弗拉基米尔普京模式会盛行吗
Vladimir Putin will look back on 2016 as an annus mirabilis.
弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)将会把2016年视为奇迹迭出的一年。
Isolated and straining under the impact of western sanctions 12 months ago, the president has managed to transform Russia’s international fortunes thanks to an extraordinary run of good luck.
得益于一轮不寻常的好运气，在12个月前尚由于西方制裁的影响而陷于孤立、面临巨大压力的俄罗斯总统，成功实现了该国国际运势的转向。
Brexit, the migration crisis and the current surge of right-wing populism have enfeebled Europe and weakened its resolve to maintain a tough collective stance towards Russia.
英国退欧、难民危机以及右翼民粹主义异军突起，令欧洲孱弱无力，削弱了欧洲维持共同的对俄强硬立场的决心。
Putin’s military intervention in support of Bashar al-Assad has put his ally within sight of victory in the Syrian civil war.
普京为支持巴沙尔.阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)而进行的军事干预，让他的这位盟友在叙利亚内战中胜利在望。
Best of all, Donald Trump is about to enter the White House on a promise to repair US-Russia relations on the Kremlin’s terms.
最棒的是，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)将带着修复美俄关系的承诺入主白宫，还将按照克里姆林宫的条件这么做。
On every front, the tide of events appears to be flowing strongly in Putin’s direction.
在各个方面，时势的潮流似乎都朝着有利于普京的一边滚滚涌来。
The new mood was apparent last month when he met Rodrigo Duterte, his counterpart in the Philippines, at the Asia-Pacific summit.
上月，当普京在亚太峰会上会晤菲律宾总统罗德里戈.杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)时，这种新的情绪袒露无遗。
Duterte used the occasion to complain about western bullying and declared his desire to be part of a new order led by Russia and China.
杜特尔特利用那个场合抱怨西方恃强凌弱，并公开宣布他希望加入由俄中主导的新秩序。
When you consider that the remarks come from the leader of a country that has been a mainstay of the US alliance system in Asia since the early years of the Cold War, it is clear that something significant is afoot.
考虑到菲律宾自冷战之初以来一直是美国在亚洲的盟国体系的支柱，该国领导人作出这样的表态显然说明某种具有重大意义的事情正在发生。
Putin is managing to extend Russia’s diplomatic reach beyond its traditional constituency among the world’s radical and anti-American regimes.
普京正在成功地延伸俄罗斯的外交影响力，超越由世界上激进和反美政权组成的传统群体。
The source of this appeal is not difficult to understand.
这种吸引力的来源不难理解。
Putin has pioneered a style of government that corresponds with the needs and interests of the power elites in many emerging countries.
普京开创的政府风格符合许多新兴国家权力精英的需求和利益。
He has shown how politics and the media can be manipulated to guarantee governments a permanent monopoly of power while maintaining a veneer of electoral competition and normal constitutional practice.
他展示了如何操纵政治和媒体，以便在确保政府对权力永久垄断的同时，维持一层选举竞争和正常宪政活动的表象。
More importantly, he has provided a justification for rejecting established democratic principles by insisting that every country has the right determine its own path.
更重要的是，他通过坚称每个国家都有权决定自己的道路，为拒绝成熟的民主原则提供了理由。
Putin calls this mix of post-modern authoritarianism and assertive nationalism sovereign democracy.
普京把这种后现代威权主义和强硬民族主义的混合体称为主权民主。
The attraction of this model is all the stronger for having little to do with ideology.
与意识形态没什么关系令这种模式更具吸引力。
It is based principally on naked self-interest.
它主要是建立在赤裸裸的自我利益基础上。
For ruling politicians, senior state officials and the circles of private wealth and influence that surround them, sovereign democracy offers power without responsibility.
对于居统治地位的政客、高级政府官员、私人财富圈子以及他们周围的影响力来说，主权民主提供了无需承担责任的权力。
Opposition can be suppressed and marginalised to the point where there is no effective scrutiny, the rule of law ceases to apply and those with the right connections can act with impunity.
反对派可以被压制和排挤，以至于不存在有效的审查，法治不再适用，背景深厚的人能够为所欲为而不受惩罚。
Rising authoritarianism brings rising corruption as the opportunities provided by access to public resources are exploited for personal gain.
随着与公共资源近水楼台的机遇被用来牟取私利，愈演愈烈的威权主义带来越来越猖獗的腐败。
Indeed, it is a feature of such regimes that those close to them often find ways to monetise the results of political repression by seizing the assets of their opponents.
的确，这种政权的特色之一，就是与体制关系密切的人们往往会想到办法，通过攫取对手资产来获利于政治压迫的结果。
Thailand is good example of what happens when a country follows this path.
一个国家走上这条道路后会发生什么？泰国就是一个很好的例子。
Although a longstanding US ally, it has been openly pursuing closer ties with Moscow since the army seized power in a coup two years ago.
虽然泰国是美国的长期盟友，但是自两年前军队通过政变掌权后，该国一直在公开寻求加强与莫斯科方面的关系。
Trade and diplomatic relations have been upgraded and Russia is supplying weapons currently denied to the junta by the US.
双方的贸易和外交往来已经升级，俄罗斯正在向泰国提供美国现在拒绝向军政府提供的武器装备。明年，泰国将按照新宪法向文官统治回归。
Preparations for a return to civilian rule under a new constitution next year resemble a Thai version of sovereign democracy.
而这一回归的筹备过程很像是泰国版的主权民主。
Elections to the lower chamber of parliament will be restored but the army will retain de facto control through a wholly appointed senate and ‘commissions’ that will oversee the work of government departments.
议会下院的选举将会恢复，但军队将通过完全由任命产生的上议院和监督政府部门运作的委员会，保留实质上的控制权。
Military tribunals regularly target opposition supporters using draconian lèse-majesté laws that leave those deemed to have insulted the monarchy liable to sentences of up to 15 years in prison.
军方的特别法庭时不时用严厉的《欺君法》(lèse-majesté law)对付反对派支持者，该法律会让那些被视为对君主不敬的人面对长达15年的监禁。
This suits the interests of the Bangkok elite, whose members enthusiastically backed the 2014 coup.
这种做法符合曼谷精英阶层的利益，这些人在2014年热情支持政变。
Those belonging to this privileged caste have put themselves above the law, using violence against their opponents and evading justice when they commit criminal acts.
这一特权阶层的人们把自身置于法律之上，他们用暴力对待反对者，并在实施犯罪行为后逃避法律制裁。
Others have used their status to seize property.
其他人利用自己的地位攫取财产。
When Nopporn Suppipat, one of Thailand’s leading entrepreneurs and an advocate of democracy, was driven out of the country after being charged with lèse-majesté, a whistle-blower alleged that a member of the elite took control of his company and misappropriated some of its funds.
泰国领先企业家之一、民主的倡导者诺蓬.素比巴(Nopporn Suppipat)在受到《欺君法》指控后被逐出泰国后，据一名告密者指控，泰国精英阶层的某个成员接管了他的企业，并盗用了该公司部分资金。
Since the coup, Thailand has recorded the worst economic performance in Southeast Asia and the business environment continues to deteriorate.
自政变以来，泰国已录得东南亚最糟糕经济表现，商业环境持续恶化。
Turkey is another formerly solid US ally that seems to have embraced the Putin model, despite a brief rift with Russia over Syria and the shooting down of a Russian warplane.
土耳其是另一个似乎已热情拥抱普京模式的美国前坚定盟友——尽管该国曾因叙利亚问题和击落俄罗斯一架战机而与俄罗斯短暂翻脸。
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authoritarian lurch, which had already produced a sustained attack on media freedom, has become even more pronounced following the attempted coup in July.
本已持续压制媒体自由的土耳其总统雷杰普.塔伊普.埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)，在今年7月的未遂政变之后变本加厉，进一步走上威权道路。
The government has arrested 37,000 people, including MPs and journalists, sacked or suspended around 100,000 state employees and closed down 170 media enterprises.
土耳其政府已逮捕包括议员和记者在内的3.7万人，解雇或停职约10万名政府雇员，关闭了170家传媒企业。
The assets of people accused of supporting the coup have been seized by presidential decree.
被控支持政变的人士的资产依照总统令被没收。
A total of 252 enterprises worth an estimated $13bn have been taken over,
总计252家企业被接管，其价值估计为130亿美元。
transforming the state into Turkey’s largest conglomerate almost overnight.
此举几乎在一夜之间令政府变成土耳其规模最大的企业集团。
Wait to see how these businesses are disposed of and who benefits.
至于这些企业将如何处置，谁将从中受益，世人就等着看吧。
One businessman close to the ruling AKP party has already applied to buy Koza Ipek Holding, Turkey’s largest gold mining company, which was seized as part of the crackdown.
与执政的正义与发展党(AKP)关系密切的一位商人已申请买下土耳其最大金矿企业Koza Ipek Holding，该公司正是在此次镇压中被没收的。
Much the same can be said of Egypt since its first democratically elected government was overthrown in a military coup in 2013.
自埃及首个民选政府在2013年被军事政变推翻以来，可以说埃及的情况也十分类似。
Censorship, rigged elections and controls on civil society have gone hand in hand with efforts to build closer relations with Moscow.
与审查制度、被操纵的选举以及管控公民社会相伴出现的，是与莫斯科方面打造更密切关系的努力。
The Egyptian foreign minister has angrily rejected what he calls western tutelage over human rights.
埃及外长愤怒地拒绝了他所称的西方人权说教。
As in Turkey and Thailand, the assets of those considered hostile to the regime have been targeted for seizure.
与土耳其和泰国类似，那些被认为对政权怀有敌意的人们的资产，已了没收的目标。
By early 2016, the Egyptian authorities had confiscated the assets of more than 1,300 people.
截至2016年初，埃及当局已没收逾1300人的资产。
Although the measures were supposed to target members of the Muslim Brotherhood, the list included liberals, socialists and human rights defenders.
尽管这些举措理应是以穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)的成员为目标，但被没收财产的人员名单也包括自由派人士、社会主义者和人权卫士。
In September, a court upheld an earlier ruling to freeze the assets of five human rights activists and three organisations, including, the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies.
今年9月，一家法院维持了早先的判决，冻结五名人权活动人士和开罗人权研究所(Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies)等三个组织的资产。
For Putin, imitation may be the sincerest form of flattery but sooner or later the limitations of his model will become apparent, for Russia and for those who seek emulate it.
对普京来说，效仿或许是最真诚的奉承方式，但他这种模式的局限性迟早会暴露出来，无论对俄罗斯还是对那些试图模仿俄罗斯的国家来说都是如此。
Russia is stuck in a rut of stagnation and dependency on oil exports because it cannot attract the investment and technology needed to modernise its economy.
由于无法吸引经济现代化所需的投资和技术，俄罗斯陷入了经济停滞和依赖石油出口的糟糕状态。
That weakness will continue to limit its progress even after the oil price recovers.
即使油价复苏，这种弱点也依然会局限俄罗斯的发展。
It’s not that business can’t flourish under authoritarian regimes – countries like China and Singapore prove that it can.
这并不是说威权体制下商业不会繁荣——中国和新加坡等国证明那是可能的。
The problem arises when authoritarianism provides cover for a predatory elite to overturn property rights and loot the national wealth with impunity.
出问题的情况是，威权体制为一个掠夺性的精英阶层提供掩护，让他们可以无视产权制度、攫取国家财富而不受处罚。
Business needs the kind of predictable investment climate that Putinism is unable to provide.
企业需要的是那种可预测的投资环境，而普京主义提供不了这种环境。
Without the benefit of natural resources to cushion the impact, Putin’s new admirers may find that out sooner than most.
若没有自然资源方面的优势来缓冲这种影响，普京的新崇拜者也许会比多数人更快发现这一点。
