虚报出口令中国贸易前景引发质疑

Inflated Chinese export data are back.

中国再度出现虚报出口数据现象。

The ruse of puffed-up export invoices to convert extra foreign currency into renminbi is on the rise again, casting doubt on recent strong export data.

虚报出口发票、以把更多外币兑换成人民币的手法再次盛行，令中国近来强劲的出口数据招致怀疑。

Chinese exports hit a high of $214bn in September, well ahead of forecasts. Growth of 15.3 per cent from a year earlier was also the swiftest pace in 20 months.

今年9月，中国出口额达到2140亿美元，远胜预期，同比增速达15.3%，也是20个月内最快的一次。

That looked like good news for an economy where fixed-asset investment, traditionally the biggest growth driver, is slowing on the back of a weak property market.

这对中国经济来说似乎是好消息。在房地产市场疲弱的背景下，传统上最强大的增长推动因素——固定资产投资已开始放缓。

But economists warn that true export demand may be weaker than meets the eye.

但经济学家们警告称，真实出口需求可能比人们眼中看到的更为疲弱。

The gap between Chinese exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong imports from China – theoretically two sides of the same coin and based on customs data from the two jurisdictions – rose sharply in September.

9月，中国内地对香港出口与香港从中国内地进口之间的差距大幅升高。在理论上，这两者是同一枚硬币的正反两面，是基于两地的海关数据得出的。

For analysts, that suggests Chinese exporters are again using phantom exports to Hong Kong as a means to skirt the country’s strict capital controls and bring in foreign money.

在分析师看来，这说明中国出口商又开始通过虚构对香港出口，来绕开该国严格的资本管制、把外国资金带入境内。

“The apparent re-emergence of over-invoicing strengthens our view that China’s September export data do not herald strong sustained actual export growth,” wrote Louis Kujis, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

“虚构出口发票做法明显再度增多，让我们更坚定地认识到，中国9月的出口数据并不预示该国实际出口会保持强劲增速，”苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)写道。

Inflated export invoices has long been an issue in China. The Chinese currency is freely convertible for trade purposes, but investment flows remain tightly controlled. The lure of higher interest rates, as well as a steadily rising currency, creates an incentive to circumvent these controls. Disguising hot money inflows as trade has long been the most common technique.

虚报出口发票是中国的一个老问题。中国货币仅在用于贸易时才可以自由兑换，但用作投资时仍受到严格管制。人民币利率更高且处于稳步升值通道，吸引一些人逃过这些管制，最常用的办法就是把热钱伪装成出口收入、带入中国境内。

Such activity died down earlier this year, as the central bank engineered a weakening of the Chinese currency and the foreign exchange regulator launched a crackdown on illicit flows

今年早些时候，中国央行策划了一次人民币贬值，外汇管理机构也发起了打击非法资金流的行动，使得这一做法逐渐减少。

But the renminbi has come storming back in recent months, hitting an eight-month high on Wednesday. The world-beating performance of the Shanghai equity market in recent months has provided an additional enticement.

但近几个月来，人民币汇率有所反弹，周三曾创下8个月高点。近几个月上海股市行情好过其它全球股市，也使人民币产生了额外的吸引力。

Economists say that this time companies seem to be using new methods to skirt capital controls. Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics notes that Chinese imports also appeared inflated in September, judging by the gap between Chinese and South Korean data on Chinese imports from South Korea.

经济学家表示，这一次，企业似乎开始用新办法绕开资本管制。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出，9月中国的进口额似乎也有虚报，从中韩两国各自公布的中国从韩国进口数据的差距中可以看出这一点。

“That both imports and exports surged in tandem suggests firms are ‘round-tripping’ – importing a good and then re-exporting it to a related party at a mark-up to bring money into the country,” Mr Evans-Pritchard wrote this week.

“中国进口与出口同时猛增，表明企业在使用‘往返套利’手法——即进口一种商品，然后标高价格、把它出口给一个关联方，由此把资金带入境内，”埃文斯-普里查德本周写道。

“We … don’t have a strong explanation for why firms are going to the trouble of importing from Korea rather than Hong Kong. Our best guess is that, as authorities have cracked down on fake invoicing, firms have had to become more creative in how they game the system.”

“我们……对于企业为何舍近求远地从韩国而不是香港进口，找不到有说服力的理由。我们最合理的猜测是，由于当局一直打击虚报出口发票，企业不得不在如何利用体制漏洞上变得更有想象力。”

Wang Tao of UBS estimates that after correcting for over-invoicing, trade growth in the third quarter was only 11 per cent, compared with 13 per cent growth shown in official Chinese data.

瑞银(UBS)的汪涛估计，对发票虚报部分调整之后，中国三季度的贸易增幅仅为11%，而不是官方数据中所显示的13%。

That suggests that much like consumption, Chinese exports are in decent shape but will not be enough to arrest China’s investment-led slowdown.

这表明，跟消费大体相似，中国出口虽然不错，但将不足以阻止中国投资导致的增长放缓趋势。