强美元下特朗普如何削减贸易逆差

Donald Trump railed against the effects of an overly strong dollar during the election campaign, warning about the damage it did to US companies’ competitiveness.

唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在竞选期间曾抱怨美元过分强势的影响，并警告这对美国企业竞争力造成损害。

Unfortunately for the president-elect, his own victory on November 8 has proven to be a catalyst for an even more expensive US currency — in part because of stimulus plans Mr Trump himself is pursuing.

不幸的是，他在11月8日的胜选已经成为美元进一步走强的催化剂——这部分缘于他打算实施的经济刺激计划。

America’s growing strong dollar conundrum poses a threat to Mr Trump’s vows to slash the trade deficit.

美国日益突出的强势美元难题对特朗普誓言大幅削减贸易逆差造成威胁。

Some leading analysts fear the elevated currency could prompt the incoming administration to lash out with protectionist measures as it attempts to prove it is fighting for US exporters’ interests, with China the likely focal point of early clashes.

一些知名分析人士担心，美元升值或将导致下届政府大量祭出保护主义措施，因为新政府将力图证明自己在为美国出口商争取利益，而中国极有可能成为早期冲突的焦点。

It looks like a slow motion train wreck to me, said David Dollar, a former US Treasury official in China who is now at Brookings, the think-tank.

美国财政部前驻华官员、现供职于智库布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的杜大伟(David Dollar)表示：我觉得这就像一场慢镜头的火车事故。

The Trump plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending were likely to help drive up both interest rates and the dollar and cause the US trade deficit to continue widening, he said.

他说，特朗普的减税及基础设施支出计划可能帮助推高利率和美元，使美国的贸易逆差继续扩大。

I’m not sure it’s rational to set reducing the US trade deficit as an objective.

我不确定把减少美国贸易逆差作为目标是否合理。

But if you do then this policy package does not seem to get us to a more balanced trade situation.

但是如果这样做，这种政策组合似乎不会给我们带来更平衡的贸易状况。

Since the election the trade-weighted dollar is up by about 3.3 per cent.

自此次大选开始以来，美元加权汇率上升了约3.3%。

With the incoming administration advocating policies that would boost the budget deficit, something that could prompt the US Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-lifting plans, analysts including William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, see further currency gains ahead.

由于即将上台的新政府提倡可能扩大预算赤字的政策，很可能促使美联储(Fed)加快其加息计划，包括彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员威廉.克莱恩(William Cline)在内的分析人士认为，未来美元汇率将进一步升高。

He estimates that as of mid-November the dollar was overvalued by around 11 per cent, and argues that fiscal stimulus and associated interest rate increases risk yet further increases in the dollar.

他估计，截至11月中旬，美元被高估了约11%，并称财政刺激伴随加息可能使美元进一步升值。

The US current account deficit is on track to widen from 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product this year to nearly 4 per cent by 2021.

美国经常账户赤字预计将从今年占国内生产总值(GDP)2.7%扩大到2021年的近4%。

Pledges to tackle the trade deficit were a central feature of Mr Trump’s campaign: a September report by advisers Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross, his nominee to be commerce secretary, claimed that eliminating the deficit would lead to a surge in growth — a notion heavily criticised by economists.

承诺解决贸易逆差是特朗普竞选纲领中的一个要点：他的两位顾问彼得.纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)和威尔伯.罗斯(Wilbur Ross)——他已提名后者当商务部长——在9月份的一份报告中指出，消除逆差将使增长大幅加快——这个观点遭到经济学家诟病。

Mr Trump warned of the damage from a high exchange rate: It sounds good to say ‘we have a strong dollar’.

特朗普警告汇率处于高位所造成的损失，他说：‘我们有强势美元’这句话听起来不错，

But that’s about where it stops, he said.

但问题在于它止步于何处。

Some officials fear that with his stimulus and the surging dollar Mr Trump could be creating swings in exchange rates that would eventually lead him to blame trading partners such as China or the EU, heightening the temptation to resort to protectionist policies.

有些官员担心在他的刺激政策和美元飙升作用下，特朗普可能造成汇率波动，这最终可能导致他怪罪中国或欧盟等贸易伙伴，使他更想采取保护主义政策。

The US can weather currency strength much better than many other major economies because of the relatively small role exports play in the economy.

美国对本币强势的耐受度远超其他许多主要经济体，因为出口在其经济中所占分量相对较小。

But that does not change the fact that a strong dollar would make Mr Trump’s stated goal of attracting manufacturing jobs back to the US more difficult and hurt US competitiveness.

但这改变不了如下事实，强势美元将令特朗普提出的吸引制造业工作回归美国的目标更难实现，且会损害美国的竞争力。

The main concern that many people should be focusing on is that you could have the beginning of a trade war with the surge in the dollar, said a senior European trade official.

欧洲一名资深贸易官员表示：许多人应关注的主要问题是，美元升值可能是贸易战争的开端。

Relations with China provide an early test.

对华关系将较早经受考验。

Having said he will brand the country a currency manipulator soon after taking office, Mr Trump this month accused China of hurting the US with a devaluation.

特朗普曾表示上任后将立即把中国归为货币操纵者，本月他指责中国用贬值来伤害美国。

Yet while the renminbi has depreciated against the dollar since earlier this year, the Chinese authorities have recently been intervening to prevent even steeper declines in the currency.

然而，虽然人民币兑美元汇率自今年年初以来持续贬值，但中国当局近来一直在干预阻止人民币更大幅贬值。

Mr Trump has a number of options if he wants to go after China.

特朗普如果想对付中国，他有很多选择。

The current law would call for intensified dialogue with China — or negotiations — should the administration find Beijing to be a currency manipulator.

美国政府若认为北京是货币操纵者，按照现行法律，其应加强与中国的对话，或者说谈判。

If that did not lead anywhere it would call for possible sanctions, including the exclusion of Chinese companies from government procurement contracts, something that would have negligible impact on China.

如果对话没有任何效果，就轮到采取可能的制裁措施，包括将中国企业排除在政府采购合同之外，这对中国的影响可以忽略不计。

Another response could be to declare a balance of payments emergency and invoke a 1974 law that would allow the president to unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15 per cent or other restrictions on Chinese goods for up to 150 days.

另一种对策是宣布美国国际收支进入紧急状态，并援引一项1974年的法律，该法规允许美国总统单方面对中国货物加征最高达15%的关税或施加其他限制，有效期最长150天。