英美民主政体遭遇危机 濒临崩溃
Two of the great political parties in the west — the Republicans in the US and Labour in the UK — are in a state of near collapse. That, in turn, threatens the health of democracy on both sides of the Atlantic.
西方两家伟大政党——美国的共和党和英国的工党——濒临崩溃，这相应威胁到大西洋两岸民主体制的健康。
The crises in the Republican and Labour parties are strikingly similar. In both cases, a leader has emerged from the fringes of politics and taken the party in a different and radical direction. The emergence of Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn threaten to destroy the electoral prospects of their two parties — and will sow division and ideological confusion long into the future.
共和党和工党的危机惊人地相似。在两个例子里，都有一名领导人崛起于政治生态的边缘，将各自党派带向了新的激进方向。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)的崛起可能破坏两党的选举前景，将在未来很长时间内造成分歧和意识形态的混乱。
Even if Mr Trump and Mr Corbyn never make it into the White House or 10 Downing Street, their ascendancy is also damaging to the wider political system. Well-functioning democracies need a credible opposition to hold the government to account. But in the UK and the US, that basic function is no longer being properly performed.
即便特朗普和科尔宾永远不会问鼎白宫或唐宁街10号，他们的崛起也在破坏更广泛的政治体制。运转正常的民主政体需要可靠的反对党来问责政府。但在英国和美国，这种基本功能已不再正常发挥作用。
In Britain, the challenge of negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU cries out for an alert and responsible opposition. The government, led by Theresa May, has managed to acquire a reputation for competence, partly because Labour is such a shambles. Yet, although two months have elapsed since Britain voted to leave the EU, there is very little sign that the May government has any idea of how to handle the issue. Simply repeating “Brexit means Brexit” is no substitute for a strategy.
在英国，谈判英国退欧事宜是一个巨大的挑战，亟需一个警觉而负责任的反对党。特里萨•梅(Theresa May)领导的政府成功获得能干的名声，一定程度上是因为工党非常烂。然而，尽管英国退欧公投已经过去了两个月时间，但几乎没有迹象显示梅政府知道如何操作这件事。只是重复“退欧就是退欧”代替不了战略。
A competent opposition would, by now, be all over the May government. It would highlight the infighting among the ministers who are charged with negotiating Brexit. And it would hammer the prime minister for failing to articulate her priorities on crucial issues, such as the trade-offs between immigration and access to the EU’s internal market.
一个称职的反对党现在肯定早已把梅政府批得体无完肤了。它会呼吁大家关注负责谈判英国退欧事宜的部长们的内讧。它会抨击梅未能阐明她在一些关键问题上的优先度排序，比如移民与进入欧盟内部市场这两件事之间的权衡。
But Mr Corbyn’s Labour party has failed to do any of this. This may be because Mr Corbyn is actually a secret supporter of Brexit. Or it may simply be incompetence. Either way, the Labour party is failing in its duty.
但上述这些事情科尔宾的工党全都没有做到。这可能是因为科尔宾私底下实际上是支持英国退欧的。抑或工党可能就是没有能力。无论哪一种情况，英国工党都没有尽到自己的职责。
The situation in the US is more dire. Mr Trump’s idea of opposition is to seize upon any crackpot conspiracy theory circulating on the internet or on talk radio. The Trump campaign is so obsessed with painting Hillary Clinton and the Democrats as “crooked” that it has failed to highlight real problems that have festered under the Obama administration. These include the unfolding disaster in Syria and the worry that the US economy is addicted to ultra-loose monetary policies. In a well-functioning democracy these issues would be at the centre of the presidential election. As it is, they have been lost in an endless series of controversies generated by the Trump campaign.
美国的情况更为糟糕。在特朗普的观念里，反对党就是要利用互联网或谈话类节目上流传的任何异想天开的阴谋论。特朗普的竞选活动一门心思描绘希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和民主党人“不诚实的”形象，以致于它未能揭示出奥巴马政府治下一些不断恶化的真正问题。这些问题包括叙利亚正在发生的灾难以及对美国经济沉溺于超级宽松货币政策的担忧。在一个正常运转的民主体制中，这些问题将处于总统大选的核心位置。但实际上，特朗普竞选活动制造的没完没了的争议已经将这些问题淹没了。
The similarities between the Corbyn and Trump phenomena are disguised by the almost comic differences between the two politicians. Mr Corbyn primly insists that he “doesn’t do” personal abuse; Mr Trump does almost nothing else. The Labour leader is most at home in his allotment garden; Mr Trump’s natural environment is a penthouse suite. Mr Corbyn is on the far-left. Mr Trump is on the far-right. Mr Corbyn is an internationalist; Mr Trump is a nationalist.
科尔宾和特朗普现象的相似之处被两位政客近乎滑稽的差异掩盖了。科尔宾一本正经地坚称，他“不会进行”人身攻击，特朗普则除了人身攻击以外几乎不做其他事。科尔宾待在自己的公共花园里最自在；而特朗普最自在的地方是顶层套房。科尔宾极左，特朗普极右；科尔宾是国际主义者，特朗普是民族主义者。
But, despite these differences, the two leaders have quite a lot in common. Both are “anti-system” politicians. Both have seized control of their parties by mobilising new groups of activists and voters. The Trump and Corbyn activists despise their parties’ old-guards and often have an undercurrent of violence in their rhetoric.
但是尽管存在上述差异，两位领导人却有诸多共同之处。两人都是“反体制”的政客。两人都利用新的活动人士和选民群体掌控了本党。特朗普和科尔宾活动人士都鄙视各自党内的保守派，言辞中经常隐含暴力。
Mr Corbyn and Mr Trump are also noted for their sympathy towards Vladimir Putin’s Russia — and their scepticism about Nato. The fringes of the Corbyn and the Trump movements also seem to be infected by anti-semitism, perhaps reflecting the traditional suspicion of the far left and the far right that “the system” is controlled by Jews.
还有一点值得注意的是，科尔宾和特朗普都同情弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)治下的俄罗斯、怀疑北约(Nato)。科尔宾和特朗普运动的极端人士也似乎受到反犹太主义的影响，这或许反映出极左和极右派别的传统疑虑，即“体制”被犹太人控制。
The similarities between the two movements suggest that traditional right-left divisions may no longer be the best way of understanding Anglo-American politics. Instead, the new politics is turning into a confrontation between establishment and anti-system parties. The same pattern can be observed in much of western Europe, with the rise of anti-system parties such as Italy’s Five-Star movement, France’s National Front, Spain’s Podemos and the Alternative for Germany. Some of these are described as far right and some as far left. The characteristic they almost all share is a claim that the system is “rigged” and that ordinary people are being trampled by elites. In foreign policy, they tend to be pro-Russian.
两种运动的相似之处表明，传统的左右翼分歧可能不再是理解英美政治的最佳方式。相反，新的政治生态正转变为建制派与反体制派之间的对峙。随着意大利“五星运动”(Five Star Movement)、法国国民阵线(National Front)、西班牙社会民主力量党(Podemos)以及德国的新选择党(Alternative)等反体制政党的崛起，同样的模式在许多西欧国家都可以看到。一些政党被描述为极右翼政党，还有一些被称为极左翼政党。他们几乎全都宣称政治体制“受到操纵”，普通人受到精英人士的践踏。在外交政策方面，他们往往是亲俄罗斯的。
Given the disasters of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, combined with a long stagnation in living standards, it is not surprising that voters in the US and Europe are seeking more radical alternatives. But the standard-bearers of the new radicalism in the US and the UK are leaders who are sadly bereft of constructive ideas, unless you regard protectionism and the destruction of Nato as the keys to the future.
鉴于伊拉克战争和金融危机造成的灾难，再加上生活水准长期停滞不前，美国和欧洲的选民寻求更激进的选择不足为奇。但令人遗憾的是，美英的新激进主义旗手都是缺乏建设性想法的领导人——除非你认为保护主义和摧毁北约是通往未来的钥匙。
Instead of introducing creative new ideas, Messrs Corbyn and Trump have merely succeeded in recycling some bad old ones: state control of the economy in the case of Mr Corbyn; and America-first isolationism in the case of Mr Trump. These two individuals may never gain real power. But their rise to prominence is a sign of a real sickness in British and American democracy.
科尔宾和特朗普先生没有推出新的创造性想法，而只是捡起了一些老掉牙的糟糕点子：科尔宾捡起的是国家控制经济，特朗普捡起的是美国优先的孤立主义。这两人可能永远也不会真正掌权。但他们的崛起表明英美民主体制真的出现了问题。
