Core inflation in Japan fell further last month to just 0.5 per cent year-on-year, as plunging oil prices offset the effects of growing domestic economic activity and massive monetary loosening. The sluggish rise in underlying prices, the lowest in 18 months, comes as some economists are ratcheting their forecasts still lower. Barclays economists are looking at an increase of 0.3 per cent for this month and, depending on oil prices, reckon a slide back into deflation from May “is now more likely”. The deceleration came in spite of a 1 per cent rise in industrial production on the previous month, suggesting Japan is shaking off last year’s technical recession, and a fall in the unemployment rate to 3.4 per cent — the lowest since the 1990s. It highlights the fundamental tension in Japan’s economy after the aggressive stimulus programme of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: activity is picking up, but it is still not resulting in upward pressure on prices. The numbers suggest the Bank of Japan will struggle to hit its inflation forecast of 1 per cent for the year to March 2016. That threatens the BoJ’s credibility, but does not mean Abenomics has failed — when the economy runs out of unemployed workers and idle factories, inflation should pick up, say analysts. Consumer prices excluding fresh food, the BoJ’s preferred measure, rose by 2.5 per cent on a year earlier in December compared with 2.7 per cent in November. Stripping out roughly 2 percentage points because of last year’s consumption tax increase gives a core figure of 0.5 per cent. 因油价下挫抵消了国内经济活动升温以及大规模货币宽松政策的影响，去年12月，日本核心通胀率同比下跌至0.5%。 就在日本核心通胀率达到18个月最低并增长乏力之际，经济学家们也正在调降其预测。巴克莱(Barclays)经济学家预测本月通胀率将达到0.3%，他们基于油价走势判断，日本“目前更有可能”从5月起回归通缩。 与此同时，去年12月日本工业产出增长1%，表明日本正摆脱去年的技术性衰退，失业率降至3.4%，为上世纪90年代以来最低。 这突显出，在日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)推出大规模刺激计划后日本经济的根本紧张状况：经济活动在升温，但仍没有给物价带来上行压力。 上述数据表明，日本央行(Bank of Japan)将很难实现一年内通胀率达到1%的预期，一年的截止日期为2016年3月。这将危及日本央行的可信性，但并不意味着安倍经济学已失败，分析人士表示，当不再有员工失业和工厂闲置，通胀应会上升。 去年12月，日本央行青睐的指标——除去生鲜食品以外的消费者物价同比上涨2.5%，11月涨幅则为2.7%。在剔除因去年消费税上调所带来的大约2个百分点的涨幅后，核心通胀率为0.5%。
