第三季度中国经济增速跌破7%

China’s economy grew at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis in the third quarter, as growth in services failed to make up for weakness in manufacturing and property.

今年第三季度，中国经济增速降至全球金融危机以来最低水平，原因是服务业的增长未能抵消制造业和房地业的疲软。

China's statistics bureau said on Monday that gross domestic product rose by 6.9 per cent in the third quarter in inflation-adjusted terms, down from 7 per cent in the first two quarters and 7.3 per cent in the same period in 2014. It was the slowest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of 2009 but higher than expectations of 6.7 per cent in a Bloomberg poll.

中国国家统计局周一表示，按可比价格计算，第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长6.9%，增速低于今年第一、第二季度的7%以及2014年同期的7.3%。这是自2009年第一季度以来的最慢季度增速，但比彭博(Bloomberg)调查得出的预期值6.7%要高。

Monday’s figure suggests that China may struggle to meet the full-year growth target of “around 7 per cent” that Premier Li Keqiang announced in March. The National Bureau of Statistics said last month that growth as low as 6.5 per cent would be within the target range.

周一的数据表明，中国或许很难实现李克强总理3月份时宣布的“7%左右”的全年增长目标。国家统计局上月表示，即使今年增长率低至6.5%，也在目标范围内。

While manufacturing and property construction have slowed for more than a year, financial services provided a temporary boost to growth earlier in 2015 as brokerages raked in commissions from the stock market boom.

尽管制造业和房地产建设放缓已持续一年多，但今年早些时候，由于券商从股市繁荣中赚到大量佣金，金融业为经济增长提供了暂时的提振。

Yet services growth remained strong in the third quarter, with nominal growth falling only slightly to 11.9 per cent annually from 12.1 per cent in the second quarter.

不过，服务业增长依然强劲，年化名义增长率仅从第二季度的12.1%略微下滑至11.9%。

Stagnation continued in the industrial sector, however, where nominal growth was roughly flat at 0.2 per cent, down from 1.6 per cent in the second quarter. The statistics bureau does not break down real growth figures by sector.

然而，工业部门的增长仍然极其缓慢，名义增长率仅为0.2%，低于第二季度的1.6%。国家统计局没有公布各个行业的实际增长率。

Economists agree that a long-term slowdown in Chinese growth is inevitable due to structural factors such as a shrinking labour force and the end of “catch-up growth” as China completes the transition from a rural to industrial economy. But a cyclical slowdown in manufacturing, oversupply of housing and weak foreign demand for Chinese exports is adding to the pain.

经济学家一致认为，由于结构性原因——比如劳动力减少以及农业经济向工业经济转型完成导致的“追赶型增长”结束——中国增长的长期放缓是不可避免的。但是，制造业的周期性放缓、住房供应量过高、以及外部对中国出口产品需求疲弱，正在加剧这一痛苦。

The government has announced plans to boost spending on infrastructure projects to make up for the fall in property and manufacturing-linked investment.

中国政府已经宣布了一些计划，旨在扩大基建项目支出，以抵消房地产和制造业相关投资下滑带来的影响。

Economists also expect the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates again before the end of 2015, as well as make another reduction in banks’ required reserve ratio. That would follow five rate cuts since November and three RRR cuts in 2015.

经济学家还预计，中国央行在今年底前会再次下调基准利率，并会再次下调商业银行存款准备金率。此前，中国央行自去年11月以来已五次降息，在2015年已三次降准。