看风云际会 谁会点燃中国经济火药桶

The deepening property glut in China's smaller and medium-sized cities is the kindling that could set ablaze the country's plans for steady 7.5% growth. If that's the case, what's the match?

中国二三线城市房地产供给过剩现象愈演愈烈，可能导致中国经济难以实现7.5%的平稳增长。问题是，谁会点燃这个火药桶？

Most economists -- even those skeptical of China's growth story--say the country isn't likely to experience a 'Lehman moment.' They don't expect to see one outsized decision that implodes the economy, the way the U.S. government's decision not to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy in 2008 set in motion a quick chain reaction that ended in a deep global recession.

多数经济学家都觉得中国不太可能遭遇“雷曼时刻”，即便是那些看空中国经济的人也不否认这点。他们相信中国政府不会像美国那样做出让经济崩溃的决定。2008年，美国政府拒绝挽救濒临破产的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)，其引发的连锁反应把全球经济拖入一场大衰退。

Rather, the risk for China is a much deeper slowing of growth than officials anticipate, or can head off. Japan is more the model there. Like China, it too was rapidly growing. It also had an activist government that expected companies to follow its lead. And it had a huge stock of foreign exchange reserves. None of that helped stave off the effects of a real-estate bust that saddled the banks with bad debts, constricted credit and made ordinary people wary of spending.

中国面临的风险在于经济放缓的程度超出政府的预期或是超出政府的解救能力。日本是中国的前车之鉴。和中国一样，日本经济也曾经高速增长，也曾有过非常主动的、希望企业听从指挥的政府，也曾拥有巨额的外汇储备，但这一切都没能避免房地产崩盘的连锁效应，结果是银行坏账缠身，银根紧缩，普通人捂紧钱袋子。

'The concern is that China will repeat Japan's story in the 1990s,' says JP Morgan economist Haibin Zhu. 'Financial risks continue. Debt keeps getting rolled over. That creates zombie banks and zombie corporations. Eventually that causes the GDP to weaken.'

摩根大通(JP Morgan)经济学家朱海斌表示，人们担心中国重蹈上世纪90年代日本的覆辙。朱海斌说，金融风险持续存在，债务不断展期，催生出僵尸银行和僵尸公司，最终会导致国内生产总值(GDP)走软。

One obvious candidate for the match is an overall slowdown in growth. In that scenario, consumers reduce spending; developers can't unload property; debts go unpaid; banks stop lending; GDP growth slows even more. And so on.

相关报道中国楼市增长放缓 市场各方忧心忡忡博客：有关中国楼市供应过剩的问与答博客：营口房地产市场冷过冬天中国经济整体减速可能会成为爆发点。这不难理解，因为一旦发生这种情况，消费者就会减少支出，开发商卖不掉楼盘，无法偿还债务，银行就会停止放贷，导致GDP增速进一步放缓和其他连锁反应。

Paradoxically, reform measures meant to solidify China's growth over the long term could also become the match that could touch off a conflagration. A big push for interest rate liberalization or capital account liberalization or property taxes could backfire.

矛盾的是，旨在巩固中国长期经济增长的措施同时也可能引发危机。寻求利率市场化、资本账户开放或征收房产税的重大举措可能适得其反。

How? Let's take them one by one.

为什么？让我们逐个分析。

For one, introducing more market forces is likely to push up interest rates, which would make it harder for people and companies to finance their debts and cause property prices to fall further.

首先，让更多市场力量发挥作用有可能推高利率，这会让个人和企业更难为其债务融资，并导致房价进一步下滑。

Secondly, letting Chinese savers invest overseas could give them a way to diversify their portfolios and make house purchases in China much less attractive. For decades, China has essentially held savers captive and given them few ways to make decent returns other than investing in real estate.

第二，允许中国储蓄者在海外投资可能让他们得以将投资组合多元化，而在中国购房的吸引力就会大大减弱。几十年来，中国实质上困住了储蓄者，让他们除了投资房地产之外没有什么途径可以获得可观的回报。

Finally, introducing a property tax could certainly help in places like Beijing, where prices are prices are so high that only the wealthy can afford to buy. But a tax would knock down prices even further in the third- and fourth-tier cities that are already have too many apartments to sell.

最后，开征房产税在北京这样的大城市肯定能发挥作用，这些城市的房价极高，只有富人才买得起。但在住宅供应已经过剩的三四线城市，房产税会进一步打压房价。

'There are a myriad of potential triggers,' says Nomura analyst Zhiwei Zhang.

野村经济学家张智威说，有众多可能的触发因素。

Mr. Zhang says fear of reform backfiring in the property market could play out a different way too--by becoming a big obstacle to pushing through reforms already pledged by China's leaders.

张智威说，对改革在房地产市场产生反作用的担忧还可能产生另外的效果——成为推进中国领导人已承诺改革的一个重大障碍。

So what might the Chinese government do to prevent or address a property problem? One possibility, economists say, is ending certain housing purchase restrictions. In cities like Beijing or Shanghai, where there is plenty of pent-up demand, buyers need to put down as much as 60% in mortgage for a second home, for instance.

那么，中国政府可能会采取些什么措施来预防或应对房地产行业的问题？经济学家们说，一个可能是，结束某些购房限制。比如，在存在大量被压抑需求的北京、上海等城市，购房者贷款购买第二套住房时需要交60%的首付。

The government has hinted it's open to such a change. Its 2014 economic work plan says it will 'regulate housing differently in different cities in light of local conditions,' suggesting that it might lift restrictions in China's biggest cities. The government could additionally consider permitting more buildings or making financing easier, which would boost supply and eventually reduce prices. But its plan aren't clear. For example, the work plan also repeats last year's pledge to 'curb demand for housing for speculation and investment purposes.'

中国政府已暗示，对取消某些住房限购措施持开放态度。2014年的《政府工作报告》称，要针对不同城市的情况对住房市场进行分类调控。这是在暗示政府可能会取消一线城市的限购措施。政府可能还会考虑允许更多项目开工或者放宽融资环境，这将增加住房供应，从而最终压低房价。但政府的方案并不明确。比如，《政府工作报告》还重申了去年的承诺，也就是要抑制投机投资性住房需求。

And those sort of measures won't do much in places where demand is lacking. To jog housing in those areas, say economists, the government would probably need to cut interest rates to boost consumption and lending. The trouble there is that localities may interpret monetary easing as a signal to free up lending to real estate developers to build even more housing -- the very problem the government is trying to deal with now.

在缺乏市场需求的地区，这些措施不会起到多大作用。经济学家说，要提振这些地区的房地产市场，政府可能需要通过下调利率来促进消费和借贷。但问题是，地方政府可能会将货币宽松措施解读为“解冻”对地产开发商信贷投放的信号，从而造成开发商修建更多住房，而这正是政府目前努力解决的问题。

Tsinghua University economist Li Daokui, a former central bank adviser, says a slowdown in real estate prices is bound to reduce revenue to local governments and produce bankruptcies. To get ahead of the problem, he says, China's bankruptcy law needs to be strengthened and a bailout fund created as a way to restructure debts.

清华大学经济学家、前中国央行货币政策委员李稻葵表示，房价增势放缓势必会导致地方财政收入减少并引发企业破产。他说，要预先对这一问题做好准备，中国就需要完善破产法，并设立一只救助基金作为债务重组的渠道。

'There is room for the government to be proactive,' he says. If it isn't, he fears 'a potential panic, like a bank run.'

李稻葵说，政府有未雨绸缪的空间，如果不事先采取行动，他担心可能会出现类似银行挤兑的市场恐慌。