极右翼势力煽动的穷兵黩武，将推进恐怖主义的议程。威胁可能正在不断加深。但是，这场战争仍然既是安全问题、也是理念之战，正如当初本拉登首次制定出他的目标时一样。