石油供应充足的时代或成泡影

The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing.

在国际能源署(IEA)今年发布的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中，最令人瞩目的信息也最令人不安。

Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance.

过去10年里，油气行业上游业务投资暴增，但新增资本支出带来的新增全球石油供应量不断缩小。尽管情况不尽如人意，这还是靠创纪录的高油价支撑才得以实现的。对于眼下那些鼓吹全球石油充足新时代已经到来的人而言，这应是当头一棒。

According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9m b/d over the 75.2m b/d produced in 2000.

根据2013年《世界能源展望》，2012年，全球石油总供应量为每日8710万桶，这个数字较2000年的7520万桶增加了1190万桶。

However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs).

然而，在新增部分中，常规原油只占不到三分之一，另外逾三分之二要么是IEA所说的非常规原油（轻致密油(light-tight oil)、油砂和深水及超深水石油(deep/ultra-deepwater oil)），要么是天然气凝析液(NGL)。

This distinction matters because unconventional crude has a higher cost than conventional crude, while NGLs have a lower energy density.

区分新增部分的不同来源很重要，因为非常规原油的成本高于常规原油，而天然气凝析液的能量密度低于常规原油。

The IEA’s long-run cost curve has conventional crude in a range of $10-$70 a barrel, whereas for unconventional crude the ranges are higher: $50-$90 a barrel for oil sands, $50-$100 for light-tight oil, and $70-$90 for ultra-deep water. Meanwhile, in terms of energy content, a barrel of crude oil is worth 1.4 barrels of NGLs.

根据IEA的长期成本曲线，常规原油的成本区间为每桶10美元至70美元，而非常规原油的成本区间位于较高水平：油砂的每桶成本为50美元至90美元，轻致密油为50美元至100美元，超深水石油为70美元至90美元。与此同时，1桶原油所含能量相当于1.4桶天然气凝析液。

Threefold rise

资本支出12年扩大逾两倍

The much higher cost of developing unconventional crude resources and the lower energy density of NGLs explain why, as these sources have increased their share of supply, the industry’s upstream capex has grown. But the sheer scale of the increase is staggering: upstream outlays have risen more than threefold in real terms over the past 12 years, reaching nearly $700bn in 2012 compared with only $250bn in 2000 (both figures in constant 2012 dollars).

由于开发非传统原油资源的成本比传统原油高得多，而天然气凝析液能量密度比传统原油低，因此随着这些来源在原油供应中比例上升，该行业的上游资本支出一直在增加，并且增幅相当惊人：过去12年，上游业务实际资本支出扩大逾两倍，2012年达到近7000亿美元，而2000年这个数字仅为2500亿美元（这些数据均以2012年定值美元计算）。

Coinciding with the rise in US tight-oil production, most of this increase in upstream capex has occurred since 2005, as investments have effectively doubled from $350bn in that year to nearly $700bn in 2012 (again in 2012 dollars).

与美国致密油产量增加的时间相吻合，新增上游业务资本支出大部分发生在2005年以后，实际上，投资从2005年到2012年翻了一番，从3500亿美元增至近7000亿美元（同样以2012年定值美元计算）。

All of which means the 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) by only 14 per cent. The most straightforward interpretation of this data is that the economics of oil have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005), with the industry investing at exponentially higher rates for increasingly small incremental yields of energy.

所有这些都意味着，如2013年《世界能源展望》所示，自2000年以来，石油行业上游业务的资本支出扩大了近180%，但全球石油供应（按能源含量调整后）仅增加了14%。对这一数据的最直接解读是，自2000年（特别是自2005年）以来，石油的经济性已完全偏离历史正常水平，行业投资呈指数增长，而创造的能源产出增量却越来越少。

The industry has been able and willing to finance such a dramatic increase in its capital investment since 2000 owing to the similarly dramatic increase in prices. BP data show that the average price of Brent crude in real terms increased from $38 a barrel in 2000 to $112 in 2012 (in constant 2011 dollars), which represents a 195 per cent increase, slightly greater in fact than the increase in industry capex over the same period.

自2000年以来，石油行业之所以一直能够而且愿意为资本支出的飙升买单，是因为油价同样出现飙升。英国石油(BP)数据显示，布伦特(Brent)原油的每桶实际均价已从2000年的38美元升至2012年的112美元（以2011年定值美元计算），涨幅高达195%，实际上略高于同期石油行业资本支出的增速。

However, looking only at the period since 2005, capital outlays have risen faster than prices (90 per cent and 75 per cent respectively), while in the past two years capex has risen by a further 20 per cent (the IEA estimates 2013 upstream capex at $710bn versus $590bn in 2011), while Brent prices have actually averaged about $5 a barrel less this year than in 2011.

然而，如果只考察2005年至2012年这段时期，资本支出增速是高于油价涨幅的（分别为90%和75%）。此外，在过去两年里，资本支出进一步扩大20%（IEA估计，2013年上游业务资本支出为7100亿美元，而2011年这一数字为5900亿美元），而布伦特原油今年的每桶均价实际上比2011年还要低5美元左右。

Iran not a game changer

伊朗不会扭转乾坤

Moreover, this vast increase in capex has occurred during a prolonged period of record-low interest rates. Once interest rates start rising again, this will put further pressure on the industry’s ability to make the massive capital outlays required to keep supply growing.

另外，资本支出的大幅增加出现在利率处于创纪录低位的一段超长时期内。一旦利率开始再次上升，就会进一步压缩石油行业大规模资本支出的能力，而这种能力是石油行业保持供应不断增加所必需的。

Of course, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved with Iran over the weekend could provide some short-term relief to the market, as Iran’s exports could ultimately increase by up to 1.5m b/d if and when western sanctions are fully lifted. But this would not change the dynamics of the industry’s capex treadmill in any fundamental sense.

当然，不久前西方对伊朗的外交突破可能会让市场暂时松一口气，因为如果西方完全解除制裁，届时伊朗石油日出口量可能最终会增加150万桶之多。但这不会从根本上改变石油行业的资本支出态势。

The IEA estimates that global production of conventional crude oil from all currently producing fields will decline by 41m b/d by 2035 (an average of 1.9m b/d per year), so Iran’s potential increase of 1.5m b/d would compensate for just 10 months of natural decline in global conventional-crude output.

IEA估计，到2035年，目前全球所有产油区的常规原油总日产量将减少4100万桶（平均每年减少190万桶），因此，伊朗可能增加的150万桶日出口量仅够弥补全球常规原油日产量头10个月的自然下滑。

In short, behind the hubbub of market hype about a new age of oil abundance, the toil for oil is in fact more arduous and back-breaking than ever. This should worry everybody, because with the evidence suggesting that consumers are reluctant to pay much above $110 a barrel, it is an open question what happens next to the industry’s investment plans and hence, over time, to the supply of oil.

简而言之，在市场大肆鼓吹石油充足新时代到来之际，生产石油事实上已变得比以往任何时候都更为艰难。所有人都应为此感到担忧，因为有证据表明，消费者不愿为每桶超过110美元的油价买单，因此，石油行业投资的计划将何去何从，以及从长远来看对石油供应会产生怎样的影响，眼下都还是未知数。