耶伦再度释放加息信号 Yellen signals US economy is strong enough for a rate rise

The US economy had “recovered substantially” from the post-crisis recession and was set for further growth and firmer inflation, Janet Yellen said, as she laid the groundwork for the first upward move in official interest rates since 2006.

珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)称，美国经济已经从后危机时代的衰退“大幅复苏”，并正在趋向进一步增长和更坚实的通胀。她为自2006年以来首次上调官方利率铺平了道路。

A rate rise would testify to the progress the US has made in shrugging off the legacy of the crash, the Fed chair said, adding there were risks in waiting too long to start normalising policy.

这位美联储(Fed)主席称，加息将证明美国在摆脱金融危机遗留问题上取得的进展，她补充称，等待太久才启动政策正常化是有风险的。

Dangers from abroad had also diminished since September, when the Fed held fire on rates citing risks from China and financial markets.

自9月美联储因中国及金融市场风险而维持利率不变以来，海外风险也已经降低。

An upward move widely expected on December 16 at the Fed’s next meeting would put the US on a sharply divergent course from many other advanced nations. In the euro area, the European Central Bank is expected to loosen policy today as it attempts to lift inflation and nurture the region’s recovery.

人们普遍预期美联储将在12月16日下次会议上宣布的加息，将使美国走上与其他很多发达国家截然不同的道路。在欧元区，为了推升通胀，扶持该地区经济复苏，欧洲央行(ECB)今日预计将放松政策。

The ECB is likely to extend and expand its programme of quantitative easing, and could make a further cut to its deposit rate. However, German-led opposition within the bank could limit the extent of further action, potentially disappointing markets.

欧洲央行很可能会延长并扩大其量化宽松计划，并可能会进一步下调存款利率。然而，欧洲央行内部以德国为首的反对方可能会限制进一步举措的力度，这可能会令市场失望。

Alluding to the key test the Fed has set before tightening monetary policy, Ms Yellen said her confidence in the inflation outlook had been “bolstered” by recent strength in the jobs market, adding that there had been welcome signs of a pick-up in wage growth.

耶伦提及美联储设定的在收紧货币政策前的关键测试，称就业市场近期的强劲表现“支撑”了她对通胀前景的信心，并补充称，工资增长也出现了可喜的上升迹象。

The Federal Open Market Committee gathers in two weeks’ time for a much anticipated rate-setting meeting, with financial markets now primed for a possible increase in official short-term interest rates from current near-zero levels. In its last statement, the central bank formally put the world on notice that a move was possible in December.

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)两周后将召开万众期待的利率制定会议，金融市场眼下已经为官方短期利率可能从目前接近于零的水平有所上调做好了准备。在该委员会上次声明中，美联储正式提醒了全世界其可能在12月加息。

“The US economy has recovered substantially since the Great Recession,” said Ms Yellen in Washington yesterday.

“自大衰退以来，美国经济已经大幅复苏，”耶伦昨天在华盛顿表示。

Even if the Fed raises rates, Ms Yellen has been at pains to stress that increases will be incremental. In her speech she said the Fed would be cautious in tightening policy because the interest rate compatible with stable economic conditions remains historically low and may rise only gradually.

即使美联储上调利率，耶伦也在极力强调加息将会是渐进的。她在讲话中称，美联储将会谨慎地收紧政策，因为与稳定的经济状况相符的利率水平仍然处于历史低位，只能逐渐上调。

The Fed’s last set of projections suggested increases at a pace of about 100 basis points a year in 2016 and 2017, which would still be quicker than the speed forecast by financial markets.

美联储上一次预测似乎表明，2016年和2017年将以每年100个基点左右的幅度加息，这仍然快于金融市场的预期。

Ms Yellen said the US economy was still not at full employment in her view — a verdict that contrasts with that of some of her more bullish colleagues.

耶伦称，在她看来美国经济仍然没有实现充分就业——这与她的一些更为乐观的同事的结论形成对比。

But she warned that if the Fed waits too long to move it could end up getting behind the curve and then being forced to rise sharply. “Holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability,” she added.

但是她警告称，如果美联储为加息等待太久，就有可能落后于曲线、然后被迫大幅加息。“将联邦利率保持在现有水平上太久，还可能会鼓励过度冒险，从而破坏金融稳定，”她补充称。