特朗普和普京的危险默契
What is going on between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump? That question hung over the US election.
弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)和唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)之间有什么默契吗？这个问题一直笼罩着美国大选。
Now that Mr Trump has won the presidency, the question of his relationship with the Russian leader assumes global significance.
现在特朗普已经胜选，他与俄罗斯领导人的关系具有了全球重大意义。
Mr Trump’s statements are often confusing and contradictory.
特朗普的声明往往是令人困惑和前后矛盾的。
But on Russia, he has been pretty consistent and clear.
但在俄罗斯问题上，他一直相当一致和明确。
He regards Mr Putin as a strong leader, worthy of admiration, and wants to see a sharp improvement in US-Russian relations.
他将普京视为一位值得钦佩的强有力领袖，并且希望看到美俄关系大幅改善。
As Mr Trump put it recently: Wouldn’t it be great if we actually got along with Russia?
就如特朗普最近说的：如果我们实际上能够和俄罗斯友好相处，难道不是很棒吗？
Mr Trump’s America will clearly try to strike a deal with Mr Putin’s Russia.
特朗普领导的美国显然将试图与普京领导的俄罗斯达成一项协议。
But what would that deal look like? Here is my best guess.
但这将是怎样的一项协议呢？以下是我猜测的最有可能的结果。
The US will end its opposition to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
美国将不再反对俄罗斯吞并克里米亚:
Although America may not agree to the formal legal incorporation of Crimea into Russia, it would accept it as a fait accompli.
尽管美国或许不会认同俄罗斯从法律上将克里米亚正式纳入版图，但美国将接受这一点为既成事实。
Following that, the US will lift economic sanctions.
此后，美国将解除对俄罗斯的经济制裁。
The Americans will also drop any suggestion that Ukraine or Georgia will join Nato.
美国还将放弃让乌克兰或者格鲁吉亚加入北约(Nato)的任何提案。
The build-up of Nato troops in the Baltic states will also be slowed or stopped.
在波罗的海国家增加部署北约驻军的步伐也会放慢或者停止。
In return for these large concessions, Russia will be expected to wind down its aggression in eastern Ukraine and not attempt to make further territorial gains there.
作为对这些巨大让步的回报，俄罗斯将被预期逐步收敛其在乌克兰东部的侵略行为，并且不再企图进一步在那里抢占领土。
Russian pressure and implicit threats towards the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will be dropped.
俄罗斯将不再对波罗的海国家（爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛）施加压力和发出隐性威胁。
Military tensions on the front line between Nato and Russia will be dialled down.
北约和俄罗斯之间的前线的军事紧张将得到缓和。
With their conflict in eastern Europe eased, the US and Russia will make common cause in the Middle East.
在东欧的冲突缓和之后，美俄双方将在中东联手推进共同事业。
The US will drop its commitment to the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and will join the Russians in an attack on the Isis militant group.
美国将放弃其推翻叙利亚总统巴沙尔.阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)的承诺，并将与俄罗斯一起打击伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国(ISIS)武装组织。
The attractions of such a deal from Mr Trump’s point of view are obvious.
在特朗普看来，这种协议的吸引力显而易见。
If it worked, it would defuse an increasingly dangerous confrontation between the US and Russia.
如能奏效，它将缓和美俄之间日益危险的对峙。
During his campaign, Mr Trump accused Hillary Clinton of risking a third world war: a reference to her promise to declare a no-fly zone over Syria, which might have led to confrontation between the US and Russian air forces.
在竞选期间，特朗普指责希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)带来让第三次世界大战爆发的风险：他指的是希拉里承诺在叙利亚上空划设禁飞区，这可能导致美俄两国的空军发生对峙。
Abandoning the Obama administration’s goal of getting rid of President Assad would also resolve the longstanding incoherence in US Syria policy, which sometimes seemed to place America on both sides of a civil war.
放弃奥巴马政府推翻阿萨德的目标，也会消除美国对叙利亚政策长期存在的不协调之处——这一政策有时似乎让美国同时站在一场内战的两边。
Reducing tensions in eastern Europe would also be a considerable prize given that Russia has just moved nuclear weapons into the territorial enclave of Kaliningrad, which lies between Poland and Lithuania.
考虑到俄罗斯刚刚在夹在波兰和立陶宛中间的飞地加里宁格勒部署核武，减缓东欧的紧张也将是一个相当大的收获。
Finally, the lifting of sanctions and the return to commerce as usual would appeal to the businessman in Mr Trump.
最后，解除对俄罗斯的制裁、恢复经贸往来也会迎合特朗普的商人意识。
Yet while the attractions of such a deal are clear, the potential pitfalls are huge.
然而，尽管这样的协议显然具有吸引力，但其中也暗藏了巨大的陷阱。
First, allying with the butchers of Aleppo would involve a level of calculating amorality that will revolt many in America and Europe.
首先，与阿勒颇的屠夫们结盟带有一定程度的不道德盘算，这将让美国和欧洲的很多人感到恶心。
Second, it involves placing a huge amount of trust in Mr Putin’s willingness to keep his side of the bargain — rather than simply pocketing western concessions and then coming back for more, perhaps in the Baltic states.
第二，这意味着要对普京寄予极大的信任，相信他会信守自己的协议承诺，而不会只是把西方的让步照单全收，然后得寸进尺地索求更多让步（比如对于波罗的海国家）。
Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives and now likely to get a top job under Mr Trump, said recently that Estonia is in the suburbs of St Petersburg — which hardly suggests an unequivocal commitment to the independence of that country.
有望在特朗普的新政府中获得一个顶级任命的前众议院议长纽特.金里奇(Newt Gingrich)最近表示，爱沙尼亚坐落在圣彼得堡郊区——这种话不像是对爱沙尼亚主权独立的明确承诺。
The amorality of making common cause with presidents Assad and Putin is unlikely to trouble Mr Trump.
与阿萨德和普京联手的不道德性质，不太可能让特朗普感到不安。
Asked early in the campaign about Mr Putin’s alleged habit of killing journalists, Mr Trump replied: Our country does plenty of killing too.
在竞选的早期，他曾被问及如何看待普京据称存在的暗杀新闻从业人员的不良习惯，特朗普答道：我们国家也杀了不少人。
Mr Trump has also endorsed torture, so is unlikely to be squeamish about a de facto alliance with the Assad regime.
特朗普还赞同刑讯，因此他不太可能因为在事实上与阿萨德政权结盟而心烦意乱。
Even so, it would be a huge gamble for the new US president to place his faith in his wily, experienced Russian counterpart.
即使如此，美国新总统选择相信狡猾老练的俄罗斯总统，也是一场豪赌。
If Mr Putin were to renege on his promises, Mr Trump would look like a chump, and he hates that.
如果普京背信弃义，特朗普会显得像个白痴，而他会憎恨那种结局。
In the end, a lot may depend on how Mr Trump and his advisers assess Russian motives.
归根结底，很多事情要取决于特朗普和他的顾问们如何评估俄罗斯方面的动机。
Most of the foreign policy establishment in Washington will warn Mr Trump to be deeply suspicious of Mr Putin and will argue that any American concessions will be seen as weakness and encourage further Russian aggression.
华盛顿的多数外交政策建制派人士会警告特朗普，要深度怀疑普京，并主张：美国的任何让步将被视为软弱，鼓励俄罗斯发起进一步的侵略。
But a rival school of thought argues that what Mr Putin wants, above all, is respect.
但一个对立的思想学派主张：普京最想要的是尊重。
This school believes that if Washington treats Moscow as an equal, and makes it clear that America has no intention of encouraging Russia’s liberal opposition, then a new deal with Russia is possible.
这个学派相信，如果华盛顿把莫斯科视为平起平坐的伙伴，并明确表示美国无意鼓励俄罗斯的自由主义反对派，那么与俄罗斯达成新协议是可能的。
A deal constructed along these lines would essentially represent a return to a Nixonian approach to Moscow, with the White House attempting a new form of detente with the Kremlin.
按照这种思路构建的协议，本质上将意味着回归尼克松时代的对俄策略，白宫试图与克里姆林宫达成一种新形式的缓和。
It is even possible that 93-year-old Henry Kissinger, who served as President Richard Nixon’s secretary of state,
甚至有可能的是，当年理查德.尼克松(Richard Nixon)总统的国务卿、现已93岁的亨利.基辛格(Henry Kissinger)将扮演顾问或者中介角色。基辛格仍在四处奔波，本月还应邀访问莫斯科。
