后苏联时代中亚地区最大规模政坛人事变动

Uzbekistan named its new president and Kazakhstan and Armenia replaced their prime ministers yesterday in the biggest political shake-up in post-Soviet central Asia in years.

昨天，乌兹别克斯坦任命了新总统，哈萨克斯坦和亚美尼亚总理换人，这是后苏联时代中亚地区多年以来最大规模的政坛人事变动。

A joint session of the upper and lower houses of Uzbekistan’s parliament named Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has been the country’s prime minister since 2003, as acting president following the death last week of Islam Karimov, who had ruled central Asia’s most populous nation since before its independence from the Soviet Union.

乌兹别克斯坦最高会议立法院和参议院联席会议决定，任命自2003年以来担任总理的沙夫卡特•米尔济约耶夫（Shavkat Mirziyoyev，上图）为代总统。在乌兹别克斯坦从苏联独立出来以前就开始担任总统的伊斯兰•卡里莫夫(Islam Karimov)已于上周去世。乌兹别克斯坦是中亚人口最多的国家。

Separately, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who also has ruled neighbouring Kazakhstan since Soviet times, initiated the first big reshuffle of his government in more than two years by dismissing prime minister removing Karim Massimov as prime minister and appointing him head of the security services.

在邻国哈萨克斯坦，也是从苏联时期就开始掌权的努尔苏丹•纳扎尔巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)启动了两年多来首次政府大改组，解除了卡里姆•马西莫夫(Karim Massimov)总理职务，任命他为国家安全委员会主席。

And in Armenia, prime minister Hovik Abrahamyan resigned in the face of widespread popular dissatisfaction with the government.

而在亚美尼亚，面对民众对政府的普遍不满，总理奥维克•阿布拉米扬(Hovik Abrahamyan)主动辞职。

This week we have seen a series of events that demonstrate that the regional politics is very much in flux, said Luca Anceschi, a lecturer in central Asian studies at the University of Glasgow.

本周我们见证了一系列事件，它们表明本地区政治局势极为动荡不定，格拉斯哥大学(University of Glasgow)中亚研究讲师卢卡•安切斯基(Luca Anceschi)表示。

The leadership changes come as the region suffers its worst economic downturn in two decades.

此轮领导层变动正值该地区遭遇20年以来最严重的经济萧条。

The International Monetary Fund anticipates growth in the region will fall to just 1.2 per cent this year after averaging 8.3 per cent between 2000 and 2014, on the back of lower commodity prices and recession in Russia.

据国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测，受大宗商品价格低迷和俄罗斯经济衰退影响，今年该地区经济增长率将下滑至1.2%。在2000年至2014年期间，该地区经济年均增长8.3%。

In Uzbekistan, the choice of Mr Mirziyoyev as acting president ahead of elections to be held later this year will be interpreted as a clear sign that he has been selected by the country’s elites as Karimov’s successor.

在乌兹别克斯坦，选择由米尔济约耶夫在今年晚些时候举行大选前代行总统职务，将被视作他被该国统治精英选为卡里莫夫继任者的明确信号。

Under Uzbekistan’s constitution, in case if the president dies or becomes incapacitated, the presidency should pass to the chairman of the senate.

根据乌兹别克斯坦宪法，如果总统死亡或丧失履行职务能力，总统职务应由参议院主席代理。

But Nigmatulla Yuldashev, the little-known figure who holds that role, nominated Mr Mirziyoyev to take over in view of his many years of experience in government and the respect in which he is held by the population, according to a statement from the Uzbek senate said.

但是，根据乌兹别克斯坦参议院的声明，名气不大的参议院主席尼格马图拉•尤尔达舍夫(Nigmatulla Yuldashev)提议，鉴于米尔济约耶夫在政府有多年工作经验以及饱受国民爱戴，由其代理总统职务。

Mr Mirziyoyev was widely considered the favourite to become the next Uzbek president and was master of ceremonies at Karimov’s funeral last Saturday.

米尔济约耶夫被普遍认为是人气最高的下任总统人选，他上周六主持了卡里莫夫的葬礼。

This week, he has been the most visible member of the country’s elite, meeting Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, as well as a senior Boeing executive.

本周他成为该国出镜率最高的高层政治人物：与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)会面，并接见了波音(Boeing)的一名高管。

The reshuffle of the Kazakh government comes as the country central Asia’s largest economy, and a significant oil producer, is also preparing for its first ever transition of power.

在哈萨克斯坦政府改组之际，这个中亚最大经济体及重要石油生产国也正准备迎接史上首次权力交替。

Mr Nazarbayev, 76, has announced no plans for a successor, but analysts believe the country’s elites are already manoeuvring for position.

现年76岁的纳扎尔巴耶夫宣布尚无关于继任者人选的计划，但是分析人士认为该国统治精英已经在钩心斗角地争权。

Livia Paggi, a specialist on the region at risk consultancy GPW, said the main beneficiary of Mr Massimov’s dismissal appeared to be Dariga Nazarbayeva, the president’s daughter and deputy prime minister.

风险咨询机构GPW的中亚地区专家利维娅•帕吉(Livia Paggi)称，马西莫夫卸任总理的主要受益人似乎是总统之女、副总理达丽加•纳扎尔巴耶夫(Dariga Nazarbayeva)。

The removal of Massimov seems to suggest that Dariga is still in the game as a potential successor. she said.

她表示：马西莫夫被免似乎表明，达丽加仍然是潜在的继任者人选。

Mr Massimov’s removal comes after the Kazakh government was rattled by a rare wave of protest earlier this year.

今年早些时候哈萨克斯坦爆发罕见的抗议浪潮，引起政府当局不安。

The government has also warned of a growing terrorist threat following a shootout between gunmen and police in the western city of Aktobe.

此外，在西部城市阿克托别(Aktobe)爆发枪手与警方的枪战之后，政府警告恐怖主义威胁上升。

The appointment of Mr Massimov, who is seen as a competent manager, to head the Kazakh security services might also be an attempt to insure against unrest during a future presidential transition, analysts said.

分析人士称，任命能干的马西莫夫领导国家安全委员会，可能也是为了防止未来总统换届期间发生动乱。

The reshuffle of the government should be seen not only in terms of today’s politics but also in terms of tomorrow’s power transfer, Mr Anceschi said. Whatever you think of the Uzbek transition, it was orderly.

对于政府改组，不仅要从时下的政治局势来看待，还要从日后权力交接的角度来解读，安切斯基称，不管你怎么看待乌兹别克斯坦的权力过渡，它都是有序进行的。

I think that this sense of order and cohesion within the elite might have appealed to someone at the top of Kazakhstani politics.

我认为，这种精英阶层内部有序而团结的感觉或许对哈萨克斯坦政界最高层的某个人有吸引力。

In Armenia, Mr Abrahamyan’s resignation was widely anticipated ahead of parliamentary elections next year.

在亚美尼亚，人们此前就普遍预计阿布拉米扬会在明年议会选举前辞职。

There were mass protests in the capital Yerevan this summer amid an economic slowdown and tensions over the government’s handling of a flare-up in fighting with Azerbaijan over the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh earlier this year.

今年夏天，首都埃里温(Yerevan)爆发了大规模民众抗议，原因一方面是经济放缓，另一方面是今年早些时候亚美尼亚与阿塞拜疆因纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫地区（Nagorno-Karabakh，简称纳卡地区）爆发冲突，亚美尼亚当局对事件的处理引发局势紧张。纳卡地区是亚美尼亚在阿塞拜疆境内一块多山的飞地。