12月份中国出口跌幅超预期

The dollar value of China’s exports fell markedly more than expected last month and import growth more than halved, while revisions to November data erased what had appeared to be a long-hoped-for return to growth for outbound shipments.

上个月，以美元计的中国出口跌幅显著超过预期，进口增幅也下滑一半以上。同时，对11月份数据的修正，抹去了原本疑似出现的人们长久期待的对外出口增长。

Exports shrank 6.1 per cent year on year in dollar terms to $209.42bn in December, according to figures from the General Administration of Customs. That fall was 2.1 percentage points more severe than a median of economist estimates and worse than a revised drop of 1.6 per cent (previously 0.1 per cent growth) in November.

根据中国海关总署(General Administration of Customs)发布的数据，12月份以美元计的出口额同比减少6.1%至2094.2亿美元。这一跌幅比经济学家预期的中数多了2.1个百分点，也大于11月份修正后1.6%的跌幅（修正前该数字为增长0.1%）。

Imports grew 3.1 per cent year-on-year in dollar terms to $168.6bn in December after growing a revised 4.7 per cent (previously 6.7 per cent) the previous month. That rate was roughly in line with a median forecast of 3 per cent growth.

12月份以美元计的进口同比增长3.1%至1686亿美元，而上个月修正后的增幅为4.7%（修正前为6.7%）。这一增长幅度大致符合3%预期中数。

Trade flows brought China’s balance of trade to $40.82bn, roughly $7.2bn below expectations and down about $3.6bn from November’s revised level of $44.23bn (previously $44.61bn). That balance came to Rmb275.4bn in local-currency terms.

贸易往来令中国该月贸易顺差达到408.2亿美元，比预期低大约72亿美元，也比11月份修正后442.3亿美元的水平（修正前该数字为446.1亿美元）低了36亿美元左右。以人民币计的这一顺差则为2754亿元人民币。

What growth dollar exports did see among major trading partners came from shipments to the US, which rose 5.5 per cent year on year to $37.06bn. Exports to South Korea also showed growth of 8.3 per cent to $10.2bn.

在主要贸易伙伴中，以美元计的出口确实出现增长的包括对美国的出口，同比增长5.5%，达到370.6亿美元。而对韩国的出口也显示增长8.3%至102亿美元。

But shipments to other destinations fared far worse, particularly those to re-exporter Hong Kong, which saw the dollar value of exports from China contract 26.3 per cent year on year to $33.84bn. Shipments to EU countries also fell 4.7 per cent to $33.5bn, while those to Japan dropped 5.5 per cent to $11.27bn.

不过，对其他地区的出口却差多了，尤其是对转口地区香港的贸易，该月以美元计的对香港出口同比下滑26.3%至338.4亿美元。对欧盟(EU)国家的出口也下滑4.7%至335亿美元。而对日本出口则下滑5.5%至112.7亿美元。

In local currency terms exports managed slight growth of 0.6 per cent last month, besting expectations of 0.1 per cent contraction but still down substantially from growth of 5.9 per cent in November. Imports grew 10.8 per cent in renminbi terms, more than double the expected 4.8 per cent but down 2.2 percentage points from the month prior.

以人民币计算，12月份出口环比成功增长0.6%，超过了收缩0.1%的预期，不过仍大大低于11月份5.9%的增幅。以人民币计的进口增长10.8%，是预期4.8%的增幅的两倍以上，不过仍比上个月低2.2个百分点。