特朗普“放过”人民币汇率可能引发国内反弹

Donald Trump’s stunning policy reversal on China’s currency this week shone a light on the administration’s contradictory views on foreign exchange, and risks exposing the president to a political backlash over abandoned campaign promises, analysts say.

分析人士表示，本周唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)对待中国货币的政策发生惊人逆转，揭示了美国政府对于外汇问题的矛盾看法，并可能导致这位总统因背弃竞选承诺而遭到政治反弹。

The president on Thursday backed away from his signature vow to brand China a currency manipulator, executing a U-turn from one of his most attention-grabbing campaign pledges.

周四，特朗普背弃了要把中国列为汇率操纵国的标志性誓言，在他最受关注的竞选承诺之一上，态度发生了180度的转弯。

It was one of a number of volte-faces this week, including a declaration that Nato is no longer “obsolete” and warmer words for Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair, that appeared to leave open the option of reappointing her next year.

这只是本周的一系列大转弯之一，包括一项说北约不再“过时”的声明，以及对美联储主席珍妮特?尤伦(Janet Yellen)的态度更加热情——这似乎让她明年再次获得任命变得可能。

By ditching the China pledge, Mr Trump helped ease bilateral tensions with Beijing, but also invited accusations that the president is going soft on his vows to clamp down on perceived unfair trade practices.

特朗普放弃把中国列为汇率操纵国的承诺，帮助缓解了美中双边紧张关系，但也招致了指责：这位总统将软化打击被视为不公正贸易的做法的承诺。

China has hailed the decision, saying it would promote “more balanced growth” in bilateral trade. “We do not intend to spur export growth through competitive depreciation, and the renminbi has no basis for continuous depreciation,” foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said on Thursday.

中国对这一决定表示欢迎，称这将推动两国经贸关系“更加平衡发展”。中国外交部发言人卢康周四表示：“中方无意通过货币竞争性贬值刺激出口，人民币不存在持续贬值的基础。”

As recently as February, Mr Trump labelled Beijing a “grand champion” of currency manipulation and promised tough action, while his administration has urged the International Monetary Fund to take a tougher line with Beijing over currency.

2月，特朗普曾把中国称为汇率操纵的“总冠军”，并承诺采取强硬行动，美国政府则敦促国际货币基金组织(IMF)在汇率方面对中国采取更强硬立场。

The China move opened the door to some Democrats, who had already begun to see Mr Trump’s softening on Beijing as an opportunity to reclaim the anti-trade message that was so crucial to his victory in November in industrial states such as Ohio.

对待中国的这一举动为一些民主党人提供了机会。他们已开始把特朗普软化对中国态度视为一个机会，来恢复自身作为反贸易派代表的形象。去年11月，反贸易形象对于特朗普在俄亥俄州等工业州获胜起到了非常关键的作用。

Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the Senate, this week said that the opposition party was assembling a trade package designed to get tough on China in order to force the president’s hand.

参议院民主党领袖查克?舒默(Chuck Schumer)本周表示，民主党正在起草一份旨在对中国采取强硬手段的贸易一揽子计划，以迫使特朗普展开行动。

Specialists in international economics welcomed the decision, saying that it recognised the reality in foreign exchange markets, given that Beijing has been intervening to hold up the value of the currency, not to drive it down.

国际经济领域的专家对特朗普的决定表示欢迎。它们称，该决定承认了外汇市场的现实，因为北京方面一直在通过干预支撑、而不是压低人民币汇率。

The move leaves the door open to tough language in a forthcoming Treasury report on foreign exchange practices around the world, while defusing some of the tensions that have surrounded the China-US relationship.

尽管美国财政部在即将发布的有关世界各国外汇做法的报告中仍可能使用强硬寓言，但特朗普的这一行动缓解了中美关系的紧张。

However, in the same interview with the Wall Street Journal in which he backed away from calling China a currency manipulator, Mr Trump renewed his complaints about the high value of the dollar, in words that will trigger concern in some overseas capitals.

不过，在声称不再把中国称为汇率操纵国的同一次《华尔街日报》(WSJ)采访中，特朗普再次对美元价值过高提出了抱怨，这些话将引起海外一些国家的关注。

His declaration that the US currency was “getting too strong” clashed with recent messages from his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, who has stuck more closely to the traditional US rhetoric in favour of a strong dollar.

他的关于美国货币“变得太强”的说法与他手下财长史蒂文?姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)不久前的表态发生了冲突。姆努钦更贴近支持强势美元的传统美国表态。

If Mr Trump persists with his willingness to verbally intervene about the high dollar, he will complicate relations with foreign partners over the longer run, analysts said.

分析师说，如果特朗普坚持在口头上对美元坚挺进行干预，那么从长期看，他将给美国与外国合作伙伴之间的关系增添变数。