欧美自由贸易协定弊大于利

There is a lot of hype about the prospects of an EU-US free trade agreement, especially in the wake of Barack Obama's State of the Union address last week. Supporters point to the benefits such an agreement could bring to both economies. Yet the costs are likely to outweigh the benefits. Most importantly, a transatlantic deal will undermine multilateralism, in particular the long-overdue completion of the Doha round, and weaken multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organisation.

围绕欧盟-美国自由贸易协定问题一直存在着大量的炒作，特别是在巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)上周发表国情咨文演讲之后。支持者指出了此协定可能给两个经济体带来的好处。然而，要为协定付出的代价很可能大于它带来的好处。最重要的是，跨大西洋协定可能会危及多边主义的基础，特别是人们期待已久的多哈(Doha)回合谈判。另外，此协定会减弱世贸组织(WTO)等多边机构的影响力。

An FTA will of course bring some benefits to the EU and the US via enhanced trade. The removal of trade barriers might raise the gross domestic product of the EU by 190bn and of the US by 100bn, according to estimates by the German Marshall Fund.

自由贸易协定能加强贸易联系，当然会给欧盟和美国带来一些好处。根据德国马歇尔基金会(German Marshall Fund)的估算，消除贸易壁垒可能会令欧盟(EU)的国内生产总值(GDP)增加1900亿欧元，令美国的GDP增加1000亿欧元。

While these figures are not negligible, they constitute rather modest gains – boosts of only 1.5 per cent and 0.9 per cent of GDP to the EU and US respectively. The largest potential benefit from an EU-US free trade deal would be enhanced competition among companies that become part of a much larger common market. Yet that is difficult to quantify.

尽管1900亿欧元和1000亿欧元并不是小数字，但实际的意义相当有限——它们相对于欧盟和美国GDP的比例分别仅为1.5%和0.9%。欧盟-美国自由贸易协定可能带来的最大好处是，随着这两个地区结成一个更大的共同市场，市场中企业间的竞争将会加剧。不过，这种好处很难进行量化。

Even these modest estimates are based on the hope that a comprehensive abolition of trade barriers can be achieved. This is more than doubtful, in particular as some of the largest trade barriers erected by the EU are on agricultural products, while the US is a major exporter of agricultural products.

即便这有限的好处也是基于一个假定，即真的可以全面撤销贸易壁垒。这种假定能否实现非常令人怀疑，特别是考虑到欧盟建立的最大的贸易壁垒中有一些是针对农产品的，而美国正是一个农产品出口大国。

The recent EU budget deal alone assigns about 370bn for the common agricultural policy over the next seven years. Do we believe the EU will now alter its stance on agriculture to allow an FTA to be a more meaningful achievement?

单是在不久前达成的欧盟预算协议中，今后7年的共同农业政策支出达3700亿欧元。我们能相信欧盟会改变其对农业的立场，令自由贸易协定取得更实在的进展吗？

However, the main drawback of an EU-US FTA is that it might extinguish the remaining hope of achieving a truly multilateral trade agreement. The WTO's Doha round, which commenced in 2001, is paralysed and lingering unfinished.

不过，欧盟-美国自由贸易协定最大的问题在于，它可能会令达成真正的多边贸易协定的最后一丝希望化为泡影。2001年启动的WTO多哈回合谈判久拖不决，如今已陷入了僵局。

The unwillingness of the EU to compromise on trade liberalisation in agriculture and of the US to accept smaller tariff cuts for emerging markets have played no small part in the failure. The negotiation of an EU-US deal will not only capture the trade bureaucracy on both sides of the Atlantic, it will allow policy makers to forget the unfinished global agenda.

欧盟不愿在农业贸易自由化方面做出让步，而美国不愿接受新兴市场较低的关税削减额度，都对多哈回合谈判的失败起了不小的作用。欧盟和美国就贸易协定开展谈判，不仅会吸引大西洋两岸官方贸易机构的注意力，还会令两岸政策制定者把已搁浅的全球贸易议程抛诸脑后。

Furthermore, bilateralism undermines the few functioning global policy institutions. The WTO has been a success story by being a neutral, even-handed and fairly effective judge on trade disputes. Multilateral rules lose their relevance in a world where bilateral agreements come to dominate.

更重要的是，双边主义还会削弱几家正在发挥作用的全球政策机构的影响力。目前，作为解决贸易争端的中立、公平而又相当有效的裁判机构，WTO已成为一个成功范例。然而，如果双边协定占据了世界的主导地位，多边规则将会失去其影响力。