日本第三季度GDP由萎缩修正为增长

Not only is Japan not in recession, it was growing strongly in the third quarter of 2015, as the country’s gross domestic product data cemented its reputation for unreliability.

今年第三季度，日本经济非但没有衰退，反而还呈现出强劲增长。日本国内生产总值(GDP)数据是出了名的不可靠，这一反复让其进一步坐实了这一名声。

Growth for the third quarter was revised on Tuesday from an annualised fall of 0.8 per cent to an annualised rise of 1 per cent, erasing the technical “recession” declared just three weeks ago.

周二，日本经济第三季度的年化增速从-0.8%修正至1%。这一结果使得3周前宣布的技术性“衰退”不复存在。

The revision was far greater than analysts’ forecasts of a 0.1 per cent rise. It changes the whole picture of the Japanese economy towards healthy growth — assuming the revised figure is accurate.

分析师预期的修正结果为增长0.1%，此次修正的结果远高于分析师的预期。此次修正重绘了日本经济的整体图景、显示出日本经济正走向健康增长——假如修正后的数字准确的话。

Investment was the main force behind the revisions: it was amended from a quarter-on-quarter fall of 1.3 per cent to a rise of 0.6 per cent. That meant that instead of subtracting 0.7 percentage point from annualised growth, it added 0.3 percentage point.

投资是此次修正的重头：第三季度，投资由环比萎缩1.3%修正至增长0.6%。这意味着，投资并没有从年化增速中抹去0.7个百分点，而是为其增添了0.3个百分点。

Companies also whittled down inventories less than previously thought. Whereas in the first estimate inventories knocked 2.1 percentage points off annualised growth, that was revised down to 0.8 percentage point.

企业削减库存的速度也低于此前预期。在初始估值中，库存从年化增速中抹去了2.1个百分点，此次被修正为抹去了0.8个百分点。

The first estimate of Japan’s GDP, which relies on partial survey data, is notoriously unreliable and prone to large revisions. A 1.8 percentage point shift from expansion to contraction is rare, however.

日本GDP初值是出了名的不可靠，往往会经历大幅修正。然而，由萎缩修正为扩张且修正幅度达1.8个百分点的的情况相当罕见。

Japan’s government is pushing companies to increase investment at home and raise wages in order to boost demand, stimulate the economy and escape deflation.

日本政府正敦促企业扩大国内投资和提升薪资，以提振需求、刺激经济和摆脱通缩。