英国应为加息做好准备 Rates cannot stay at rock bottom for much longer

The quiet period for UKeng.com/tags-1558-0.html" target="_blank" >Britain’s Monetary policy is drawing to an end. Over the next few months, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will again need to pay more than lip service to the idea it should increase the cost of borrowing.

英国货币政策的平静期正走向尾声。未来几个月，在加息问题上，英国央行(BOE)货币政策委员会将再次需要采取实际行动，而不只是嘴上说说而已。

Respected organisations such as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research expect the first quarter-point interest rate rise from 0.5 per cent in February. The balance on the MPC is more fluid than many people realise.

英国国家经济社会研究院(National Institute of Economic and Social Research)等一些受尊敬的组织预测，明年2月英国央行将把利率从0.5%首次上调25个基点。英国央行货币政策委员会的总体立场要比很多人以为的更不稳定。

Only one member, Ian McCafferty, is currently voting for tighter policy. But other external members have said they are close to switching sides. Were governor Mark Carney to join in, there is a strong chance a majority supporting a rise would be automatic. Two of his voting deputies, Sir Jon Cunliffe and Minouche Shafik, have shown no desire to have any public views on interest rates, let alone display any thinking independent of the governor’s.

目前只有一名委员伊恩麦卡弗蒂(Ian McCafferty)投票支持加息。但其他外部委员表示，他们很快就可能改变主意。如果英国央行行长马克愠尼(Mark Carney，上图)加入他们这个阵营的话，就有很大可能自动形成多数人支持加息的局面。两位副行长乔恩丠里夫爵士(Sir Jon Cunliffe)和米诺切夏弗克(Minouche Shafik)无意就利率发表公开看法，更别说提出任何有别于卡尼的独立看法了。

With unemployment having fallen to 5.4 per cent and regular private sector pay growing more than 3 per cent, the standard policy question is framed incorrectly. Rather than ask when interest rates should rise, we should wonder why they are still at rock bottom.

英国失业率已降至5.4%，私营部门固定工资增长逾3%，在这种情况下，我们提出的政策问题错了。我们应该问利率为何仍处于谷底，而不是应何时加息。

Some arguments for keeping interest rates at 0.5 per cent can be quickly dismissed. Current low levels of inflation — prices fell 0.1 per cent in the year to September — mainly reflect the falling prices of oil, food, other commodities and imports. But these prices will not keep falling forever. Just as high inflation in 2011 proved no bar to a timely expansion of quantitative easing, low inflation today should not stand in the way of monetary policy normalisation.

一些支持将利率维持在0.5%的理由很容易被驳倒。当前的低通胀（截至9月的一年，物价下跌0.1%）主要反映出石油、食品、其他大宗商品以及进口品价格下跌。但这些价格不会一直下跌。2011年的高通胀没有阻碍量化宽松的及时扩大，同样的，如今的低通胀也不应阻碍货币政策的正常化。

A slowdown in growth to 0.5 per cent should also cause the MPC little concern; the economy is still expanding fast enough to cut unemployment rapidly and raise employment to a new record. Concerns that a rate rise might be followed by a cut if conditions deteriorate should not remotely be considered suitable grounds for delaying a rate rise. Central bankers who prioritise avoiding short-term embarrassment over the UK economic interest have no place on policymaking committees. These suggestions are laughable.

经济增速放缓至0.5%也不应引起英国央行货币政策委员会的担忧；英国经济的扩张速度足以快速降低失业率，使就业提升至历史新高。有人担心加息之后如果情况恶化，可能需要紧跟着降息，这种担忧丝毫不应被视为推迟加息的合适借口。把避免短期窘境排在英国经济利益之前的央行官员是不适合在政策制定委员会任职的。这些看法很可笑。

By contrast, the MPC needs to take seriously the view of its chief economist Andy Haldane that interest rates even at 0.5 per cent are providing little economic stimulus. If that were true, monetary policy would in effect already have tightened, without anyone pulling a policy lever. But the evidence — 8 per cent annual growth of unsecured credit; rampant increases in consumer spending — suggests interest rates at 0.5 per cent are still remarkably effective in encouraging borrowing and spending.

相比之下，英国央行货币政策委员会需要认真考虑其首席经济学家安迪哈德恩(Andy Haldane)的观点，他认为，即便利率处于0.5%也几乎无法带来任何经济刺激。如果确实如此，那么货币政策实际上应该已在没有动用任何政策工具的情况下收紧了。但证据（无担保信贷每年增长8%；消费支出大幅扩张）表明，利率在0.5%仍显著有效地鼓励了借贷和支出。

There are many weak arguments for avoiding higher interest rates. Still, the BoE should be cautious about action in the near future. When ribbed that the bank cannot move until the Federal Reserve makes up its mind on interest rates, Mr Carney protests and protests too much that UK monetary policy is fully independent of the US. The MPC should be concerned that a rise before the Fed risks attracting huge capital inflows to Britain, pushing sterling up too far and killing the recovery. Britain might be an island, but its economy is not independent of the actions of others.

避免加息的很多理由都不具说服力。不过，英国央行对于在近期采取行动应当保持谨慎。外界嘲笑说，在美联储(Fed)做出利率决定前英国央行不可能采取行动，对此卡尼多次反驳说英国的货币政策完全独立于美国。英国央行货币政策委员会应担心，在美联储之前加息可能会吸引大量资金流入英国，令英镑汇率过度上涨并扼杀经济复苏。英国虽然是个岛，但英国经济无法不受其他国家行动的影响。

For now, there is also little risk in keeping rates on hold, whereas the consequences of the first rate rise after eight long years are much less certain. Powerful at present, this argument cannot be used in perpetuity; it would always prevent action, guaranteeing an eventual monetary policy mistake.

就眼下来说，让利率保持不变的风险也很小，而在长达8年后首次加息的后果却不确定得多。尽管目前来看这种观点具有很强的说服力，但不可能一直如此；这种观点总会阻碍行动，最终犯下货币政策错误。