各方名流发声:苏格兰应该留在英国

The United Kingdom ranks as one of the most successful marriages in history. England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have survived ancient hatreds, tribal rivalry and war. Each nation has been enriched by a journey of enlightenment, empire, shared energy and enterprise.

联合王国(United Kingdom)是史上最成功的联姻之一。英格兰、苏格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰经历过历史恩怨、部落敌对和战争，却最终走到了一起。启蒙运动、帝国的辉煌、共同的活力与进取，这段旅程让其中的每个民族都得到了丰富。

In seven days, this splendid mess of a union, to quote Simon Schama, the British historian, risks being separated into its national parts. Scotland will vote in a referendum to decide whether to stay in the UK or sunder bonds stretching back to 1707. Opinion polls suggest the result is too close to call, a prospect which has alarmed financial markets, wrongfooted allies and sent a complacent coalition government scrambling to find a last-minute sweetener to win over the Scots.

几天后，这个“伟大而混乱的联盟”（借用英国历史学家西蒙•沙玛(Simon Schama)的说法）就有可能分裂为不同的民族国家。苏格兰将在9月18日举行公投，投票决定是继续留在英国，还是割裂苏格兰与英格兰自1707年起结成的联盟。民意调查结果显示，支持和反对独立的票数可能过于接近、难有清晰的胜负。这一前景让金融市场陷入了动荡，让英国的盟友慌了神，让原本自命不凡的英国联合政府急急忙忙寻找最后时刻的笼络手段，以争取苏格兰人留下。

Empires and nation states are not immune to break-up, but there is little precedent for a hitherto stable modern democracy splitting in peacetime, in the middle of an economic recovery. This is not the time for recrimination. For the moment, it is enough for this newspaper to declare that the path of separation is a fool’s errand, one fraught with danger and uncertainty.

帝国和民族国家有时不免会分裂，但一个迄今为止稳定的现代民主国家，在和平时期和经济复苏进程中分裂，这样的先例少之又少。眼下不是相互指责的时候。就目前而言，英国《金融时报》认为，仅仅这样说就足够了——分裂是一件徒劳无益、充满了危险和不确定的事情。

Scotland is a proud and vibrant nation. Scots have contributed disproportionately to the union. They have played a leading role in arts, commerce, literature, the military, politics and sport. But a vote in favour of secession would be an irreversible act with profound consequences, not merely for 5m Scots but also for the other 58m citizens of England, Wales and Northern Ireland (including 750,000 Scots living and working outside Scotland who under the terms of the referendum have no say on the future of their country).

苏格兰是一个充满了自豪和活力的民族。苏格兰人对联盟的贡献远远超过了其在英国总人口中所占比例。苏格兰人在艺术、商业、文学、军事、政治和体育中发挥着领先的作用。但投票决定独立是一件无法回头的事情，会产生深远影响——不仅会影响到500万苏格兰人，还会影响到其他5800万生活在英格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰的英国人（其中包括75万在苏格兰以外生活和工作、根据公投规则无法为自己国家的未来投上一票的苏格兰人）。

The act of separation would diminish the UK in every international body, notably the EU. It would raise complex – and still unanswered – questions about the common defence of the British Isles, the future of the currency and political arrangements for the rest of the UK. Above all, a Yes vote would ignore the lessons of the 20th century, a chapter in European history indelibly scarred by narrow nationalism.

分裂会削弱英国在每一个国际机构中的地位，特别是在欧盟(EU)中的地位。随之而来的还有各种复杂、且仍然无解的问题，比如不列颠群岛的共同防卫、英镑的未来、以及英国其余地区在政治上的安排。最重要的是，如果投票结果支持独立，那将是忽视20世纪的教训——狭隘的民族主义在欧洲的这一历史篇章中留下了永恒的伤疤。

A union born of a now-lost empire is one entirely suited to the world of the 21st century. The nation states that prosper in the age of globalisation are ones that bind themselves together in mutual endeavour. The experience of small states in the wake of the financial crisis is far from happy. Iceland and Ireland were left cruelly exposed. Further east, the Baltic states, brave and resourceful as the Scots, are members of the EU and Nato but still feel vulnerable to the bear’s paw of a revanchist Russia.

脱胎于如今已消逝的大英帝国的英格兰与苏格兰的联盟完全适合于21世纪的世界。在全球化时代蓬勃发展的民族国家，是那些通过共同努力实现民族联合的国家。金融危机后那些小国的经历堪称悲惨。冰岛和爱尔兰当时都非常无助。往东，与苏格兰人一样勇敢和足智多谋的波罗的海国家，尽管是欧盟和北约(Nato)成员国，但在复仇主义俄罗斯的熊爪面前仍然自觉脆弱。

The case against secession cannot rest on nostalgia, though the Better Together campaign has been lamentably short of passion compared with the energetic, well-funded Yes effort run by Alex Salmond, the beguiling first minister of Scotland. It must rest first on an understanding of the political forces which have made independence a tempting prospect for Scots, as well as a hard-nosed assessment of the risks involved for all concerned.

反对分裂不能只打怀旧牌，但令人扼腕的是，“在一起更好”(Better Together)运动与“独立苏格兰”(Yes Scotland)运动相比太缺乏激情了。富有迷惑力的苏格兰首席大臣亚历克斯•萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)领导的“独立苏格兰”运动则充满活力，且资金充裕。要有理有据地反对分裂，首先要理解是哪些政治作用力使得独立成为苏格兰人向往的前景，并对涉及所有相关方的风险进行注重实际的评估。

The debate about devolving power to Scotland goes back more than a century. Keir Hardie, the Scottish Labour leader, proposed home rule in 1888 but his call carried little resonance. Scots were playing a leading role in ruling one-quarter of the world’s population. Glasgow was famed as the “second city of the empire”.

关于向苏格兰下放权力的辩论可追溯至一个多世纪以前。1888年，当时的苏格兰工党领袖基尔•哈迪(Keir Hardie)曾呼吁苏格兰自治，但反响不大。那时的大英帝国统治着全世界四分之一的人口，而苏格兰人正积极参与这种统治。格拉斯哥在当时被誉为“大英帝国第二大城市”。

The ties that bind have loosened over the past 70 years. The empire is gone, and the workshop of the world is no more. Scotland’s transition to a post-industrialised economy has been painful, though its overall economic performance over recent decades has been strong.

曾经紧密的纽带在过去70年中渐渐松弛。大英帝国已逝去，英国也不再是“世界工厂”。苏格兰经济在后工业时代经历了痛苦的转型，不过在近几十年，其经济一直整体表现强劲。

England and Scotland have grown apart politically. In the 1950s, the Conservative and Unionist party – to remind David Cameron’s party of its proper name – had an absolute majority of parliamentary seats in Scotland. Today, the Tory party’s representation has shrunk to a single MP, partly a legacy of Margaret Thatcher’s ill-judged poll tax and the benign neglect of a strong pound which devastated manufacturing north and south of the border. The discovery of North Sea oil in the 1960s further reinforced Scottish nationalism.

英格兰和苏格兰在政治上渐行渐远。上世纪50年代，在英国国会里代表苏格兰各选区的议席中，保守与统一党（Conservative and Unionist party，保守党的现任首相戴维•卡梅伦应注意，这才是保守党的全称）占绝对多数。如今，托利党（Tory party，保守党的别称——译者注）议席缩减为仅1席。这在某种程度上要归罪于玛格丽特•撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)当年失策的人头税，以及对英镑走强的善意忽视（强势英镑摧毁了苏格兰和英格兰的制造业）。上世纪60年代北海发现石油，进一步助长了苏格兰人的民族主义。

Tony Blair believed he could stymie the nationalist movement with more devolution of powers. His Labour government established a Scottish parliament at Holyrood. In retrospect, devolution did nothing to halt the secular decline of Labour in Scotland. Too many of the party’s heavyweights treated Scotland as a rotten borough to help them to power in London. Devolution may have encouraged further divergence on policies such as pensions, social care or university education from those in England.

托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)以为他可以通过加大权力下放来阻止民族主义运动。他领导的工党政府在爱丁堡的圣路德(Holyrood)建立了苏格兰议会。回过头来看，权力下放丝毫未能阻止工党在苏格兰的长期衰落。工党太多重量级人物都曾将苏格兰当作“烂行政区”（rotten borough，指《1832年改革法案》(Reform Act 1832)出台前，英国的一些选民数量极少、因而选票容易被操纵的行政区——译者注），借之帮助自己在伦敦高升。权力下放或许促使了苏格兰与英格兰在养老、社会保障、大学教育等政策方面的差异进一步扩大。

Mr Salmond, a seasoned operator, has exploited the populist mood. Voters are angry about austerity caused by the financial crisis and alienated from the political establishment. Mr Salmond casts himself as an insurgent representing a new brand of civic nationalism in which the Scots will have control over their fate in a fresh young democracy.

萨尔蒙德是个老道的操纵者，他一直在利用这种民粹主义情绪。选民对金融危机导致的紧缩政策感到愤怒，与政治当权派产生了隔阂。萨尔蒙德将自己塑造为一个反叛者，代表一种新的公民民族主义，跟随这种民族主义，苏格兰人将通过一个崭新的新生民主国家掌握自己的命运。

Mr Salmond can tug on the emotions of his fellow countrymen but he has given few credible answers about the challenges – economic, social and international – which would face Scotland. His Panglossian pitch is that the Scots can have the best of all possible worlds: independence, the monarchy and the pound, and that a Scotland which retreats into a narrower nationalist identity will somehow be better equipped to prosper in a world of globalisation.

萨尔蒙德可以利用同胞的感情，但对于苏格兰可能面临的经济、社会和国际方面的挑战，他没有给出多少可信的答案。他的论调洋溢着过分乐观主义，说苏格兰可以拥有一切最好的——独立、君主制、还有英镑；他还说，苏格兰在退回更狭隘的民族主义身份之后，将以某种方式变得更适于在全球化世界中蓬勃发展。

His argument contains glaring inconsistencies. A currency union demands a political union. The eurozone’s travails show us as much. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, made clear again this week that political independence is incompatible with maintaining sterling as the currency of choice. Mr Salmond insists the English establishment is bluffing. This is no bluff. The currency uncertainty will blight every aspect of the Scottish economy, from commercial lending to mortgages. Without total clarity, every Scottish citizen is left exposed.

他的主张有显而易见的矛盾之处。货币联盟要求政治联盟。欧元区的痛苦经历就充分表明了这一点。英国央行(BoE)行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)上周已明确表示，政治独立与保留英镑为法定货币，两者不可兼得。萨尔蒙德坚称，英格兰当权派是在危言耸听。但这不是危言耸听。货币方面的不确定将让苏格兰经济的每个方面蒙上阴影，从商业贷款到抵押贷款。没有充分的确定性，每个苏格兰公民都面临风险。

Mr Salmond claims that separation is the best guarantee of future prosperity. His calculations are based on much wishful thinking covering vital matters such as the future oil price and how much of the UK’s debt would be assumed by the Scots. He presumes that it serves no one’s interest to be unreasonable about the terms of divorce, but he under-estimates the psychological shock. No one can predict the consequences.

萨尔蒙德宣称，独立是未来繁荣的最佳保证。他打的算盘大都基于一厢情愿的想法，掩盖了未来石油价格、苏格兰将承担多大份额的英国债务等关键问题。他认为，提出离谱的分家条款对任何人都没有好处，但他低估了心理的冲击。没有人能预测到这会产生何种影响。

Nor is it obvious why Scotland will gain early and automatic entry into the EU. Other European states with their own separatist movements – notably Spain – have little incentive to agree to a quick deal. The only certainty is uncertainty, at a high cost to Scotland and the UK. The shift of deposits and money out of Scotland this week is a harbinger.

苏格兰为何将能尽早和“自动”加入欧盟也令人费解。其他存在分裂运动的欧盟国家，特别是西班牙，没有多少动力同意迅速达成苏格兰入盟协议。唯一确定的事就是不确定，这对苏格兰和英国都意味着高昂的代价。上周存款和资金流出苏格兰，就是一个兆头。

There must be a better way. Britain needs a new political settlement that implements at home what it preaches in Europe: subsidiarity. For too long, the British government has imposed a “Whitehall-knows-best” policy on the nations and regions. More devolution is the answer, but not at any price. Mr Cameron and his London-based colleagues should tread carefully in the coming days. It is far from clear how England, the preponderant power, would fit into a federalised union in which Scotland enjoyed all political gifts short of independence.

必然存在更好的方式。英国需要新的政治安排，将其在欧洲鼓吹的辅助原则（subsidiarity，即中央权力机构应起辅助作用，只履行地方机构不能履行的职责——译者注）应用到自己身上。太长时间以来，英国政府对各民族和各地区都实行“白厅最懂”政策。加大权力下放是解决方法，但不是不惜代价。未来几天，卡梅伦和他的伦敦同僚们应该小心行事。在一个让苏格兰享有除独立以外的一切政治好处的联邦制联盟中，占有优势的英格兰该如何摆正自己的位置，这一点还远不清楚。

Everything turns on the vote on September 18. It is not too late to remind the Scots and the rest of the UK how much they have benefited from being British. Great Britain stands for an expansive and inclusive view of the world. The union is something precious, not a bauble to be cast aside. In a week’s time, the Scots can vote with a sense of ambition to build on those successes. Rather than retreat into tribalism, they can continue to be part of a nation rooted not just in history and culture but a common destiny which over three centuries has served all so well.

9月18日投票那一天，一切都会改变。我们应该提醒苏格兰人和其他地方的英国人，英国人的身份带给了他们多少好处，现在提醒还不晚。大不列颠代表一种视野开阔、具有包容性的世界观。英国这个联盟是宝物，不是什么可以随便扔掉的小玩意。几天后，苏格兰人就可以带着续写成功的豪情投票了。与其退回部落主义，他们可以继续做联合王国的一部分，这个国家不仅根源于历史和文化，还根源于三个多世纪以来带给所有人福祉的共同目标。