美油跌破50美元 全球金融市场不寒而栗

HOUSTON — Oil prices tumbled below $50 a barrel on Monday, spooking global financial markets and signaling that the remarkable 50 percent price drop since June was continuing this year and even quickening.

休斯顿——周一，石油价格跌至每桶50美元以下，这个消息令全球金融市场不寒而栗，而且意味着，自去年6月以来出现50%的惊人降幅后，油价下跌的趋势今年将继续，甚至可能加速。

The new drop in American and global benchmarks of more than 5 percent was accompanied by a series of reports of increased Middle Eastern oil exports; continuing increases in American production; and renewed worries about the declining economic fortunes of Europe.

美国和全球基准指数纷纷出现5%以上的跌幅的同时，一系列报告显示，中东的石油出口出现增长；美国的石油产量不断上升；对于欧洲经济前景的担忧再次浮现。

The plunge once again sent jitters through global markets. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 331 points, or 1.86 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, a broader benchmark, fell 37.62 points, or 1.83 percent. And the Vix, a measure of market volatility that is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, leaped by around 12 percent.

石油价格的大幅下跌又一次让全球市场陷入紧张。道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)下跌了331点，降幅1.86%，与此同时，范围更广的基准指数标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500)下跌了37.62点，降幅1.83%。而评估市场波动率的VIX指数(Volatility Index)则上涨了约12%，该指数也被华尔街称为恐慌指数。

In response, investors sought safety in government bonds around the world. As bond prices rose, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.04 percent on Monday.

全球投资者因此纷纷从政府债券投资中寻求安全感。随着国债价格的上涨，10年期国债收益率周一下跌到2.04%。

The decline in oil was not the only source of concern in the markets.

然而，油价下跌并非引发市场担忧的唯一因素。

Worries about Greece’s ability to stay in the eurozone have reasserted themselves in recent days, for instance. The dollar continued its surge against the euro on Monday.

例如近日，对希腊能否继续留在欧元区的担忧再次突显。周一，美元对欧元继续大幅升值。

Still, as the oil price decline has continued, investors have increasingly seen it as a bad omen for the global economy. The drop may point to lower demand for oil and lower economic activity. And the decline suggests that policy makers have not managed to deal with the threat of deflation, or falling prices.

不过，随着油价持续下跌，投资者越发认为这是全球经济的不祥之兆。油价下跌可能指向了石油需求的下降和经济活动的萎缩。它也意味着决策者未能妥善应对通货紧缩的威胁。

“There is certainly a deflationary mind-set in the market,” said Jim Vogel, a debt markets strategist for FTN Financial, “and as we enter 2015, it’s beginning to nag some people that there could be a deflationary component to the economy.”

“毫无疑问市场上存在着通缩思维，”FTN金融公司(FTN Financial)的债券市场分析师吉姆·沃格尔(Jim Vogel)说，“随着2015年的到来，有些人已经开始担忧，经济中可能存在通缩元素。”

Leading the way is oil.

首当其冲的就是石油市场。

“It is a very shaky start for the oil market,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service. “The norm is a lot of money comes into commodity index funds at the beginning of the year, and that can create a market rally. Today, instead of new money coming into oil, you got some more old money going out of oil.”

“对于石油市场来说，这是一个非常不稳定的开局，”原油价格信息服务公司(Oil Price Information Service)的全球能源分析负责人汤姆·克洛扎(Tom Kloza)说。“正常的情况应该是，年初有大量资金进入大宗商品指数基金，并引发市场的上扬。但现在，非但没有新的资金进入石油领域，还有更多旧资金撤出了石油市场。”

West Texas Intermediate crude, for example, dipped below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than five years, and Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell more than 6 percent, to under $53 a barrel.

例如，美国西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)下跌至每桶50美元以下，属五年多以来的首次。而全球基准布伦特原油(Brent Crude)则下跌超过6%，至每桶53美元之下。

The drop in prices has led to a rising tide of oil company announcements in recent days of investment cuts for the coming months. Ensign Energy Services, a Canadian drilling contractor, reported that it would be laying off 700 workers, or roughly 10 percent of its work force, in California fields. Several Texas-based companies that have borrowed heavily in recent years to produce in new Texas and North Dakota shale fields are expected to announce steep investment and job cuts in the coming days.

由于油价下跌，越来越多的石油公司近日宣布将在未来数月内削减投资。加拿大钻井承包商恩赛因能源服务(Ensign Energy Services)称，将在加州的油田裁掉700名工人，相当于员工总数的约10%。总部位于德克萨斯的多家企业最近几年大规模举债，为的是在德克萨斯和北达科他州开发页岩油田，预计它们未来几日将宣布大规模削减投资和裁员的决定。

Consumers continued to benefit from the oil price collapse, with the AAA auto club reporting on Monday that the average national price for regular gasoline had fallen to $2.20 a gallon, 8 cents lower than a week ago, 51 cents lower than a month ago, and $1.11 below a year ago. Energy experts say American families are likely to have as much as $115 billion more in disposable income in 2015 than last year because of lower gasoline prices alone. Additional benefits should come from drops in heating oil and diesel prices.

油价大幅下跌继续让消费者受益，AAA汽车俱乐部周一表示，全国普通汽油的平均价格下降到每加仑2.2美元，较一周前下跌8美分，较一个月前下跌51美分，较一年前下跌1.11美元。能源专家说，2015年，单是因为汽油价格的下跌，美国家庭的可支配收入可能就比去年多出1150亿美元。取暖油和柴油价格的下降应该也会令消费者受益。

The last time oil and gasoline prices fell this low was in the wake of the 2008-9 financial collapse, when crude oil fell from well over $100 to below $40 a barrel in a matter of months. Energy analysts say the current price slump is of an entirely different nature, based primarily on a glut of oil being produced in the United States, along with increased production in Canada, Iraq and a handful of other countries.

石油和汽油价格上次跌到这么低的水平，还是在2008年至2009年的金融危机之后。当时，在数月时间里，原油价格从每桶远超100美元，跌至不足40美元。能源分析人士称，当下的价格下跌在本质上截然不同，主要是因为美国生产的石油供过于求，同时加拿大、伊拉克和其他几个国家的产量也有所增加。

While in the past the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has sometimes agreed to cut back production to shore up prices, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf producers have decided to protect their global market share by cutting prices in the United States and Asian markets while increasing production somewhat.

在过去，石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)有时会同意削减产量以维持价格，但这一次，沙特阿拉伯和波斯湾的其他产油国决定保护自己的全球市场份额，方式是在美国和亚洲市场降价，并稍微增加一些产量。

In a recent interview with Middle East Petroleum and Economic Publications, based in Cyprus, the Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, indicated his country would remain steadfast rather than cut production anytime soon. “If I reduce, what happens to my market share?” Mr. Naimi said. “The price will go up and the Russians, the Brazilians, U.S. shale oil producers will take my share.”

最近接受总部位于塞浦路斯的中东石油和经济出版公司(Middle East Petroleum and Economic Publications)的采访时，沙特石油部长阿里·纳伊米(Ali al-Naimi)表示，沙特的立场不变，不会在近期减产。“如果减产，我的市场份额怎么办？”纳伊米说。“价格会上涨，俄罗斯、巴西和美国的页岩油生产商会夺走我的份额。”

Adding further pressure to prices is the weakening demand for oil and petroleum products in Europe and developing nations. That weakness is compounded as increasingly efficient vehicles come onto the market and China seeks to reduce the oil dependency of its economy.

欧洲和发展中国家对石油及石油产品的需求日渐疲软，致使价格进一步承压。随着越来越节能的车辆走向市场，并且中国寻求降低经济对石油的依赖，这种疲软的成因是多方面的。

There is little reason to believe any of those trends will change until midyear at the earliest, energy experts say. According to Simmons & Company, based in Houston, the 93 million-barrel-a-day global market will continue to be oversupplied by at least one million barrels a day during the first half of 2015.

能源专家表示，无论怎么看，这些趋势中的任何一个，都至少要到下半年才可能出现变化。总部位于休斯顿的西蒙斯公司(Simmons & Company)表示，2015年上半年，全球市场每天的需求量为9300万桶，供应量依然至少会多出100万桶。

“It might be the dead of winter, but it looks as though markets will confront considerably more downside risk in the months ahead,” according to a Citi Research report released Sunday night, “and it will likely take well into the year before prices will bottom, let alone achieve a new equilibrium.”

“可能是严冬，但看上去在未来几个月里，市场似乎将面临更不利的风险，”花旗研究(Citi Research)周日夜间发布的一份报告说。“可能要过相当长一段时间，价格才会触底，更别说达到一个新的平衡了。”

Citi says it is most probable that the oil market will stabilize by the end of 2015, with the Brent price averaging $63 a barrel for the year — several dollars above the current price. But its more bearish forecast, with a 30 percent probability, is for Brent to average $55 for the year, roughly the current price.

花旗研究表示，最可能出现的情况是，石油市场到2015年年底才会稳定下来，布伦特原油价格的平均水平为63美元，比眼下的价格高出几美元。但该机构还有一个更不看好行情的预测，认为有30%的可能性是，布伦特原油价格的全年均值将为55美元，与当前的价格大致持平。

A number of signs suggest that oil and oil product supplies will soon be increasing. The ramping up of several refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is likely to increase exports of products like gasoline and diesel by 500,000 barrels a day in the coming months. Even without the Keystone XL pipeline, other Canadian pipelines coming online will bring as much as 350,000 more barrels onto the market.

大量迹象表明，石油和石油产品供应很快将会增加。未来几个月，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国几处炼油厂产量的增加，可能会导致汽油和柴油等产品的日出口量增加50万桶。即使没有Keystone XL输油管道，加拿大即将上线的其他管道也会让市场供应增加多达35万桶油。

Citi has projected that global investments in oil exploration and production will decline up to 15 percent this year, but American companies continue to produce more efficiently. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian global consulting firm, issued a report on Monday saying that the average break-even price for the principal shale fields in the United States had dropped to $58 a barrel, with the core areas of some fields remaining economical to produce at $50.

花旗预测，今年全球对石油勘探和生产的投资最高可能会减少15%，不过美国公司的生产效率还会继续提高。挪威国际咨询公司里斯塔能源(Rystad Energy)周一发布报告称，美国主要页岩油田的平均保本价已跌至每桶58美元，部分油田的核心区域即使保持50美元的生产价，也依然是划算的。

Oil-producing states are expected to suffer economically from the oil price drop, although the top oil-producing state, Texas, has worked hard to diversify its economy after the price bust of the 1980s. With a projected $3.5 billion budget deficit, Alaska has already announced a delay in six important infrastructure projects, including a gas pipeline from the North Slope.

产油州预计会因油价下跌而蒙受经济损失，尽管经历了上世纪80年代的油价疲软后，最大的产油州德克萨斯州已努力让经济多元化。预计会面临35亿美元财政赤字的阿拉斯加，已经宣布推迟六个重要的基础设施项目，其中包括一条从北坡油田开始的天然气管道。