跨太平洋伙伴关系协定 TPP缔结在望

If all goes to plan in the coming months, Mike Froman, US trade representative, is set to land arguably the biggest prize in the country’s recent economic history.

如果未来几个月一切按计划进行，美国贸易代表迈克•弗罗曼(Mike Froman)即将收获该国近期经济史上可能最重要的奖品。

The 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, now nearing conclusion almost seven years after the US joined negotiations, is daunting in size and scope and dwarfs the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico that went into effect two decades ago.

有12国参与的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）在美国加入谈判近7年后正接近达成，其规模和范围都很惊人，让20年前生效的美国与加拿大和墨西哥签订的《北美自由贸易协议》(North American Free Trade Agreement)相形见绌。

Some 40 per cent of global output will be covered by the TPP, including two of the top three economies in the world (the US and Japan). It will significantly lower tariffs and other trade barriers around the Pacific Rim on everything from rice and steaks to cars and chemicals. It will contain enforceable standards on labour and the environment. It will set benchmarks by delineating rules for state-owned enterprises in the developing world and the digital economy. It will leave rivals in Beijing and Brussels salivating.

TPP将涵盖全球约40%的产出，包括全球最大三个经济体中的两个（美国和日本）。它将大大降低环太平洋地区很多商品的关税和其他贸易壁垒，从大米、牛排到汽车和化学品。它将纳入劳动力和环境方面的强制性标准。它将设定基准，为发展中国家的国有企业和数字经济制定规则。它将让中国和欧盟的竞争对手羡慕不已。

Yet the TPP is being derided by many inside President Barack Obama’s Democratic party and by the unions it has relied on for its base. At a time when Mr Obama is putting a new “middle-class economics” and the fight against inequality at the centre of his agenda, his push for new trade agreements causes many on his side of politics to squirm.

然而，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)所在民主党内部的很多人，以及民主党所仰仗的工会，正嘲笑该协定。在奥巴马将新的“中产阶级经济学”以及反对不平等列为其执政议程核心之际，他对于新的贸易协定的推动，让他所在政治阵营的很多人不安。

Such are the politics of trade in the US.

这就是美国的贸易政治。

The consensus among many Democrats with regard to trade agreements and globalisation is that they have not been kind to the middle class, having contributed to high-paying manufacturing jobs being shipped offshore and wages stagnating.

在贸易协定和全球化问题上，很多民主党人的共识是，这些对中产阶层不利，导致高薪制造业工作被外包到海外，并使工资不再增长。

Economists such as Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman have raised doubts about TPP. Even as she has made friendly noises on trade, Nancy Pelosi, the powerful Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, has been blunt about the administration’s challenge. “The burden is on [the White House] to demonstrate that this is good for American pay cheques,” she said last week.

约瑟夫•斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)和保罗•克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)等经济学家一直对TPP提出质疑。美国众议院颇有影响力的民主党领袖南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)在贸易问题上的态度比较友好，但她还是坦率地谈到了奥巴马政府所面临的挑战。她上周表示：“（白宫的）任务是证明，这对于美国人的薪资有利。”

But, sitting before the brick hearth in his office, a spitting distance from the White House, Mr Froman is resolute.

然而，在距离白宫仅一步之遥的地方，坐在办公室砖砌壁炉前的弗罗曼却态度坚决。

“We’re doing this to protect American jobs and American workers,” he tells the Financial Times in an interview.

他在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“我们这么做是为了保护美国的就业和劳动者。”

The TPP is, he argues, a way to open up more markets for US goods and services in fast-growing Asia and to create high-paying jobs at home. It is also a way to level the playing field for American workers by including stronger labour and environmental standards that will be enforceable via trade sanctions. And, with Canada and Mexico included, to deliver on President Obama’s long-ago campaign promise to renegotiate Nafta, something the progressive wing of the Democratic party has long sought.

他认为，TPP能够在增长迅速的亚洲为更多美国商品和服务打开市场，并在国内创造高薪岗位。它还可以纳入能够通过贸易制裁强制执行的更严格的劳动力和环境标准，为美国劳动者创造公平竞争环境。加拿大和墨西哥的加入，将兑现奥巴马总统很久以前提出的就《北美自由贸易协议》重新谈判的竞选承诺，这是民主党进步派长期以来一直寻求的。

“There are a lot of people who raise very legitimate concerns about the impact of globalisation on patterns of production, on jobs, on wages. But I think it’s also important not to conflate globalisation with trade agreements,” Mr Froman says.

弗罗曼表示：“很多人就全球化对生产、就业和薪资模式的影响提出了非常合理的担忧。但我认为，同样重要的是，不要把全球化与贸易协议混为一谈。”

“Globalisation is a force. It exists. The question is whether we can use trade agreements to shape it, or whether we want to just sit and be shaped by it.”

“全球化是一种力量。它是存在的。问题是我们能否利用贸易协议来影响全球化，还是说我们甘愿坐等全球化来影响我们。”

The US, he says, needs to be at the forefront of setting global rules of commerce. Countries like China are engaged in their own rival bids to create regional blocs that exclude the US and do not include the sort of rules the US is pursuing on labour, intellectual property or the internet. Ceding ground to such rivals “has got to be worse for American workers and the American middle class than even the status quo”.

他表示，美国需要走在制定全球商业规则的前列。中国等国正试图创建竞争性的区域集团，这些集团排斥美国，也排斥美国在劳动力、知识产权或互联网领域所力推的那些规则。“对美国劳动者和美国中产阶级而言”，向这些竞争对手让步“比保持现状更糟糕”。

Negotiators from the US, Japan and the 10 other countries in the TPP are involved in almost constant discussions. Obstacles clearly remain and negotiations are tough. But a TPP deal is “a small number of months” away, Mr Froman forecast during a Senate hearing last week.

来自美国、日本和其他10个TPP国家的谈判代表正在进行近乎不间断的磋商。障碍显然存在，同时谈判相当艰难。但弗罗曼在上周参议院的一次听证会期间预测，达成TPP只有“几个月”之遥。

The US has told its partners within the TPP that it wants to complete negotiations before the summer so that an agreement can be put to Congress by the end of 2015 and before the 2016 presidential campaign heats up.

美国已告诉其TPP伙伴国，美国希望在今年夏季之前完成谈判，这样协定就可以在2015年底之前递交国会，赶在2016年总统大选升温之前。

Amid pitched partisan battles on other issues, importantly the new Republican leadership in Congress says it wants to give Mr Obama the “fast-track” authority he needs to close the TPP and, eventually, a parallel negotiation with the EU.

尽管两党正在就其他问题展开激战，但重要的是，国会新任共和党领导层表示，希望赋予奥巴马缔结TPP、以及最终与欧盟完成类似谈判所需的“快车道”授权。

Business groups, Republicans and the administration all believe a healthy majority in Congress will back a vote on what is formally called Trade Promotion Authority. Asked whether he expects such a vote to succeed, Mr Froman answers: “Yes”.

商业组织、共和党人以及奥巴马政府都认为，国会的绝大多数议员都将支持就这项正式名称为“贸易促进授权”(Trade Promotion Authority)的措施投票。在被问及他是否预测投票会成功时，弗罗曼的回答是肯定的。

The consensus in the US is that Congress is likely to vote on fast-track authority within two-three months and that a TPP deal will be closed shortly thereafter. Mr Froman’s big moment — the US’s big trade moment — may well be not very far away.

美国的共识是，国会可能会在两三个月内就“快车道”授权进行投票，TPP将在之后不久达成。弗罗曼的重大时刻——也是美国贸易的重大时刻——很可能不久就要到来了。