伊拉克危机对中国能源供应影响不大

China has found itself an unwitting participant in the drama unfolding in Iraq -- though its economy may be less vulnerable than its neighbors' to the crisis there.

中国已被动地成为了伊拉克当前危机的参与者，不过与一些亚洲邻国相比，中国经济受伊拉克危机的影响可能相对较小。

As the Obama administration works to build support for action against an insurgency by militant Sunni Islamists , China has said it will move some of its 10,000 citizens in Iraq away from areas it considers dangerous.

在奥巴马(Obama)政府为伊拉克打击逊尼派穆斯林武装分子的行动提供支持之际，中国政府表示将帮助部分处于安全形势相对严峻地区的中资公司人员撤至安全区域。目前在伊拉克的中国公民有1万人左右。

China's investments in Iraqi oil production grew so dramatically in the aftermath of the U.S.-led 2003 invasion that politicians have quipped that China, not the U.S., won the war against former dictator Saddam Hussein.

在2003年由美国牵头的联合部队入侵伊拉克后，中国在伊拉克石油生产领域的投资大幅增长，以至于政客们讽刺称，打赢推翻伊拉克前独裁者萨达姆(Saddam Hussein)战争的是中国，而不是美国。

Chinese state-owned companies have invested $10 billion in Iraq, according to the American Enterprise Institute. China's imports of Iraqi crude have doubled since 2009, according to Chinese customs data.

根据美国企业研究会(American Enterprise Institute)的数据，中国国有企业在伊拉克的投资额达到100亿美元。中国海关的数据也显示，自2009年以来，中国从伊拉克进口的原油量已增长一倍。

But Iraqi oil still represents just a small percentage of China's oil imports, and a minuscule portion of its overall energy supply. The greater risk appears to be not from a disruption of supplies from Iraq but rather that events there push global oil prices higher, raising China's overall import bill and the cost of subsidizing domestic fuel.

但从伊拉克进口的石油占中国石油进口量的比例依然很小，在中国能源供应总量中的占比更小。伊拉克危机给中国带来的风险似乎并非来自伊拉克石油供应的中断，而是来自当地推高全球油价的事件，全球油价上涨会推高中国整体石油进口成本以及补贴国内成品油的成本。

Prices for Brent crude have climbed more than 5% this month to above $115 per barrel, their highest level since last September.

6月份以来，布伦特原油期货价格已累计上涨5%以上，至每桶115美元上方，创去年9月份以来的最高水平。

The risk posed by higher global oil prices is even higher for China's Asian neighbors -- especially Japan, India and Indonesia -- which are more reliant on imported crude from the Middle East.

全球油价上涨给中国在亚洲的邻国带来的风险更大，尤其是日本、印度和印尼，这些国家更加依赖从中东进口的原油。

China's investments include China National Petroleum Corp.'s $5.6 billion purchase of a stake in the vast Rumaila field in southern Iraq in 2009. That same year, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. gained control of fields in Iraq's northern Kurdish region with its $7.2 billion purchase of Swiss company Addax Petroleum.

中国在伊拉克的投资包括中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corporation.)在2009年斥资56亿美元收购的伊拉克南部鲁迈拉(Rumaila)油田的部分股权。另外，中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Co., SNP, 简称：中国石化)也在同一年斥资72亿美元收购了瑞士公司Addax Petroleum，从而取得了伊拉克北部库尔德地区部分油田的控制权。

According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 13% of Iraq's oil exports went to China in 2012.

美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的最新数据显示，2012年，出口至中国的石油占在伊拉克石油出口总量的13%。

But China's exposure to Iraq is still relatively small, and its investments there represent only about 2% of China's total global investment. Customs data show that imports of Iraqi crude still comprise just one-tenth of China's total oil imports, and less than 1% of the country's overall energy needs.

但中国对伊拉克的敞口仍相对较小，在伊拉克的投资仅占其全球总投资额的2%。海关数据显示，从伊拉克进口的原油仍仅占中国原油进口总量的十分之一，在中国能源总需求中的占比也不到1%。

That's because China remains heavily reliant on domestic, heavily polluting coal -- the very problem the investments in Iraq aimed to address. Coal accounted for more than two-thirds of China's overall energy mix as of 2011, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency, or IEA.

这是因为，中国仍严重依赖国内的高污染煤炭，而这正是伊拉克投资旨在解决的问题。根据国际能源署(International Energy Agency, 简称IEA)最新数据，截至2011年，煤炭在中国能源结构中所占比例超过三分之二。

Other Asian nations have much greater exposure to international oil markets. While China imports 14% of its energy, Japan imported more than 90% in 2011, according to the IEA, relying on Saudi Arabian crude for nearly two-fifths of its energy needs. Japan doesn't import much (if any) Iraqi oil, but if Iraq worries continue to push up global oil prices it would raise Japan's energy bill and further erode its current-account surplus.

其他亚洲国家对国际石油市场的敞口要大得多。根据IEA的数据，2011年中国能源进口比例为14%，而日本则超过90%，日本能源需求的五分之二都依赖从沙特进口的原油满足。日本并不从伊拉克大量进口原油（如果有进口的话），但如果伊拉克局势继续推高全球石油价格的话，日本的能源进口支出就会增加，该国经常项目盈余也会受到进一步侵蚀。

India is arguably even more vulnerable: It takes 19% of Iraq's crude exports, representing 3% of India's overall energy needs. Worse, higher oil prices stand to aggravate India's stubborn inflation and widen its current-account deficit and would raise the cost of fuel subsidies just as the government is trying to trim its budget deficit.

印度应该会更容易受到打击：印度吸纳伊拉克19%的原油出口，占印度总能源需求的3%。更糟糕的是，石油价格上涨会加剧印度居高不下的通货膨胀，扩大经常项目逆差，并将在政府试图缩减预算赤字之际提高燃油补贴的成本。

The most vulnerable nation in Asia, however, may be one that until 2008 was a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -- Indonesia. The archipelago became a net oil importer in 2006 thanks to dwindling domestic production and weak investment in new production; imported crude now accounts for roughly 9% of Indonesia's total energy use. Like India, Indonesia would likely see its current account deficit and subsidy costs widen with higher oil prices, and inflation spike.

但最容易受到打击的可能是直到2008年之前还是石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)成员国的印度尼西亚。由于国内石油产量减少以及新产能投资疲软，印尼已在2006年成为石油净进口国，目前该国原油进口量占其能源总使用量的约9%。和印度一样，印尼的经常项目逆差和补贴成本可能也将随着油价上涨而增加，通胀也会攀升。

Despite its large investments in Iraq, then, China may find that -- compared to its neighbors at least -- it's getting off easily.

所以说，尽管中国在伊拉克有大笔投资，但中国最终可能会发现，至少跟邻国相比，本国受到的冲击还不算太大。