共和党的选择绝境 The unpalatable choices facing the Republicans

Desperate times for the Republicans call for desperate measures. In any other situation, it is impossible to imagine figures such as Mitt Romney or Jeb Bush endorsing Ted Cruz as the party’s nominee. Yet they feel Donald Trump’s scorched earth advance leaves them no choice. They calculate that Mr Cruz is the only candidate left with a chance of stopping Mr Trump from winning a majority of delegates before the final primary in June.

共和党正处于非常时期，因此需要采取非常措施。本来，在其他任何情况下，都无法想象米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)或杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)之类的人物会支持特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)作为本党总统候选人。可是现在，他们觉得唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)势如破竹的攻势已让他们别无选择。他们盘算着，有机会阻止特朗普在6月预选结束之前赢得多数代表支持的候选人，只剩下克鲁兹了。

With either as nominee, Republican leaders have all but written off hope of recapturing the White House. Going with Mr Cruz would at least enable them to keep their party intact, albeit at the risk of a third-party candidacy by an enraged Mr Trump. Lindsey Graham, the senator from South Carolina, likened it to a choice between being shot or poisoned. He too has swallowed the hemlock. Not one of Mr Cruz’s new allies believes he should be president, or that he would stand much chance of winning. They are playing a different game. For their party’s future, they would rather lose with Mr Cruz than with Mr Trump.

无论特朗普还是克鲁兹成为总统候选人，共和党都基本不可能再夺回白宫。支持克鲁兹至少能保持共和党的完整，只不过被激怒的特朗普还可能以第三方候选人身份参选。南卡罗来纳州的参议员林塞•格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)把这比作在被枪杀与被毒死之间做选择。他自己也已服下了毒药。在克鲁兹的新支持者中，没有人认为他应该当总统，也没有人认为他胜选的可能性很大。他们现在玩的是一种不同的游戏。为了共和党的未来，他们就是输也宁愿和克鲁兹一起，而不愿与特朗普在一起。

There is not much chance that the last minute ploy will work. With 29 states having already voted, Mr Trump has gathered about 60 per cent of the delegates he needs to push him over the top — the magic number is 1,237. If Mr Trump crossed that threshold, there would be no stopping him.

这种“临时抱佛脚”的策略不太可能奏效。目前已有29个州完成初选，特朗普已拿到赢得提名所需选举人票数的约60%。那个可以将他推向巅峰的神奇数字是1237，如果特朗普跨过了这个门槛，就没有什么能阻止他了。

If he fell shy, however, it would open the door to selecting another candidate at the Republican convention in July. Many delegates are only “bound” to vote for their candidate on the first ballot. The theory is that enough of Mr Trump’s delegates could be induced, or cajoled, to switching horses on the second or third round. It is a perversely negative strategy. Polls say that John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, is the only one of the three remaining Republicans who could defeat Hillary Clinton. His pragmatic record, and Midwestern blue collar roots, have broad appeal. Yet the logic behind the Cruz endorsements would require Mr Kasich to drop out of the race. His presence continues to split the anti-Trump vote.

如果他拿不到这么多选举人票，7月份共和党全国代表大会就有机会选出另一个候选人。很多代表只是“不得不”在第一轮投票中支持他们的候选人。理论上讲，不管是劝还是哄，应该能够引导足够多的支持特朗普的代表，在第二轮或第三轮投票中转向支持其他候选人。这是异常消极的策略。民调显示，在共和党仅存的三名总统竞选者中，俄亥俄州州长约翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)是唯一有可能战胜希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的人。他出身于中西部的蓝领阶层的，作风务实，拥有广泛的号召力。但按照一众共和党人支持克鲁兹的逻辑，卡西奇就得退出竞选。他的存在进一步分散了反特朗普的选票。

It is also a dangerous tactic. Mr Cruz would be the most extreme nominee since Barry Goldwater in 1964 — and in many respects more so. Among other policies, he would return to the gold standard, end the US Federal Reserve’s independence and abolish the Internal Revenue Service. On all three he is to the right of Mr Trump.

这也是一个危险的策略。克鲁兹如获提名，将是1964年参选的巴里•戈德华特(Barry Goldwater)以来最极端的候选人，而且在很多方面比戈德华特更极端。按照他主张的政策，他将回归金本位，结束美联储(Fed)的独立地位，并撤销美国国税局(IRS)。就这三方面来说，他比特朗普还要右倾。

In spite of his own half-Cuban background and Canadian birth, he too would build a wall with Mexico and expel the estimated 11m illegal Hispanic immigrants from the US. He would also match Mr Trump’s draconian stance on Muslims. Following this week’s terrorist attacks in Brussels, Mr Cruz said he would empower US law enforcement to “patrol and secure Muslim neighbourhoods before they become radicalised”.

尽管拥有部分古巴血统并在加拿大出生，克鲁兹也将在美国和墨西哥之间建一堵墙，并把约1100万非法拉美裔移民驱逐出境。他在对穆斯林的严厉态度上也跟特朗普不相上下。本周布鲁塞尔发生恐怖袭击之后，克鲁兹表示，他将授权美国执法机构“在穆斯林社区巡逻和维持治安，防止他们变成激进分子”。

It is hard to think of a step more likely to inflame sentiment or to think of a nominee more likely to discredit the Republican brand than Mr Cruz. Except for Mr Trump, that is. Projections suggest Mr Trump will win a majority or large plurality of delegates. Were he to be denied the crown, the outcome could be combustible. Mr Trump has “predicted” riots were that to happen.

想不出还有什么政策比这更能激起民愤，还有什么样的候选人比克鲁兹更可能败坏共和党的名声——也就只有特朗普了。据预测，特朗普将赢得多数或相对多数的选举人票。如果不让他获得提名，后果可能很麻烦。特朗普曾“预言”那将引发骚乱。

Mr Trump’s nomination would damage the Republican party and the US. The same applies to Mr Cruz. Republican elders bear heavy responsibility for what is happening. There are no good options left. Rather than pick between two unpalatable losers, they should take another look at the merits of Mr Kasich. It is far better to go down for a cause in which you at least believe.

特朗普获得提名对共和党和美国都有害。克鲁兹也是如此。共和党大佬们对当前局面负有重大责任。没有什么好的选择了。与其在两个都令人难以接受的失败者中选一个，不如再考虑一下卡西奇的优点。带着一种你至少相信的主张参加竞选而失败，无疑要好得多。