汽车行业: 今年首季中国汽车销量快速增长
Strong economic growth and consumer confidence boosted first-quarter car sales in China as the mainland shook off last year’s weakness to resume strong double-digit growth.
Light vehicle sales in the world’s largest vehicle market rose 17 per cent to 4.42m in the first three months of the year. In March alone, sales of cars, sport utility and other passenger vehicles climbed to almost 2m, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said yesterday.
在2013年头3个月，全球最大汽车市场中国的乘用车销量达到442万辆，较上年同期增长17%。中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)昨日表示，仅3月份当月，轿车、运动型多功能车(SUV)以及其他乘用车型的销量就攀升至约200万辆。“China’s auto industry delivered solid double-digit growth, driven by continued expansion of its population of urban middle-class buyers,” said Bill Russo of Synergistics auto consultancy in Beijing and the former head of Chrysler in China.
原克莱斯勒(Chrysler)中国区主管、北京Synergistics汽车咨询公司总裁罗威(Bill Russo)说：“中国的汽车工业实现了两位数的坚实增长，主要受城市中产阶级购车群体持续扩大推动。”
But he warned against over-optimistic assumptions over market growth, which has led to excess capacity, especially among state-owned domestic carmakers.
但他警告称，不应对市场增长前景抱有过于乐观的预期。市场增长已导致中国汽车行业产能过剩，在本土国有汽车生产商中尤为严重。Local independents Geely and BYD have said they were optimistic about auto demand this year with the new government leadership in place.
中国民营汽车制造商吉利(Geely)和比亚迪(BYD)表示，在新一届政府的领导下，他们看好今年的汽车市场需求规模。“We are confident about this year’s growth,” said Lawrence Ang, executive director at Geely in Hong Kong last month. “China’s overall economy will be improved from last year, helping to boost vehicle demand.”
吉利汽车执行董事洪少伦(Lawrence Ang)上月在香港表示：“我们对今年的市场增长前景很有信心。中国的整体经济形势将好于去年，这有助于提振汽车需求。”However, Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton cautioned in a note that despite stronger than expected first-quarter sales in China, future yearly growth was not likely to exceed 6-7 per cent.
但伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)汽车分析师马克斯•沃伯顿(Max Warburton)在一份报告中警告称，虽然第一季度中国的汽车销售情况好于预期，但未来年度增幅不太可能超过6%至7%。He said: “Capacity additions still look set to outstrip demand.” He expected the industry to add at least 3.8m units of capacity by the end of the decade.
沃伯顿称：“目前看来产能扩张仍将超出市场需求。”他预计在2020年以前，中国汽车工业的产能将增长至少380万辆。”European and American car brands continued to take market share from Japanese rivals in China in the first quarter, auto analysts said, as the continuing political impact of a dispute over a set of islands left Japan’s carmakers struggling to recover ground.
汽车行业分析师们指出，第一季度在中国市场上，欧洲和美国汽车品牌继续从日本竞争对手手中抢得市场份额，中日两国围绕一个群岛的领土争端所产生的持续政治影响，导致日本汽车制造商很难收复失地。Luxury car sales in China continued to moderate from previous high double-digit levels, partly affected by the government’s austerity programme, which might have caused some buyers to delay ostentatious consumption.
豪华型轿车在华销量增速持续放缓，低于早前两位数的增长水平，部分受到政府部门厉行节约影响，这可能导致一些买方推迟炫耀型消费。But medium-term growth in the luxury sector is expected to remain strong as few retail analysts are predicting permanent impact from the austerity campaign.
但豪华型汽车的中期增长势头预计仍将保持强劲，因为几乎没有零售分析师认为政府的节俭运动将产生长期影响。“Compared with the US, Chinese [luxury car sales] will continue to grow at a stable and sustainable rate whereas the US and Japan are simply recovering from lost volume. China’s luxury market will probably double in size over the next five years,” Mr Russo said.
罗威表示：“与美国市场相比，中国的豪华轿车销量将继续以稳定的速度持续增长。而美国和日本的豪车销售目前仍未回复早前水平。在未来的五年中，中国的豪车市场规模很可能扩大一倍。”
