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MH370搜救遭遇信息共享屏障

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MH370搜救遭遇信息共享屏障

The hunt for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 now depends on the willingness of governments and the military across Asia to hand over potentially sensitive radar and satellite data.

对马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines)失联班机MH370的搜索行动,下一步将主要取决于亚洲各国政府和军方是否愿意交出可能较为敏感的雷达和卫星数据。

Satellite data provided by London-based company Inmarsat have been crucial, but not enough, in the task of pinpointing the plane.

位于伦敦的国际海事卫星组织(Inmarsat)提供的卫星数据非常关键,但还不足以准确定位失联航班。

The Boeing airliner’s last communication was with an Inmarsat satellite at 8.11am local time on March 8, more than seven hours after it took off from Kuala Lumpur on a flight to Beijing with 239 people on board. Without other data, investigators are unable to plot where it went next.

这架由波音公司(Boeing)生产的客机在当地时间3月8日上午8点11分与国际海事卫星组织的一颗卫星取得了联络,这是这架客机与外界的最后一次通讯,此时距离它从吉隆坡起飞已经过去了7个多小时。该班机本应飞往北京,机上共有乘客239人。在缺乏其他数据的情况下,调查人员无法判断班机下一步去往何方。

But with scant history of International co-operation on intelligence sharing – and in some cases outright hostility – there are reasons to doubt whether Malaysia will get the data it needs as it leads a 26-country search for the aircraft 11 days after it disappeared.

但考虑到在情报共享方面缺乏国际合作的先例——在某些情况下各国之间的态度甚至彻底敌对——马来西亚很可能得不到其所需要的数据。该国领导了一项有26个国家参与的搜索行动,目前距离航班失踪已经过去了11天。

The search involves two corridors stretching from Kazakhstan and Pakistan in the north, across India and to southeast Asia and Australia in the south.

搜索行动覆盖了两条走廊地带,北部一线从哈萨克斯坦延伸到巴基斯坦,南部一线从印度穿过东南亚直至澳大利亚。

“If we are talking about a multilateral effort that relies on sharing of intelligence, I think we are in uncharted waters. Information and intelligence sharing is always a very sensitive issue,” said Ian Storey, senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

新加坡东南亚研究所(Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)高级研究员伊恩•斯托里(Ian Storey)表示:“如果我们讨论的是依赖于情报共享的多国搜索行动,那么我认为我们目前处于一片无人探查过的未知领域。信息和情报共享永远是一个非常敏感的问题。”

The search has now widened from an initial stretch of the South China Sea to a vast area of ocean measuring more than 2m sq nautical miles and land roughly equal to two-thirds of the land mass of the US.

搜索范围已从最初的南中国海水域扩展至面积超过200万平方海里的广阔海域,以及约等同于美国陆地面积三分之二的陆地区域。

Malaysia has asked countries for radar data, as well as satellite data and analysis.

马来西亚请求各国提供雷达数据、卫星数据以及情报分析。

The hope is that this, together with the Inmarsat information, will allow investigators to plot the airliner’s last trajectory – although Malaysia Airlines has confirmed it had only 30 minutes of fuel left when last in contact with the Inmarsat satellite, over the northern Strait of Malacca.

调查人员希望借助这些数据以及由国际海事卫星组织提供的信息,推测出失联班机最后的飞行轨迹,虽然马航已经证实,失联班机在最后一次与国际海事卫星组织的卫星联系时——当时班机位于马六甲海峡北部上空——燃料存量仅够其继续飞行30分钟。

In some cases, countries will be asked if their military have radar data that could help. But with information sharing between military authorities generally taking place only bilaterally, analysts say some may hold back key data.

在某些情况下,各国可能会被问到其军方是否拥有对搜索行动有帮助的雷达数据。但鉴于军方信息通常仅会在两国之间共享,分析师们认为一些国家可能会在关键数据上有所隐瞒。

“Generally, military intelligence sharing among southeast Asian states has been minimal – the prevailing strategic uncertainties coupled with political distrust, resource constraints and varying technological capabilities have precluded military transparency,” said Michael Raska of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院(S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies)的迈克尔•拉斯卡(Michael Raska)表示:“通常来说,东南亚国家之间的军事情报共享非常少见——除了战略上的不确定性这一主要原因以外,政治上的不信任、资源限制、以及参差不齐的技术水平也导致了军事情报的不透明。”

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