如何重塑全球一体化 Global trade should be rebuilt from the bottom up

Since the end of the second world war, a broad consensus in support of global economic integration as a force for peace and prosperity has been a pillar of the international order. From global trade agreements to the EU project; from the Bretton Woods institutions to the removal of pervasive capital controls; from ex-panded foreign direct investment to increased flows of peoples across borders, the overall direction has been clear. Driven by domestic economic progress, by technologies such as containerised shipping and the internet that promote integration, and by legislative changes within and between nations, the world has grown smaller and more closely connected.

二战结束后，一个广泛共识成为了国际秩序的一个支柱——这个共识是，支持把全球经济一体化作为促进和平与繁荣的力量。从全球贸易协定到欧盟一体化计划，从布雷顿森林机构到消除原本普遍存在的资本管制，从外商直接投资(FDI)增加到人员跨境流动增多——总体方向是明确的。在国内经济发展、集装箱船运和互联网等促进一体化的技术、以及国家内部和国家之间立法改革的推动下，世界变得更小、更加紧密联系。

This has proved more successful than could reasonably have been hoped. We have not seen a war between leading powers. Global living standards have risen faster than at any point in history. And material progress has coincided with even more rapid progress in combating hunger, empowering women, promoting literacy and extending life. A world that will have more smartphones than adults within a few years is a world in which more is possible for more people than ever before.

这证明一体化的成功已超过了合理的期望。大国之间没有再发生过战争。世界各地人民生活水平的提升比历史上任何时候都要快。在物质发展的同时，人类在战胜饥饿、赋予妇女权力、提高识字率和延长寿命等方面甚至进步得更快。再过几年，智能手机数量将超过全球成年人数量。这个世界为更多的人提供了更多的可能，这是以往任何时候都不能比的。

Yet a revolt against global integration is under way in the west. The four leading candidates for president of the US — Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz — all oppose the principal free-trade initiative of this period: the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Proposals by Mr Trump, the Republican frontrunner, to wall off Mexico, abrogate trade agreements and persecute Muslims are far more popular than he is. The movement for a British exit from the EU commands substantial support. Under pressure from an influx of refugees, Europe’s commitment to open borders appears to be crumbling. In large part because of political constraints, the growth of the international financial institutions has not kept pace with the growth of the global economy.

然而，西方却出现了反对全球一体化的趋势。美国总统竞选中的四名主要参选人——希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)、伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)、唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)——都反对这段时期以来最主要的自由贸易倡议——《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)。共和党内最有可能成为候选人的特朗普提议用墙把墨西哥隔开、废除贸易协定和迫害穆斯林，这些点子比他本人要受欢迎得多。英国的脱欧运动得到了大力支持。在大量难民涌入的压力下，欧洲开放边界的承诺似乎就要化为泡影。主要由于政治因素的制约，国际金融机构的发展跟不上全球经济增长的步伐。

Certainly a substantial part of what is behind the resistance is lack of knowledge. No one thanks global trade for the fact that their pay cheque buys twice as much in clothes, toys and other goods as it otherwise would. Those who succeed as exporters tend to credit their own prowess, not international agreements. So there is certainly a case for our leaders and business communities to educate people about the benefits of global integration. But at this late date, with the trends moving the wrong way, it is hard to be optimistic about such efforts.

当然，反对一体化背后的一大因素是知识的匮乏。没有人因为他们的工资能买到的服装、玩具和其他商品多了一倍而感谢全球贸易。成功的出口商往往把原因归结为自己的能力，而不是国际协议。所以，我们的领导人和商界人士显然有理由教育民众理解全球一体化的好处。但是，当前时机已经太晚，趋势正朝着错误方向移动，这类努力能有什么效果不容乐观。

The core of the revolt against global integration, though, is not ignorance. It is a sense, not wholly unwarranted, that it is a project carried out by elites for elites with little consideration for the interests of ordinary people — who see the globalisation agenda as being set by big companies playing off one country against another. They read the revelations in the Panama Papers and conclude that globalisation offers a fortunate few the opportunities to avoid taxes and regulations that are not available to the rest. And they see the disintegration that accompanies global integration, as communities suffer when big employers lose to foreign competitors.

不过，导致反对一体化情绪的核心因素并不是无知，而是一种并非无端形成的观念：人们觉得，全球一体化是精英阶层推行的，也服务于精英阶层，基本没有考虑普通民众的利益。他们认为，全球化议程是大公司制定的，目的是挑起不同国家之间的争斗，以从中获利。他们读到了“巴拿马文件”被揭露的内容，认定全球化不过是为幸运的少数人提供逃避纳税和监管的机会，其他人则享受不到这种待遇。他们看到了伴随全球一体化而来的破坏，当国内大型雇主竞争不过外国对手时，就会造成社会后果。

What will happen next — and what should happen? Elites can continue pursuing and defending integration, hoping to win sufficient popular support — but, on the evidence of the US presidential campaign and the Brexit debate, this strategy may have run its course. This is likely to result in a hiatus in new global integration and efforts to preserve what is in place while relying on technology and growth in the developing world to drive further integration.

接下来会发生什么？应该会发生什么？精英们可能会继续追求和捍卫一体化，希望能争取足够多的民意支持——但是，从美国总统竞选和英国退欧辩论的情况来看，这种策略可能已经山穷水尽。这很可能导致新的全球一体化停下脚步，使得在维护既有成果的同时依靠科技和发展中国家的增长来继续推进一体化的努力发生中断。

The precedents, notably the period between the first and second world wars, are hardly encouraging about unmanaged globalisation succeeding with neither a strong underwriter of the system nor strong global institutions.

历史先例、特别是从一战到二战之间那段时期的经验，并不能促使人们认为，在全球经济体系没有强大的担保人、也没有强大的全球性机构的情况下，“无管理”的全球化能够获得成功。

Much more promising is this idea: the promotion of global integration can become a bottom-up rather than a top-down project. The emphasis can shift from promoting integration to managing its consequences.

这样的想法会更有希望：推进全球一体化可以“自下而上”、而不是“自上而下”地进行。重点可以从推进一体化，转向管理其后果。

This would mean a shift from international trade agreements to international harmonisation agreements, where issues such as labour rights and environmental protection would take precedence over issues related to empowering foreign producers. It would also mean devoting as much political capital to the trillions that escape tax or evade regulation through cross-border capital flows as we now devote to trade agreements. And it would mean an emphasis on the challenges of middle-class parents everywhere who doubt, but still hope desperately, that their kids can have better lives than they did.

这意味着把注意力从国际贸易协定，转向国际和谐协议(harmonisation agreements)，在后一种协议中，劳工权利、环境保护等问题的重要性要超过与授权给国外生产商相关的问题。这也意味着，对于借助跨境资本流动来逃避纳税或绕过监管的巨量资金，我们要投入足够多的政治资本来应对，不能亚于我们目前投向贸易协定的政治资本。这将意味着，要把重点放在世界各地中产阶级父母所面对的挑战上，他们怀疑——但仍非常希望——他们的孩子可以过上比他们更好的生活。