中日争夺亚洲贸易协定控制权

The contest to shape a massive Asian trade pact has stepped up a gear as China and Japan push different visions of a deal that would cover almost half the world’s population and a third of its economic output.

各方争相塑造大型亚洲贸易协定的努力已经升级，中国和日本正在力推不同的协定愿景，该协定将覆盖全球近半数人口和三分之一经济产出。

China is pushing for a rapid conclusion to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, with a “low-quality” deal mainly focused on lowering tariffs between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its neighbours.

中国正在推动以一项聚焦于降低东盟(ASEAN)与其邻国间关税的“低品质”协议，来尽快达成《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，简称RCEP）。

But officials in Japan and Asean insist RCEP should not be Chinese-led. Beijing wants to cast itself as a defender of global free trade for political reasons, they say, after the US quit another huge deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Tokyo and Canberra want a high-quality RCEP deal covering services and investment — half hoping this will bring the US back to the TPP table.

但日本和东盟的官员却坚持认为RCEP不应由中国人牵头。这些官员表示，在美国退出另一项大型协定——《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）——之后，出于政治原因，中国想把自身塑造为全球自由贸易的捍卫者。东京和堪培拉方面想要的是一项覆盖服务业和投资的高品质RCEP协定，它们在一定程度上希望这会把美国拉回TPP谈判桌前。

The result is a tug of war, with Japan and Australia on one side and China on the other. The prize is a deal that could reshape global trade, economically integrating the world’s most populous region and making its supply chains even more competitive, with big consequences for US strategy and business in the region. “In the past few years, people were looking at TPP,” says one Japanese negotiator. “Now this is the largest free trade negotiation that’s alive and kicking.”

其结果就是一场拔河比赛，日本和澳大利亚在一边，中国在另一边。比赛的奖品是一项可能会重塑全球贸易、整合世界人口最多地区的经济并让该地区的供应链更具竞争力、对美国在该地区的战略和生意造成重大影响的协定。“过去几年，人们都盯着TPP，”日本的一名谈判代表称，“现在，这才是最大的、活力十足的自由贸易谈判。”

How that negotiation fits in will be high on the agenda at a meeting in Chile this week, where TPP member economies, China and others are gathering to discuss the future of the trade agenda in the Pacific Rim. The US, which just months ago would have been leading the conversation, has decided not to send any senior officials and will be represented by its local ambassador.

这一谈判如何适应眼下的局面，将成为本周在智利召开的一次会议的重要议题。在这次会议上，TPP成员经济体、中国及其他国家将聚在一处，讨论环太平洋贸易议程的未来。几个月前还可能主导此次对话的美国，已决定不派遣任何高级官员与会，只由美国驻当地的大使代为出席。

Whereas TPP spanned the Pacific from the US to Australia, Japan and Vietnam, RCEP is meant to build on existing trade deals between the 10 Asean countries and six neighbours: Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

TPP覆盖从美国到澳大利亚、日本和越南的整个太平洋，RCEP则打算建构在10个东盟国家和其6个邻国——日本、中国、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰和印度——之间现有贸易协定的基础上。

Given that a primary goal of TPP was to write “high-quality” trading rules in areas such as investment and intellectual property, some Chinese officials could not contain their glee when Mr Trump sounded its death knell. “Trump has given us a grand gift, though he does not know it,” Jin Yi’nan, a People’s Liberation Army general, said in January. A video of his speech has since gone viral.

由于TPP的一个主要目标是在投资、知识产权等领域书写“高品质”贸易规则，特朗普(Donald Trump)敲响TPP丧钟的那一刻，一些中国官员喜不自胜。今年1月，中国人民解放军(PLA)少将金一南表示：“特朗普今天已经给我们送了个大礼了，虽然他不知道。”金一南这次讲话的视频在网上广泛传播。

“[The TPP] was meant to contain China economically,” General Jin added. “They collaborated to target China and kept China out?.?.?.?Now Trump says the US will exit TPP. What a wonderful gift. It could not be better.” Beijing now embraces RCEP as a "TPP-lite" alternative from which the US is excluded.

金一南还表示：“TPP经济上围堵中国……它们是联手的，TPP把中国封在外头，就对准中国……特朗普宣布退出TPP，多好的事情！对我们太好了！”北京方面现在对RCEP很热情，把它当作一项将美国排除在外的“精简版TPP”。

But not everyone shares Beijing’s vision, and that is shaping the dynamics of RCEP. China wants an early deal — by the end of 2017 — but Japan and Australia are in less of a hurry. “If you don’t provide Asean with enough time, then low quality is their answer,” says the Japanese negotiator, because it takes time for the group to co-ordinate. Both sides are lobbying Asean countries heavily, especially the Philippines, which chairs the group this year, and Indonesia, original sponsor of the talks. If Asean takes a position, Japan and China will have to move towards it to reach a deal.

但并非所有人都认同北京方面的愿景，这一情况决定着RCEP背后的较量。中国想早日达成协定——在2017年底前达成——日本和澳大利亚则没那么着急。上述日本谈判代表说：“如果你不给东盟足够的时间，那么低品质就是它们的答案。”这是因为，东盟国家需要时间来相互协调。现在，两个阵营都在大力游说东盟国家，尤其是今年的东盟主席国菲律宾和谈判最初发起方印度尼西亚。一旦东盟确定了立场，日本和中国将不得不靠拢东盟以求达成一项协定。

China’s position is not a problem for Vietnam, one of the larger Asean countries, says Nghia Trong Pham, a UK-based academic who was a TPP negotiator for Hanoi. “Because RCEP is a multilateral agreement, China cannot play a monopoly role and impose their rules on other partners, particularly India, Japan and South Korea,” he says.

常驻英国的学者、曾代表越南参加TPP谈判的Nghia Trong Pham表示，对越南而言，中国的立场不是什么问题。他说：“由于RCEP是多边协定，中国搞不了一言堂、将他们的规则强加于其他伙伴国，尤其是印度、日本和韩国。”

India, with different interests to the other players, is the other big question. New Delhi is reluctant to grant Chinese manufacturers the same import terms as Asean, but sees opportunities for services trade if Asean opens up. Negotiators say India is more engaged in the talks this year but there is still no agreement about letting it have different tariffs on different participants.

印度则是另一个大问题，它的利益与其他国家不同。印度不愿给予中国制造商与东盟相同的进口条款，但看好东盟开放给印度服务贸易带来的机会。谈判代表们表示，今年印度对谈判的参与更积极了，但目前各方仍未就允许印度对不同参与国征收不同的关税达成一致。

If an RCEP deal is reached, the US may rue abandoning TPP. It would mean, for example, that Japan and Korea get preferential access to Vietnam’s emerging car market, which the US would have got too as part of TPP. In this scenario, Tokyo and Canberra hope US corporations may put pressure on the Trump administration to think again, and come back to TPP.

如果RCEP能够达成，美国或许会为抛弃TPP感到后悔。举例来说，达成RCEP将意味着日本和韩国获得了越南崛起中的汽车市场的优惠准入，而美国若参与TPP原本也会获得这一权益。在这种情形下，东京方面和堪培拉方面希望美国企业或许会向特朗普政府施加压力，要它重新考虑并回归TPP。

But everyone involved says a deal among such disparate parties will be tough. “Even though politically it may seem RCEP is the best avenue for trade liberalisation, practically it is very difficult,” says Rajiv Biswas, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Singapore. “I think expectations have been raised too much.”

不过，每位参与者都表示，各方之间的差异如此之大，要达成一项协定将十分困难。IHS环球透视(IHS Global Insight)驻新加坡经济学家拉吉夫?比斯瓦斯(Rajiv Biswas)表示：“虽然从政治角度讲RCEP似乎是通往贸易自由化的最佳途径，但从实践角度讲这是很难的。我认为人们的期望被抬得太高了。”