钻石仍有降价压力 Diamond miners face more price cuts in

Diamond miners are expected to have to offer more price cuts in 2016 to help the industry clear a backlog of stock and revive sales, according to sector experts.

业内专家表示，预计钻石矿商将在2016年进一步降价，以帮助行业消化积压的库存并提振销售。

The likely need for lower prices and possible supply cuts will put further strain on the balance sheets of some miners including Anglo American, which owns De Beers, the largest supplier of rough diamonds by value.

可能需要降价加上可能的供应削减，将会让英美资源集团(Anglo American)等一些矿商的资产负债表进一步承压。按价值计算为全球最大原钻供应商的戴比尔斯(De Beers)隶属英美资源集团旗下。

Having been a rare bright spot for miners as commodity markets softened in 2014, the diamond industry came under severe pressure in 2015 as weakening consumer demand led to a big build-up of stocks and led to sharp falls in rough diamond purchases and prices.

在2014年大宗商品市场陷入低迷之际，钻石行业成了采矿行业中罕见的亮点，但到了2015年，随着消费者需求疲弱导致库存激增、原钻购买量和价格大幅下跌，钻石行业承受了巨大的压力。

Prices for rough diamonds — the mined stones that are then turned into polished gems — fell 18 per cent in the year to November, Moody’s, the rating agency, said this month.

评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)12月时表示，在截止2015年11月的一年里，原钻价格下跌18%。原钻开采出来后经过抛光打磨成为宝石。

But while prices are down 28 per cent from a peak in 2014, the drop “may be insufficient to revive demand and we think producers may have to cut them further as these challenges continue into 2016”, Moody’s said.

但是尽管原钻价格与2014年的峰值相比下跌28%，但这种下跌可能“还不足以恢复需求，我们认为，随着各种挑战将持续至2016年，生产商可能不得不进一步降价”，穆迪表示。

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets also said this month that miners faced “a challenging outlook” with further weakening of prices in 2016.

加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的分析师年底前也表示，矿商面临“挑战性的前景”，2016年价格将会进一步下降。

“The debate will be around the extent of the cuts needed … our view is that it could be in the region of 15 per cent,” said RBC.

“人们将围绕有必要降价多少展开争论……我们认为，幅度可能在15%左右。”

The diamond trade is dominated by Alrosa of Russia, the largest miner by volume, and De Beers, which between them have more than half of the market for rough diamonds. Rio Tinto has about 11 per cent of the market by volume.

钻石贸易由俄罗斯的埃罗莎(Alrosa)和戴比尔斯主导。按销量计算，埃罗莎是全球最大的钻石矿商，这两家公司总共占有原钻逾一半的市场份额。按销量计算，力拓(Rio Tinto)大约占有11%的市场份额。

Among the large diversified mining groups, Anglo is the most dependent on diamonds. De Beers was the largest contributor to Anglo’s earnings in the first six months of 2015, so weakness in diamonds is a problem for Mark Cutifani, Anglo’s chief executive, who is trying to push through a big restructuring that would more than halve Anglo’s size.

在业务多元化的大型矿业集团当中，英美资源集团对钻石的依赖度最大。在英美资源集团2015年上半年的收入当中，戴比尔斯的贡献最大，因此钻石市场低迷给该集团首席执行官马克愠艓芬尼(Mark Cutifani)带来难题，后者正努力推进大规模重组工作，准备将集团规模削减一半以上。

However, the weakness in diamond prices is being mitigated for some miners by big currency depreciations, particularly in Russia and South Africa, which have helped to bring down production costs.

然而，对某些矿商来说，钻石价格下跌的影响被货币大幅贬值缓解，尤其是在俄罗斯和南非——货币贬值有助于降低生产成本。

De Beers said this month that it had pushed down rough prices by 15 per cent during 2015 and cut output by about 12 per cent to try to support prices.

戴比尔斯12月表示，2015年已将原钻价格降低15%，并减产约12%以支持价格。

Philippe Mellier, De Beers’ chief executive, said the main selling season for diamonds — which extends from Thanksgiving in November in the US, through Christmas, and into Chinese new year — would be “very important”.

戴比尔斯首席执行官菲利普蔠利耶(Philippe Mellier)表示，钻石的销售旺季从美国11月的感恩节、圣诞节一直持续至中国的春节，这段时间将“非常重要”。

“Depending on the size of the sales at the end of this year we can say that we are very hopeful that we will go through this crisis sometime in 2016,” Mr Mellier said.

梅利耶表示：“基于2015年年底的销售规模，我们可以说，我们对在2016年某个时候度过此次危机抱很大希望。”

De Beers is due to hold its next sale of rough diamonds — an event known as a “sight” — in mid-January. The miner has promised a new level of transparency, saying it will release sales data from its 10 annual sights.

戴比尔斯将在1月中旬举行下一场被称为“看货会”(sight)的原钻销售活动。该矿商承诺将透明度提高至新的水平，表示将发布第十届年度看货会成交数据。