澳大利亚资源投资热潮趋冷

Australia's multiBillion-dollar spending boom on resources is losing momentum unexpectedly rapidly, with several projects on hold or cancelled as commodity prices fall and banks become less willing to lend.

随着大宗商品价格的下跌，以及银行放贷意愿的降低，澳大利亚资源领域那些动辄数十亿美元的投资项目出人意料地迅速失去了声势，多个项目被搁置，有些甚至被取消。

From copper mines in tropical Queensland state to the big iron-ore pits in the country's arid west, mining companies are laying off workers and idling equipment until metal prices rise sufficiently.

从热带昆士兰州的铜矿到西部干旱地区的大型铁矿，矿企纷纷裁减员工、停运设备，它们要等金属价格出现足够大的涨幅后才会重整旗鼓。

The cutbacks are largely in response to China, which needs vast amounts of coal for its power stations and iron ore for the steel frames in its high-rise buildings, but where demand for commodities has been slowing. Iron-ore prices, which hit a record last year, are now at a 2½-year low, and aluminum and nickel prices also are holding near multi-year lows.

它们此举主要是在对中国市场的情况做出反应。中国的电厂需要大量煤炭，生产高层建筑采用的钢铁框架需要大量铁矿石，但中国的大宗商品需求一直在减速。去年曾达历史高点的铁矿石价格现在处于两年半以来的最低水平，铝、镍价格也接近多年来的低点。

Australia's government is forecasting a 500 billion Australian dollars (US$522 billion) pipeline of mining and resources projects, spending that it hopes will ensure the economy avoids the relative stagnation experienced in Europe and the U.S. While it doesn't specify a time period, most of the spending on projects listed on the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics's website is expected to happen between 2012 and 2017.

澳大利亚政府预计，投资者在该国的矿山和资源项目上还将投入5,000亿澳元（合5,220亿美元）的资金。它希望这些投资能够确保澳大利亚经济免于像欧洲和美国那样陷入相对停滞状态。澳大利亚资源能源经济局(Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics)的网站虽然没有给出该网站所列投资项目的具体投资进度，但预计项目的多数资金会在2012年到2017年之间投入。

Already, this spending boom has helped pushed the Australian dollar above parity versus the U.S. dollar. But the Australian dollar's rise has heaped pressure on industries from tourism to education, which would need to cushion the economy if mining investment slows.

这一投资热潮已推动澳元兑美元汇率突破了1比1的水平。但澳元升值也给澳大利亚从旅游到教育等诸多产业带来了压力。如果矿业投资放缓，那么澳大利亚就需要靠这些产业来为经济提供缓冲。

In a sign the spending slowdown is starting to worry policy makers, the Reserve Bank of Australia said this month it expects investment in resources to peak in the fiscal year that ends June 30, 2014─earlier than it previously thought.

澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)本月表示，预计资源领域的投资会在截至2014年6月30日的财政年度内见顶，早于它先前的估计。这说明投资的放缓已经开始引起决策者的担忧。

'The maximum spending is around the end of next year,' Guy Debelle, the bank's assistant governor for financial markets, said last week. 'So it would be surprising if you saw even more after that.'

央行分管金融市场的助理行长德贝莱(Guy Debelle)上周说，投资最高峰将出现在下一年度的年底，如果在那之后投资进一步增长的话，那就奇怪了。

Analysts think that not all of the projects in the government's A$500 billion pipeline will happen without a major recovery in commodity prices or an increased willingness by banks to lend. That is because around half of the money is tied to projects that still need financing or the final go-ahead from regulators or company bosses.

分析师认为，如果大宗商品价格不出现重大反弹、银行放贷意愿不提高，那么政府预计的5,000亿澳元投资就不会全部成为现实。这是因为其中约一半资金所涉及的项目要么仍未落实资金，要么仍然有待监管机构或公司高层的最终批准。

'That part of the pipeline will be going through some very serious reconsideration at this time,' said Mike Elliott, leader of Ernst & Young's global mining and metals team.

安永(Ernst & Young)全球矿业与金属团队的负责人埃利奥特(Mike Elliott)说，在目前这个时候，相关方面会非常认真地重新评估这些投资项目。

Already, some flagship projects included in the government's forecast have landed on the scrap heap. In May, the Queensland state government said it won't proceed with a planned US$9 billion expansion of Abbot Point, Australia's most northerly coal port.

政府上述预测包含的一部分旗舰项目已被放弃。昆士兰州政府5月份表示不会继续推进澳大利亚最北端煤炭港口“Abbot Point”斥资90亿美元的扩建计划。

Analysts also think several other big projects, such as BHP Billiton Ltd.'s near-$30 billion expansion of the Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine in South Australia and Xstrata PLC's $7 billion Wandoan coal development in Queensland could be delayed.

分析师认为，另外多个大型项目也有可能搁浅，如必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)斥资近300亿美元扩建南澳大利亚州铜、铀矿“Olympic Dam”的计划，以及Xstrata PLC斥资70亿美元在昆士兰州开发Wandoan煤矿的计划。

A BHP spokeswoman said no decision has been made on Olympic Dam.

必和必拓一位发言人表示，公司还没有对Olympic Dam项目做出决定。

'Against a backdrop of increasing costs and falling commodity prices, we continue to focus on reducing our overheads, operating costs and nonessential expenditures,' she said.

她说，在成本上升、大宗商品价格下跌的背景下，我们继续致力于削减管理费用、运营成本和非必需支出。

Xstrata is waiting for regulators to grant it a mining license for Wandoan.

Xstrata正在等候监管机构为Wandoan煤矿发放采矿牌照。

U.K.-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates only A$284 billion will be spent on the mining and energy projects listed by Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics between this year and 2017.

美国咨询公司Wood Mackenzie估计，从今年起到2017年，资源能源经济局网站上列出的矿业和能源项目只会获得2,840亿澳元的投资。

Even this figure masks the underlying challenge facing the industry, as around 70% is tied to huge gas-export projects along Australia's coastline that are underpinned by binding sales contracts with Asian utilities lasting two decades or more. Mining projects are more vulnerable, as many don't have customers in place and their profitability depends on prices recovering.

就连这个数字也掩盖了整个行业面临的主要挑战。这个数额当中，70%的部分都与澳大利亚沿海的大型天然气出口项目有关，支撑这些项目的，是澳大利亚与亚洲地区公用事业公司之间长达20年甚至更久的销售合同。矿业项目更容易受冲击，因为很多项目还没有确定客户，其盈利能力取决于价格是否反弹。

'The risk is on the downside, and more conservative shareholder sentiment will result in the shelving of all but very compelling projects,' said Liam Twigger, managing director of Perth-based corporate advisor PCF Capital Group.

珀斯市咨询公司PCF Capital Group的执行董事特威格(Liam Twigger)说，股东们的风险承受意愿在下降，他们变得更为保守，这将使那些不是最有盈利把握的项目都被束之高阁。

The scale of recent investment, particularly in the liquefied natural gas sector, will cushion the impact on the economy and give companies breathing space to see if commodity prices rebound, debt markets open wider, and the global outlook improves.

近期的投资规模(特别是液化天然气领域的投资)将缓冲矿业投资热退潮对澳大利亚经济造成的冲击，并让企业获得喘息空间，以等待大宗商品价格反弹、债务市场降低门槛、以及全球经济前景的改善。

But each deferral of a project has repercussions in near-term spending and jobs, which may be critical for a government that has pinned hopes for a return to a balanced budget next year on a new tax on iron-ore and coal profits and a levy on carbon emissions.

但每一个项目的推迟都会对短期的投资和就业产生影响。澳大利亚政府已把下一年度实现财政平衡的希望寄托在对铁矿石和煤炭利润征收新税、并收取碳排放税之上，所以对它说来，短期内的投资和就业可能是至关重要的。

Smaller companies are already taking a more conservative stance. Ivanhoe Australia Ltd., a unit of Rio Tinto PLC, has cut up to 50 workers this year as commodity prices fell, and has said it will defer an open-pit mine targeting copper and gold in Queensland.

小公司已经在采取更为保守的做法。由于大宗商品价格下跌，力拓(Rio Tinto PLC)的子公司Ivanhoe Australia Ltd.已在今年裁员多达50人，并表示将推迟昆士兰州一个铜、金露天矿的开发。

Perth-based mining company Aquila Resources Ltd. is reducing spending on its A$5.8 billion iron-ore project in Western Australia to a minimum. It and closely held U.S. partner AMCI aim to conserve funding given changes in the operating environment, including a drop in prices for the steelmaking ingredient. The companies have already spent about A$400 million and are seeking to secure funding from China, but need a government decision on a new port that would export their ore.

珀斯矿业公司Aquila Resources Ltd.将把其西澳大利亚一个58亿澳元铁矿石项目的投资削减到最低水平。考虑到铁矿石价格下降等运营环境的变化，该公司及其未上市的美国合作伙伴AMCI打算节省资金。两家公司已经投入资金约4亿澳元，正在谋求从中国融资，但在新建一个港口以出口所产铁矿石的问题上还有待政府批准。

More serious problems have hit zinc and copper miner Kagara Ltd., which has called in administrators because of a cash-flow crisis.

锌、铜矿商Kagara Ltd.遇到的问题更加严重，由于出现现金流危机，它已召回管理人员。

'Given cost blow-outs, delays and a tough macro market, the willingness of the market to provide capital to all projects has diminished and earlier-stage and high-capital expenditure projects are definitely going to find it harder,' said Tim Day, an analyst at UBS. 'Saying this, quality projects, no matter where in the development cycle, will always attract finance.'

瑞银(UBS)分析师戴伊(Tim Day)说，考虑到成本飙升、项目推迟、市场环境严酷，市场为各种项目提供资金的意愿已经降低，处于初期开发阶段的项目以及高投入项目的处境肯定会更加艰难；话虽如此，只要是优质项目，不管是处在开发周期的哪一阶段，它总会引来资金。