理财产品威胁中国金融体系 缺乏监管不透明

SHANGHAI — The deal could be hard to resist.

上海——这也许是一桩令人难以拒绝的买卖。

A Shanghai investment firm is offering a fat return of up to 10 percent a year, handily beating both the local stock market and the paltry payouts from bank accounts. It requires a minimum deposit of about $15, making it accessible to just about anyone. Investors can pull out in as little as seven days. Best of all, the money is guaranteed.

上海一家投资公司在提供每年最高可达10%的丰厚回报，远远高于当地股票市场的收益或银行账户微不足道的利息。最低只需要存入约100元现金，这让几乎任何人都能参与投资。投资者最短七天后就可撤资。最重要的是，这个投资是有保障的。

There is just one catch: Investors know surprisingly little about what they are buying.

只是有一个诡异之处：投资者们对他们所购产品的了解惊人得少。

The firm, State Gold Treasure, said the money would be plowed into a real estate company building a luxury serviced-apartment complex here in Shanghai. But it will not release details, including the complex’s address.

这家名叫“国金宝”(State Gold Treasure)的公司说，钱将投给在上海建设一个豪华服务式公寓群的房地产公司。但国金宝没有给出更多的细节，比如该公寓群的地址。

The offering is just one of a spate of barely regulated, highly opaque investments that are posing a growing threat to the Chinese financial system. As the country’s economy slows, experts increasingly worry that many of the investment funds could fail — and the government may not know how to handle the shock to its financial system.

这家公司的产品只是一批几乎无监管且高度不透明的投资产品之一，这些投资产品正在给中国金融体系带来日益严重的威胁。随着中国的经济增长放缓，专家们越来越多地担心，许多这类投资基金可能会失败，而政府可能不知道如何应对其金融体系所面临的冲击。

Over the last five years, Chinese investors have plowed at least $2.8 trillion into buying such funds from banks alone. After quintupling since 2011, these investments, known as wealth management products, now total an amount roughly equal to more than one-third of the country’s annual economic output. Their growth has increased as China’s economy has slowed.

在过去的五年中，中国的投资者仅从银行购买的这类投资产品就已至少达到2.8万亿美元。这些被称为理财产品的投资自2011年以来已经翻了五番，目前的累计金额大致相当于中国年度经济总产值的三分之一以上。随着中国经济增长的放缓，理财产品的增长率反而在增加。

That is just the funds distributed by banks. Reliable data on wealth management products sold by other types of firms, like State Gold Treasure, is hard to come by.

这仅仅是银行发行的理财产品。很难得到像国金宝这样的其他类型企业销售的理财产品的可靠数据。

The problem for China is that a big chunk of the money is going into troubled industries like construction and real estate. Further slowdowns in those areas could result in major blowups.

中国的问题是，这些钱中有很大一部分正在流入面临困难的行业，比如建筑和房地产业。这些行业的进一步放缓可能会导致危机的爆发。

Banks also increasingly use the funds to raise money, instead of more stable deposits. The extra investment cash allows banks to make loans at a much faster clip than their deposits alone would allow. But if investors suddenly demanded their money back, banks could be in a financial bind.

银行也越来越多地用这些产品来筹集资金，而不是用更稳定的存款。银行可以用投资产品带来的额外现金以更快的速度发放贷款，比仅靠银行存款所允许的要快。但是，如果投资者突然要求撤资的话，银行可能会陷入金融困境。

The Chinese government so far has stepped in to stop big meltdowns of wealth management products, to avert ripple effects and forestall investor anger. But not all investors have been spared.

中国政府迄今已几次插手阻止理财产品的大崩溃，避免连锁反应，预先防止投资者愤怒的爆发。但是，并非所有投资者都这么幸运。

Li Wenyuan, a doctor in Beijing, says she invested almost $140,000 last year in a wealth management product linked to a steel company. After the company ran into difficulty, she was repaid less than $2,000. She had planned to use the entire original amount to send her son to a high school in Canada, where the air is cleaner and he would have a chance to improve his English.

北京的医生李文媛（音）说，她去年投资了约100万元人民币，购买了一个与一家钢铁公司有关的理财产品。该公司遇到困难后，退给她的钱还不到1.5万元。她曾打算把整笔原始投资用于送儿子到加拿大读高中，那里的空气更干净，儿子也会有机会提高自己的英语水平。

“It’s quite a big loss for my family,” she said. “We are still able to provide for ourselves. Still, it’s a lot of money and I doubt I will ever get it back. I am worried.”

“对我的家庭来说，这是一笔相当大的损失，”她说。“我们还能养活自己。但那是一大笔钱，我怀疑我永远也收不回那笔钱了。我很担心。”

Wealth management products are part of a huge but shadowy system of unregulated investments and underground banks that many Chinese people depend on for the loans that keep their businesses humming. Increasingly, the debate inside and outside China is focusing on what will happen if that system falls apart — and how quickly the government might be able to respond.

理财产品是不受监管的投资和地下钱庄形成的巨大影子系统的一部分，许多中国人靠影子银行获得维持其商业运行的贷款。中国境内外争论的焦点越来越多地是关于，如果这个影子系统崩毁的话，会发生什么，以及政府可能有能力做出反应的速度有多快。

“There is a risk building up in this regard, and on top of that, the tricky issue is that there are many triggers that could wake up this sleeping lion,” said David Daokui Li, a prominent Tsinghua University economist who is a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee. “Most likely, this issue will emerge as a crisis. The question is whether it is a small crisis or a big crisis.”

“这方面有一个风险积累，在此之上的一个棘手问题是，有很多唤醒这个睡狮的可能触发点，”清华大学的著名经济学家李稻葵说，他也是中国央行货币政策委员会的委员。“最有可能的是，这个问题将以危机的形式出现。目前的问题是，是一个小危机、还是一个大危机。”

China’s wealth management products are neither stocks nor bonds nor mutual funds. A typical wealth management product offers a fixed rate of return over a set period. Many Chinese investors treat them like bank savings deposits because many are sold by state-controlled banks that give the funds the appearance of government backing.

中国的理财产品既不是股票，也不是债券，也不是共同基金。典型的理财产品在核算期内为投资者提供某种固定的收益。许多中国投资者把理财产品当成银行储蓄存款，因为很多这类产品是由国家控制的银行出售的，让它们看似背后有政府支持。

But unlike bank deposits, they are uninsured. They are also typically structured so that the banks are not responsible if the investments fail. Among the biggest issuers of wealth management products are hundreds of banks and other financial institutions in poor, inland provinces. These banks are under intense pressure from provincial political bosses to keep lending and help sustain big employers like state-owned enterprises, at a time when the entire country’s economy is slowing.

但是，与银行存款不同，理财产品没有保险。理财产品通常的结构是，如果投资失败，银行并不承担任何责任。理财产品最大的发行者是贫穷的内陆省份的上百家银行和其他金融机构。来自省级政治领导的强大压力，迫使这些银行不停地发放贷款，以在整个国家的经济增长放缓时，帮助维持国有企业这样的大雇主。

To raise money for large-scale lending, banks have ramped up issuance. They sold 187,000 separate wealth management products by the end of last year, up 56 percent from a year earlier, according to official statistics.

为进行大规模借贷筹集资金，银行加大了理财产品的发行规模。据官方统计，截至去年底，银行出售的理财产品达18.7万种，比上年同期增长了56%。

Technology has made it easier for firms other than banks, like State Gold Treasure, to sell the products online and through smartphone apps. “In the past, you’d need to go to the bank to open an account or open an account at a certain fund company,” said He Zhirui, a finance company worker in Beijing who also invests in wealth management products. “Now, with the apps, you can simply upload your personal ID and purchase wealth management products right away online.”

技术让国金宝这样的非银行企业在网上、或通过智能手机应用程序来销售理财产品变得更容易。“在过去，你需要去银行或一家基金公司开个账户，”北京一家金融公司的工作人员何智睿（音）说，他也投资理财产品。“现在，你可以通过手机应用程序，只要上传一下自己的身份证，就能在网上购买理财产品了。”

State Gold Treasure, known as Guojinbao in Chinese, has its wood-paneled offices on the 71st floor of the gleaming Shanghai World Financial Center, which has a large statue of a Chinese god of wealth in the lobby. On its website, the company says investors are protected by a “seven-layer guarantee mechanism” and promises that all investments will be repaid in full.

用木材精装修的国金宝办公室，位于光彩夺目的上海环球金融中心的71层，上海环球金融中心的大厅里有一个大型的财神塑像。在国金宝的网站上，公司说投资者享有“7维安全保障”，还保证投资项目100%兑付。

But the fund does not say who is guaranteeing the funds. The company declined interview requests and to make officials available for comment during a visit to its offices.

但投资产品并没有说明谁为资金提供担保。公司拒绝接受采访，也没有让公司领导与前往其办公室的记者见面，就公司事宜发表评论。

The proliferation of wealth management products has drawn concern from regulators. In May, China’s banking commission warned that the business was plagued with problems, including unauthorized products.

理财产品的激增已经引起了监管部门的关注。今年5月，中国银监会曾警告说，理财产品存在很多问题，包括未经授权的产品。

Regulators are also considering new oversight rules. The goal, the commission said in response to questions, was to “facilitate a standards-based, healthy and sustainable development” and to “prevent risks.”

监管机构也正在考虑出台新的规则。银监会在回答有关问题时表示，新规则的目的是“促进规范、健康且可持续的发展”，同时要“防止风险”。

The shift in money away from bank deposits leaves China’s financial system on less solid footing. China withstood the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 and the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 in part because its financial system depended on highly stable household and corporate deposits parked mainly at four huge, government-controlled banks.

资金从银行储蓄中转移，令中国的金融系统根基相对不稳。中国之所以能经受住1997-1998年的亚洲金融危机和2008-2009年的全球金融危机，部分原因就在于它的金融系统依赖高度稳定的家庭和企业储蓄，而且这些资金主要集中于由政府控制的四大银行。

But smaller banks combined are now almost as large as the four main banks combined. Wealth management products account for up to a third of money raised at many midsize and smaller banks.

不过，现在规模更小的银行加在一起，资金规模几乎与四大银行相当。在许多中小银行，理财产品可占到所吸纳资金的三分之一。

Mr. Li, the central bank adviser, and other officials and economists say the Chinese government has the resources to cover big losses if wealth management products fail. They also say China’s increasingly tough enforcement of limits on sending money abroad will ensure that enough cash remains in the country in the event of a big failure.

央行顾问李稻葵及其他一些官员和经济学家称，中国政府有资源，可以弥补一旦理财产品投资失败带来的损失。他们还表示，中国限制资金外流的力度越来越大，就算出现更大的问题，也将能确保国内有足够的资金。

“With the Chinese system, it’s easier to deal with a liquidity issue — the money can’t go out,” said Chang Chun, the executive dean of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

“在中国的制度之下，更容易应对流动性问题——资金出不去，”上海交通大学高级金融学院执行院长张春说。

But some specialists in Chinese finance say that serious problems could appear faster than expected. They could also lurk in unexpected corners unnoticed by Chinese regulators, much less international investors.

不过，一些研究中国金融的专家表示，严重的问题可能会比预期来得更快。它们也可能潜伏在让人意想不到的角落，连中国监管机构都没有注意到，更不用说国际投资者。

“It’s going to happen,” said Christopher Balding, an associate professor of finance at the HSBC Business School at the Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, “when a firm goes bust that you’ve never heard of, or in a city you’ve never heard of.”

“会发生的，”北京大学深圳研究生院汇丰商学院金融副教授克里斯托弗•鲍尔丁(Christopher Balding)说，“会有你没听到过的公司破产，或者发生在你没听说过的城市。”