中国微刺激政策显成效 或推更多措施

China's May economic data brought some pleasant surprises, with the government's 'mini-stimulus' measures credited with producing a modest turnaround after the sluggish start to the year.

中国5月份的经济数据给市场带来一些意外惊喜，因为政府的微刺激政策促使经济在年初开局不利后略有起色。

Many analysts said the data show signs the economy is stabilizing, but others said there's trouble ahead and that more support for the economy - on top of the stepped-up tax breaks and railway spending already announced - will be needed. The biggest risk to growth is the sagging property sector.

许多分析师们表示，数据显示出经济正在企稳的迹象，但是其他人则认为未来还有麻烦，需要出台更多经济扶持政策，而之前政府已经加大了对小微企业的税收扶持力度并宣布了铁路投资项目。中国经济增长面临的最大风险就是房地产行业滑坡。

'The worst is not over, we believe,' Standard Chartered economists wrote in a note to clients. 'We maintain our call that actual activity growth is likely to slow further in the third quarter.'

渣打集团(Standard Chartered)经济学家在研究报告中表示，他们认为最糟糕的时期尚未过去。他们依旧认为实际的经济活动可能在第三季度进一步放缓。

China's industrial output grew 8.8% year over year in May, up slightly from 8.7% in April. Growth in electricity output also gathered pace, rising 5.9% year over year after a 4.4% gain in April. Nominal retail sales were stronger, and there was an uptick in the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index.

中国5月份工业增加值同比增长了8.8%，增幅略微高于4月份的8.7%。发电量增幅也扩大，由4月份的4.4%增加至5.9%。名义零售额增幅扩大，此外官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)也上升。

Barclays -0.92% economists wrote they were raising their second quarter growth forecast to 7.4% - from 7.2% previously - noting 'upside risk' to their full-year prediction of 7.2% growth. Meanwhile, Nomura raised its economic growth forecast for the year to 7.5% - in line with the government's target - from an initial forecast of 7.4%.

巴克莱(Barclays)的经济学家写道，他们把中国第二季度经济增长率预期由之前的7.2%调高至7.4%，并称他们的全年增长率预期7.2%有上调的可能性。此外野村把中国今年的经济增长率预期由最初预计的7.4%调高至7.5%，与政府的目标一致。

China's saw first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 7.4% year on year, down from 7.7% in the last quarter of 2013.

中国第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长了7.4%，增幅低于2013年第四季度的7.7%。

'The slight improvement in the activity data in May was mainly due to the mini-stimulus,' Lu Ting, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note to clients. 'We expect Beijing to roll out more targeted measures in the coming months.'

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺在研究报告中表示，5月份经济活动数据略微改善，主要受惠于微刺激政策。他还表示，他们预计中国政府未来几个月将推出更多有针对性的措施。

Barclays noted that the 'Li Keqiang Index' - a set of indicators the Chinese premier reportedly thinks give a truer picture of the economy than GDP - also suggests growth bottomed in March and is improving now. The index tracks new loans, electricity production and railway cargo.

巴克莱指出，“李克强指数”（据报道是中国总理李克强认为比GDP更能真实反映经济状况的一系列指标）也表明经济增长状况已经在3月份见底，现在正在改善。该指数追踪新增贷款、发电量和铁路货运量。

In addition to the rail spending and tax breaks, Beijing has warned local governments to spend money that has been allocated for approved projects - or risk losing it.

除了铁路投资和税收优惠外，北京方面还警告地方政府把拨给已批项目的经费花出去，否则可能收回预算。

Local governments 'must speed up spending on infrastructure construction projects and make spending materialize as soon as possible,' the Finance Ministry said last month.

财政部上个月称，地方政府必须加快基建工程及其资金进度。

Government spending was up 24.6% in May from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said. In April, fiscal spending rose 1.1% from a year ago, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on official data.

财政部称，5月份政府支出较上年同期增长了24.6%。据《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)根据官方数据计算，4月份财政支出同比增长了1.1%。

The central bank also has told some banks they could lend more of their deposits, letting city commercial banks and rural financial institutions hold less of their deposits in reserve. The move pointedly omitted the big five banks.

中国央行也告诉一些银行，它们可以把更多存款用于放贷――央行下调了城市商业银行和农村金融机构的存款准备金率。这一举措刻意地遗漏了五大银行。

On Monday, Industrial Bank and China Minsheng Bank - both among China's top 10 financial institutions - said they had been approved for a cut in their reserve requirement, signaling that more than just the smallest financial institutions have been included in the easing measure.

周一，均在中国前十大金融机构之列的兴业银行(Industrial Bank)和民生银行(China Minsheng Bank)双双表示，它们获准下调了存准率，这表明宽松措施覆盖的不只是最小的那些金融机构。

'They've done quite a lot so far,' said Tim Condon, economist at ING, referring to government measures to boost the economy.

荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家康登(Tim Condon)谈论政府提振经济的举措道，他们迄今为止已经做了许多。

He called it 'very encouraging' that Beijing seems to have averted a more pronounced slowdown in economic growth. But that can't be said for the property sector, which he described as in 'a pretty cold shower.'

他说北京似乎已经避免了经济增长出现更大幅度的放缓，称这非常鼓舞人心。但对于房地产业却不能这么说，他称房地产业洗了一个冷水浴。

Analysts suggest that more loosening measures may be aimed at this key sector, which is an important driver of growth and accounts for 16%-25% of GDP if related industries like steel and cement are included in the tally.

分析人士表示，政府可能针对这一重要行业采取更多的放松措施。房地产业是经济增长的重要推动力，如果将钢铁和水泥等相关产业都计算在内的话，房地产业占GDP的16%至25%。

China currently is seeing a correction in its housing market, which is plagued by excess supply in many cities outside Beijing and Shanghai, and tighter credit.

中国的楼市目前正在进行调整，并且面临信贷收紧。北京和上海以外的很多城市都存在供应过剩的问题。

Property sales were down 7.8% year over year in May, after falling 6.9% in April. That dragged fixed asset investment down on the month: It grew 17.2% over a year ago, its slowest gain since January 2002 and down from 17.3% in April.

5月份房屋销售面积较上年同期降7.8%，4月份降6.9%。房屋销售下滑拖累了当月固定资产投资：5月份固定资产投资较上年同期增长17.2%，为2002年1月以来的最低增幅，低于4月份的17.3%。

The central bank already has told commercial banks to make funds available for mortgage lending.

中国央行已经要求商业银行为抵押贷款投放提供资金。

Local governments also have started to relax some of the curbs on purchases of multiple homes imposed as part of an effort to keep prices from spiraling higher. The city of Shenyang in the northeast quietly told real-estate agencies that it will not enforce curbs on home purchases in certain parts of the city - though officials have been shy about formally confirming their stance.

地方政府也开始放宽对购置多套房的部分限制措施，限购措施是防止房价飙升的努力的一部分。沈阳市悄悄告诉房地产中介，将不会对该市部分地区的购房实施限制，不过官员们一直不愿正式证实他们的立场。

'Moderation in property investment will remain as the major threat to the country's recovery,' said Zhang Fan, economist at CIMB Securities. Otherwise, he said, the economy appears to be stabilizing.

联昌国际证券(CIMB)经济学家张帆表示，房地产投资的放缓将依然是中国复苏面临的主要威胁。他说，除此之外，经济似乎正在企稳。

'We expect more local governments will soften their restrictions for the property sector,' he said.

他说：“我们预计更多地方政府将放松对房地产业的限制。”