新兴市场巨额准主权债务拉响警报

More than $800bn of emerging market sovereign debt is being camouflaged by the growing use of bonds that offer implicit state backing without always appearing on government balance sheets, according to research.

研究显示，有超过8000亿美元的新兴市场主权债务伪装成了这样一些债券的形式——提供隐含的国家担保，却不总是出现在政府的资产负债表上。这些债券正在得到越来越多的使用。

The stock of so-called quasi-sovereign bonds issued in dollars and other hard currencies by emerging markets has risen sharply in the past 12 months to overtake that of all external emerging market sovereign debt by the end of 2015.

由新兴市场以美元和其他硬通货发行的所谓准主权债券的存量在过去12个月里急剧上升，截至2015年底超过了新兴市场全部主权外债的存量。

The growing use of such bonds suggests that developing countries are increasingly transferring debt obligations to third parties that have taken advantage of historically low interest rates to load up with cheap debt.

此类债券用得越来越多，似乎表明发展中国家日趋把债务转移到第三方，由其利用处于历史低位的利率大量举债。

Emerging markets are already under strain as the US dollar strengthens against the renminbi and other emerging market currencies, making the cost of servicing debt denominated in dollars harder to bear.

新兴市场已受到压力，因为美元相对于人民币和其他新兴市场货币走高，使美元债务的偿还成本更难承受。

Although official debt-to-gross domestic product levels of countries such as India, Russia and China remain low by global standards, the growth of less visible debt they might still have to guarantee in a crisis means that their potential liabilities may be higher.

虽然印度、俄罗斯和中国等国家官方的债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比按全球标准衡量仍然较低，但不太显眼的债务（一旦爆发危机，它们仍可能不得不担保此类债务）的增长意味着，它们的潜在负债水平可能更高。

“This has been a source of worry for some time, in part because it does not always appear on government balance sheets,” said Lee Buchheit, a partner at Cleary Gottlieb and expert on sovereign debt default. “Emerging markets have benefited from interest rates at historic low levels and commodity prices at historic highs. In the last year both of these have begun to unwind. If the resulting strains on a country compel a sovereign debt rearrangement of some kind, these contingent liabilities of the sovereign will need to be addressed.”

“这个问题令人忧心已经有一段时期了，这在一定程度上是因为此类债务并不总是出现在政府的资产负债表上，”美国佳利律师事务所(Cleary Gottlieb)合伙人、主权债务违约问题专家李布赫海特(Lee Buchheit)表示，“新兴市场此前受益于历史低位的利率和历史高位的大宗商品价格。过去一年里，这两方面的局面都开始逆转。如果由此造成的压力迫使某个国家进行某种形式的主权债务重组，该国的此类主权或有负债将需要得到处理。”

New figures from JPMorgan and Bond Radar show that issuance of quasi-sovereign bonds outpaced that of sovereign bonds in emerging markets last year, raising the stock of such debt from $710bn in 2014 to a record $839bn by the end of 2015. By comparison, the stock of all external emerging market sovereign debt stood at $750bn at the end of last year, according to JPMorgan.

来自摩根大通(JPMorgan)和Bond Radar的新数据显示，去年新兴市场的准主权债券的发行量超过主权债券，使前者的存量从2014年的7100亿美元增至2015年底8390亿美元的创纪录水平。相比之下，摩根大通数据显示，去年底新兴市场全部主权外债的存量为7500亿美元。

The cost of selling bonds with either an explicit or implicit guarantee of the government is lower than other corporate bonds.

发售具有政府担保（无论明示或是暗示）的债券的成本低于其他公司债券。

Quasi-sovereign borrowers include 100 per cent state-owned entities such as Mexico’s Pemex, local governments in countries such as China, and entities in which the government owns more than 50 per cent of the equity or has more than 50 per cent of the voting rights — a description that encompasses Brazil’s Petrobras.

准主权借款人包括100%的国有企业——如墨西哥国家石油公司(Pemex)；中国等国家的地方政府；以及政府持有50%以上股权、或有50%以上投票权的实体——这个描述适用于巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)。

However, the treatment of such debt is not uniform. Bonds issued by Pemex are included in debt-to-GDP calculations for Mexico, but this is unusual, and only 19 of the 181 quasi-sovereign bonds tracked by JPMorgan carry an explicit sovereign guarantee.

然而，这种债务的处理并不统一。由墨西哥国家石油公司发行的债券被计入该国的债务与GDP之比计算，但这并非常态。同时，在摩根大通追踪的181只准主权债券中，只有19只带有明确的主权担保。

In 2009, investors were shocked when Dubai refused to guarantee the debts of Dubai World, a state-owned holding company with $59bn in liabilities, saying it had never offered a sovereign guarantee.

2009年，迪拜拒绝担保负债590亿美元的国有控股公司迪拜世界(Dubai World)的债务，称它从未提供主权担保。这让投资者震惊。

Neighbouring Abu Dhabi later provided a $10bn bailout.

其兄弟酋长国阿布扎比后来提供了100亿美元纾困。