中国政府还会救市吗 Crash poses serious threat to Beijing’s credibility

After China’s stock market experienced its second worst day yesterday, all eyes are on Beijing, where the government faces a stark dilemma and a serious challenge to its credibility.

中国股市昨日出现史上第二糟糕的单日跌幅之后，各方都把目光投向北京，中国政府面临一个严峻的两难问题，其公信力也面临严重挑战。

The unprecedented intervention measures already rolled out in the past month include a ban on short selling and initial public offerings, forced purchases of shares by state-owned investors, a ban on sales by leading shareholders and direct credit support from the central bank.

过去一个月已经推出的前所未有的干预措施包括：禁止卖空和首次公开发行(IPO)，强迫国有投资者买入股票，禁止大股东减持股份，以及由中国央行提供直接信贷支持。

For three consecutive weeks, China’s benchmark index has rallied from the low it hit in early July, when the government unveiled most of these measures following a collapse of more than 30 per cent in less than a month.

在连续三周时间里，中国基准股指从7月初触及的低位反弹。上述多数救市措施是在7月上旬出炉的，此前中国股市在不到一个月里下滑逾30%。

After a mediocre performance for most of yesterday, the sell-off resumed in earnest in late trading, taking the Shanghai Composite Index from a drop of about 3 per cent at 2pm to close an hour later down 8.5 per cent.

昨日大部分时间里股市表现平平，但尾盘出现大举抛售，使上证综指(Shanghai Composite Index)的当日跌幅从下午2时的3%左右扩大至一小时后收盘时的8.5%。

As of yesterday evening there was no word from the authorities on what they planned to do next, and officials at the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission refused to answer any questions when contacted by the Financial Times.

截至昨晚，当局没有表示下一步会做什么。英国《金融时报》联系的央行和中国证券监督管理委员会(CSRC)官员拒绝回答任何问题。

“If [the government] does nothing, then all its previous efforts will have been wasted but if they continue with the rescue efforts, then the hole will get bigger and bigger,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. “We hope the regulators will respect the market and the rules of the market.”

“如果（政府）什么都不做，那么之前的所有努力都将付诸东流，但如果他们继续进行救市努力，那么这个洞会变得越来越大，”上海高级金融学院(Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance)副院长朱宁表示。“我们希望监管者尊重市场和市场规则。”

A big problem for the government is that its earlier disrespect for market rules, and the subsequent rally, have left investors expecting ever greater intervention from the authorities every time the index swoons. “Today everyone is just looking to the actions of policymakers, mainly to see if there will be further government rescue funds coming into the market,” said Ye Tan, a Shanghai-based stock market commentator.

对政府来说，一个很大的问题是，之前对市场规则的不尊重以及随后的反弹，已经让投资者期待每次指数下挫都会促使当局出台力度越来越大的干预行动。“如今大家都只是看着政策制定者的行动，主要是看有没有更多政府救市资金进入市场，”上海的股市评论员叶檀表示。

In China, stocks are only allowed to fall or rise by a maximum of 10 per cent on any given day before they are automatically temporarily suspended from trading.

在中国，股票每日只可上涨或下跌10%，触及这个单日涨跌上限就会自动暂停交易。

Yesterday, nearly 1,800 stocks — more than 60 per cent of all stocks listed on the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen — fell by the daily limit of 10 per cent and were suspended, suggesting the overall market collapse would have been much worse than 8.5 per cent if it were not for this rule.

昨日，近1800只股票（占沪深股市主板全部股票的60%以上）跌停，似乎表明如果没有单日涨跌限制，大盘的暴跌会厉害得多。

Another problem facing the Chinese authorities is the worrying absence of any obvious trigger for yesterday’s rout.

中国当局面对的另一个问题是，昨日的暴跌似乎是在没有明显触发因素的情况下发生的，这一点令人担忧。

Possible culprits suggested by Chinese analysts ranged from the rising price of piglets to expectations that the US Federal Reserve would soon raise interest rates.

中国分析师们提出各种可能性，从猪仔涨价，到市场预期美联储(Federal Reserve)不久将加息。

China’s consumer price index is heavily weighted towards food staples such as pork, and if inflation were to take off it would restrict the central bank’s ability to continue loosening monetary policy to prop up equity prices and the broader economy.

在中国的居民消费价格指数(CPI)中，猪肉等主食占有较大比重。如果通胀上扬，那将限制中国央行继续放松货币政策、以支撑股价和整体经济的能力。

Yesterday’s stock market fall will increase pressure on the ruling Communist party to cut interest rates further and reduce the amount banks must hold in reserves, especially as most indicators show gross domestic product growth continues to decelerate.

昨日股市下跌将给执政的共产党带来更大压力，要求其进一步降低利率和银行的存款准备金率，尤其是因为大部分指标显示国内生产总值(GDP)增长继续减速。

China grew 7.4 per cent last year, its slowest pace in 24 years, and Beijing will struggle to hit its full-year growth target of “around 7 per cent” this year after the economy grew by exactly 7 per cent in each of the first two quarters.

中国经济去年增长7.4%，这是24年来最慢的增速。今年北京方面将竭尽全力达到“7%左右”的全年增长目标，此前两个季度的同比增长都恰好达到7%。

A growing number of prominent officials and former officials are calling for further action to boost growth, which has been eroded by a bursting real estate bubble and falling corporate profits.

越来越多的知名官员和前任官员呼吁采取进一步行动刺激经济增长，近来中国经济增长受到房地产泡沫破裂和企业盈利下降的拖累。

Zhu Baoliang, director of the economic forecast department of the State Information Centre, a government research agency, told Reuters the stock market crash was having a deep impact on the real economy and that the authorities had to cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy further.

政府研究机构——国家信息中心(State Information Centre)经济预测部主任祝宝良对路透社(Reuters)表示，股市暴跌正对实体经济产生深刻影响，当局不得不进一步降息和放松货币政策。

Official figures released yesterday showed industrial corporate profits in China fell 0.7 per cent in the first half of the year, with profits falling in June from a year earlier for the first time in three months. Apart from its desperate efforts to prop up the equity market, many analysts complain the government’s credibility has been undermined by overly positive forecasts from senior officials regarding China’s economy.

昨日发布的官方数据显示，今年上半年中国工业企业利润同比下降0.7%，其中6月份的利润同比下降是三个月来头一回。除了拼命撑起股市的努力外，很多分析师抱怨称，高级官员对中国经济过于乐观的预测削弱了政府的公信力。