化石燃料逐渐让位于可再生能源

These are strange days in the energy business. Startling headlines are emerging from the sector that would have seemed impossible just a few years ago.

如今是能源行业的奇特岁月。该行业正在涌现一些令人吃惊的头条新闻，这些新闻在短短几年前似乎是不可能的事情。

The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority said in May it had received bids to develop solar power projects that would deliver electricity costing less than three cents per kilowatt hour. This established a new worldwide low for the contracted cost of delivering solar power to the grid — and is priced well below the benchmark of what the emirate and other countries typically pay for electricity from coal-fired stations.

5月，迪拜水电局(Dubai Electricity and Water Authority)表示，其已收到几份开发太阳能发电项目的计划，完工后的电力批发价格将低于每千瓦时3美分。这创下了全球向电网输送太阳能电力的合同价新低，且远远低于这个酋长国和其他国家通常向燃煤电厂购买电力的基准价格。

In the UK, renowned for its miserable overcast weather, solar panels contributed more power to the grid than coal plants for the month of May.

在以悲催的阴天闻名的英国，今年5月太阳能电池板向电网输送的电力高于燃煤电厂。

In energy-hungry Los Angeles, the electricity company AES is installing the world’s largest battery, with capacity to power hundreds of thousands of homes at times of high demand, replacing gas-fired plants which are often used at short notice to increase supply to the grid.

在能源需求极大的洛杉矶，美国爱依斯电力(AES)正在安装世界上最大的电池，其可在需求高峰为数十万家庭供电，取代那些随时待命对电网增加供电的燃气电厂。

Trina Solar, the Chinese company that is the world’s largest solar panel manufacturer, said it had started selling in 20 new markets last year, from Poland to Mauritius and Nepal to Uruguay.

世界上最大太阳能电池板生产企业、中国的天合光能(Trina Solar)表示，去年开始向20个新市场销售产品，从波兰到毛里求斯，从尼泊尔到乌拉圭。

It is not only renewable energy that is throwing out such remarkable news. Production costs in the US shale oilfields have been cut by up to 40 per cent in the past two years, according to Wood Mackenzie, the research company. Cargoes of liquefied natural gas have been heading from the US to the Gulf, making the surplus in North America available to the markets of Dubai and Kuwait even though they sit within the world’s largest oil and gas producing region.

抛出这等非凡新闻的并非只有可再生能源。咨询公司Wood Mackenzie表示，过去两年里，美国页岩油田的生产成本已削减40%之多。近期，装载液化天然气的货船从美国驶往海湾，将北美的过剩产量供应给迪拜和科威特市场，尽管这两者地处世界最大油气产区之内。

The implication of those stories is to suggest there are momentous changes under way in the global energy system, undermining received wisdom in the sector. It is clear that the world is shifting toward renewables and — as a proportion of total consumption — away from oil, gas and coal.

这些故事的意义在于暗示，全球能源体系正在发生翻天覆地的变化，行业内的公认智慧正受到挑战。显然，世界正转向可再生能源，同时——从占消费总量的比例看——减轻对石油、天然气和煤炭的依赖。

Within the markets for fossil fuels, some sources such as gas are becoming favoured over others such as coal. The question for policymakers and industry experts is how far and how fast these changes can go.

在化石燃料市场内部，有些燃料（比如天然气）正变得比其他燃料（比如煤炭）更受欢迎。政策制定者和行业专家心里的疑问在于，这些变化可能走得多远？发生速度有多快？

Down the decades, an attitude of cynicism in the face of the latest trends has generally been the smart position to take on energy. Assets such as oilfields and power plants are big investments that have operational lives lasting for many decades, and so the fuel mix and fleet of power-generating assets turns over slowly.

几十年来，对能源领域的最新趋势抱怀疑态度总体上是明智的。油田和电厂等资产是大笔投资，其运行寿命可以持续好几十年，所以燃料结构和发电资产的改变是缓慢的。

Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP, published a fascinating chart in June showing the rate of adoption of existing energy sources and technologies, which makes clear that it is often a lengthy process. For example, in 1899 gas provided just 1 per cent of the world’s primary energy needs. Five decades later, that figure had grown to 8 per cent.

6月，BP首席经济学家斯宾塞•戴尔(Spencer Dale)发表了一张很有意思的图表，显示现有能源和技术的普及速度，清楚表明这往往是一个漫长的过程。例如，在1899年，天然气仅仅满足了1%的世界一次能源需求。50年后，这个比例上升至8%。

While renewable energy has been growing fast, it is coming from a very low base. “Modern renewables” — mostly biofuels, wind and solar, but not hydro or traditional biomass — provided just 2.5 per cent of the world’s primary energy last year, according to BP.

尽管可再生能源近年增长迅速，但其基数非常低。BP数据显示，去年，“现代可再生能源”——主要是生物燃料、风能和太阳能，但不包括水力或传统的生物质——仅仅满足了2.5%的世界一次能源需求。

That said, there are examples from history of when energy systems have changed rapidly after reaching tipping points. Oil consumption had been growing steadily through the late 19th and early 20th centuries, but really took off during and after the first world war, as warships switched from coal to fuel oil and armies became mechanised with petrol- and diesel-engine vehicles.

话虽如此，历史上也不乏能源体系在达到拐点后发生迅速变化的例子。19世纪末至20世纪初，石油消费量一直稳步增长，但在一战期间和之后才真正起飞，因为战舰从煤炭转向燃油，而陆军借助汽油和柴油发动机车辆实现了机械化。

Nuclear power had a similar surge between the Arab oil embargo against the US and other countries in 1973 and the Chernobyl accident of 1986.

1973年阿拉伯世界对美国和其他国家实施石油禁运，以及1986年切尔诺贝利核电站事故发生后，核电出现了相似的飞跃。

Government policies to address the threat of climate change are today’s equivalent.

如今，政府为应对气候变化威胁而出台的政策，成了推动能源体系发生变化的因素。

The commitments to take action to combat climate change made by 195 countries at the Paris talks at the end of last year are a sign that, however contentious the issue may be politically in the US, on a global scale the pressure is unlikely to dissipate any time soon.

在去年底的巴黎气候谈判中，195个国家做出了采取措施应对气候变化的承诺。这表明，无论这个问题在美国可能引起多么大的政治争议，全球范围的压力不太可能很快消失。

This special report includes examples of innovative technologies that could bring further change to parts of the energy industry. Small modular nuclear reactors, for example, intended to avoid the staggering cost of their larger rivals, are being proposed for use in the US or the UK by 2025.

这个特别报道系列介绍了几种创新技术，它们有望给能源行业部分领域带来进一步变化。例如，有人提议到2025年就可在美国或英国投入运行的小型模组化核反应堆，它们有助于避免大型反应堆的巨大成本。

At the same time, fossil fuel companies are making strides in their efforts to remain competitive. This is not easy. Not only have oil and gas prices plunged over the past two years, but in the long term weaker demand and more abundant supply are expected. Valuations of companies in this sector have been badly dented.

与此同时，化石燃料公司在维持自身竞争力方面也在取得进步。这并非易事。不仅石油和天然气价格在过去两年里大跌，而且从长远看，需求预计会变弱，而供应会更加充足。该行业公司的估值已受到严重挤压。

Some new energy technologies, meanwhile, are not making much progress, such as the development of power plants that capture and store the carbon dioxide they produce. It is commonly assumed among policymakers that carbon capture has become essential if humankind is to enjoy the benefits of fossil fuels while avoiding their polluting effects.

另一方面，有些新能源技术并未取得太大进展，比如能够捕捉并存储自己所排放二氧化碳的发电厂。政策制定者们普遍认为，如果人类打算继续享受化石燃料的好处、同时避免其污染效果的话，碳捕捉已变得必不可少。

It is clear, too, that the growth of renewables and other low-carbon energy sources will not follow a straight line. Investment in “clean” energy has been faltering this year after hitting a record in 2015, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. For the first half of 2016, it is down 23 per cent from the equivalent period last year.

另外，可再生能源和其他低碳能源的发展轨迹显然将不会是一条直线。彭博新能源财经(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)数据显示，自2015年创下最高纪录以来，对“清洁”能源的投资今年已失去势头。2016年上半年，清洁能源投资同比下降23%。

Even so, the elements are being put in place for what could be a quite sudden and far-reaching energy transition, which could be triggered by an unexpected and sustained surge in oil prices. If China or India were to make large-scale policy commitments to electric vehicles, they would have a dramatic impact on the outlook for oil demand.

即便如此，一场相当突然且影响深远的能源转型的各项元素正在陆续到位，其触发因素可能是出乎意料的油价持续大涨。如果中国或印度对电动汽车做出大规模政策承诺，那将对石油需求前景产生戏剧性冲击。

In Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, a character says he went bankrupt “two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” There is a chance that a profound shift in our energy system could sneak up on us in the same way.

在欧内斯特•海明威(Ernest Hemingway)的《旭日东升》(The Sun Also Rises)中，有个人物说，他是以两种方式破产的，“先是逐渐，接着突然。”在我们的能源体系中，一场深刻的转型有可能以同样方式悄悄向我们接近。