我国劳动力5年减少2千万 2050年或降到7亿左右

China's working-age Population is expected to continue to decline in 2016 after 20 million stepped out of the market in the past five years, according to an expert.

一位专家近日表示，过去5年间我国劳动年龄人口减少了2000万，2016年这一下降趋势还将继续。

The shortage of workforce means an increase in Labor costs, industrial transfer and that technology will substitute workers, said Zeng Xiangquan, head of the school of human resources at Renmin University.

人民大学劳动人事学院院长曾湘泉指出，劳动力短缺意味着人工成本上升、产业转移和技术替代劳动力。

University graduates account for nearly half of the labor force entering the market, making a fundamental change in the quality and structure of the workforce, said Zhang Chewei, head of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长张车伟表示，大学毕业生大约占进入市场的劳动力的一半，这使得劳动力的质量和结构发生了根本性的变化。

The market is unable to provide traditional industries with the required number of workforce and the past high-input economic development mode is unsustainable, Zhang said.

张车伟称，现在的市场无法提供传统行业所需的劳动力人口，并且过去高投入的经济发展模式是不可持续的。

The country's working-age population of between 15 to 59 years old peaked at 925 million in 2011 and has fallen every year since then, with 3.45 million fall in 2012, 2.44 million in 2013, 3.71 million in 2014 and a 4.87 million drop in 2015.

我国15-59岁劳动年龄人口在2011年达到9.25亿的峰值，此后开始逐年下降。2012年减少345万，2013年减少244万，2014年减少371万，2015年减少487万。

Zeng forecasts 2016 will see a drop in the labor population leveling up or even bigger than the decrease in 2015.

曾湘泉预测，2016年劳动年龄人口的降幅将与2015年持平或更大。

The working-age population is expected to see a sharp drop from 830 million in 2030 to 700 million in 2050 at a declining speed of 7.6 million every year, said Li Zhong, a spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in July.

今年7月，人社部新闻发言人李忠曾表示，2030年-2050年，我国劳动年龄人口预计将以每年760万的速度减少，由2030年的8.3亿大幅降至2050年的7亿。