科学家警告 海洋生态破坏规模空前

A team of scientists, in a groundbreaking analysis of data from hundreds of sources, has concluded that humans are on the verge of committing unprecedented damage to the oceans and the animals living in them.

在对数百个来源的数据进行了开创性的分析之后，一个科学家团队得出结论：人类处在对海洋及海洋动物造成前所未有的大破坏的边缘。

“We may be sitting on a precipice of a major extinction event,” said Douglas J. McCauley, an ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a co-author of the new reSearch, which was published on Thursday in the journal Science.

“我们可能就坐在重大灭绝事件的悬崖上，”加州大学圣巴巴拉分校生态学家道格拉斯·J·麦考利(Douglas J. McCauley)说，他是《科学》杂志本周四发表的一项新研究的合著者。

But there is still time to avert catastrophe, Dr. McCauley and his colleagues also found. Compared with the continents, the oceans are mostly intact, still wild enough to bounce back to ecological health.

但我们仍有时间来避免灾难，麦考利博士和同事还发现。与陆地相比，海洋绝大部分依然保持完整，仍然有足够旺盛的生命力，可以恢复健康的生态。

“We’re lucky in many ways,” said Malin L. Pinsky, a marine biologist at Rutgers University and a co-author of the new report. “The impacts are accelerating, but they’re not so bad we can’t reverse them.”

“从很多方面来说，我们都很幸运，”该报告的合著者、罗格斯大学(Rutgers University)的海洋生物学家马林·L·平斯基(Malin L. Pinsky)说。“海洋受影响的速度正在加快，但状况没有糟糕到无法扭转的地步。”

Scientific assessments of the ocean’s health are dogged by uncertainty: It’s much harder for researchers to judge the well-being of a species living underwater, over thousands of miles, than to track the health of a species on land. And changes that scientists observe in particular ocean ecosystems may not reflect trends across the planet.

对海洋健康状况进行的科学评估存在着不确定性：与追踪陆上物种的健康状况相比，研究人员很难判断踪迹延伸万里的水下物种的状况。科学家们观察到的某一海洋生态系统的具体变化，可能无法反映地球的整体发展趋势。

Dr. Pinsky, Dr. McCauley and their colleagues sought a clearer picture of the oceans’ health by pulling together data from an enormous range of sources, from discoveries in the fossil record to statistics on modern container shipping, fish catches and seabed mining. While many of the findings already existed, they had never been juxtaposed in such a way.

平斯基博士、麦考利博士和同事们努力为海洋的健康状况绘制出了一幅更清晰的图像，他们对海量数据进行了汇总，从化石记录的发现，到现代集装箱航运、渔获量和海底采矿的统计数据，这些数据的来源多种多样。虽然很多研究结果已经存在，但之前从未以这样的方式进行过汇总分析。

A number of experts said the result is a remarkable synthesis, along with a nuanced and hopeful prognosis.

一些专家表示，综合分析得出了一个非凡的结论，以及一个微妙的、让人充满希望的预测。

“I see this as a call for action to close the gap between conservation on land and in the sea,” said Loren McClenachan of Colby College, who was not involved in the study.

“我认为这是一个呼吁，敦促大家行动起来，把海洋保护行动提升到陆地的水平，”科尔比学院(Colby College)洛伦·麦克拉里琴(Loren McClenachan)说，他没有参与这项研究。

There are clear signs already that humans are harming the oceans to a remarkable degree, the scientists found. Some ocean species are certainly overharvested, but even greater damage results from large-scale habitat loss, which is likely to accelerate as technology advances, the scientists reported.

科学家们发现，已经有明显的迹象表明，人类对海洋的损害程度非常巨大。一些海洋物种肯定遭到了过度捕捞，但更大的损害是物种栖息地的大规模丧失，这种情况可能会随着技术的进步而加速，科学家表示。

Coral reefs, for example, have declined by 40 percent worldwide, partly as a result of climate-change-driven warming.

例如，全球的珊瑚礁已经减少40%，部分原因是气候变化导致的温度升高。

Some fish are migrating to cooler waters already. Black sea bass, once most common off the coast of Virginia, have moved up to New Jersey. Less fortunate species may not be able to find new ranges. At the same time, carbon emissions are altering the chemistry of seawater, making it more acidic.

有些鱼类已经迁徙到了较冷的水域。曾经在弗吉尼亚州海岸十分常见的黑鲈鱼，如今已经北迁至新泽西。而没有那么幸运的物种，就未必能找到新的栖息地了。与此同时，碳排放正在改变海水的化学成分，让它变得更具酸性。

“If you cranked up the aquarium heater and dumped some acid in the water, your fish would not be very happy,” Dr. Pinsky said. “In effect, that’s what we’re doing to the oceans.”

“如果你把水族箱里的加热器开高一些，倒一些酸性物质到水里，你的鱼可能会出问题，”平斯基博士说。“实际上，这就是我们正在对海洋做的事情。”

Fragile ecosystems like mangroves are being replaced by fish farms, which are projected to provide most of the fish we consume within 20 years. Bottom trawlers scraping large nets across the sea floor have already affected 20 million square miles of ocean, turning parts of the continental shelf to rubble. Whales may no longer be widely hunted, the analysis noted, but they are now colliding in greater numbers with rising numbers of container ships.

像红树林这种脆弱的生态系统，正在被养殖场所取代，预计不到20年，我们消耗的大部分鱼类就将来自这些养殖场。底拖网渔船拖着横扫海底的大网，驶过了2000万平方英里的海域，把部分大陆架夷为平地。鲸可能不会再遭受广泛猎杀，但这份报告指出，随着集装箱船只的数量与日俱增，鲸与船只发生碰撞的事件也增多了。

Mining operations, too, are poised to transform the ocean. Contracts for seabed mining now encompass 460,000 square miles underwater, the researchers found, up from zero in 2000. Seabed mining has the potential to tear up unique ecosystems and introduce pollution into the deep sea.

采矿作业也会改变海洋。研究人员发现，目前的海底矿业合同覆盖了水下46万平方英里的地方，而2000年时这个数字为零。海底采矿可能会破坏独特的生态系统，并将污染带入深海。

The oceans are so vast that its ecosystems may seem impervious to change. But Dr. McClenachan warned that the fossil record shows that global disasters have wrecked the seas before. “Marine species are not immune to extinction on a large scale,” she said.

海洋如此浩瀚，这些变化看上去好似不会对它的生态系统造成冲击。但麦克拉里琴博士警告说，化石记录表明，之前曾经有全球灾害对海洋造成过破坏。“海洋物种也无法在大规模灭绝中幸免，”她说。

Until now, the seas largely have been spared the carnage visited on terrestrial species, the new analysis also found.

这项研究还发现，陆地上物种大量灭绝的状况，迄今基本上还没有在海洋中出现过。

The fossil record indicates that a number of large animal species became extinct as humans arrived on continents and islands. For example, the moa, a giant bird that once lived on New Zealand, was wiped out by arriving Polynesians in the 1300s, probably in just a century.

化石记录表明，随着人类到达大陆和岛屿，很多大型动物灭绝了。例如曾经生活在新西兰的恐鸟，14世纪波利尼西亚人到达那里后，这种巨鸟可能在短短的一个世纪内就灭绝了。

But it was only after 1800, with the Industrial Revolution, that extinctions on land really took off.

但直到1800年后，随着工业革命的发生，陆地物种的灭绝才真正加快了速度。

Humans began to alter the habitat that wildlife depended on, wiping out forests for timber, plowing under prairie for farmland, and laying down roads and railroads across continents.

在各个大陆上，人类开始改变野生动物赖以生存的栖息地，砍伐森林以获取木材，翻耕草原以种植作物，而且还修建了遍布各地的公路和铁路。

Species began going extinct at a much faster pace. Over the past five centuries, researchers have recorded 514 animal extinctions on land. But the authors of the new study found that documented extinctions are far rarer in the ocean.

物种开始以远超从前的步伐灭绝。在过去的五百年中，研究人员记录下了514种陆地动物的灭绝。但这项新研究的作者发现，海洋动物灭绝的文档记录则要罕见许多。

Before 1500, a few species of seabirds are known to have vanished. Since then, scientists have documented only 15 ocean extinctions, including animals such as the Caribbean monk seal and the Steller’s sea cow.

公元1500年之前，已知的灭绝海鸟只有区区几种。自那之后，科学家只记录下了15个海洋物种的灭绝，其中包括加勒比僧海豹和斯特拉海牛这样的动物。

While these figures are likely underestimates, Dr. McCauley said that the difference is nonetheless revealing.

虽然这些数字很可能遭到了低估，但麦考利博士说，这种差距仍然发人深省。

“Fundamentally, we’re a terrestrial predator,” he said. “It’s hard for an ape to drive something in the ocean extinct.”

“从根本上说，我们是陆地捕食者，”他说。“猿类很难导致海洋中的东西灭绝。”

Many marine species that have become extinct or are endangered depend on land — seabirds that nest on cliffs, for example, or sea turtles that lay eggs on beaches.

已经灭绝或者濒临灭绝海洋物种中，很多都对陆地有所依赖——例如在悬崖上筑巢的海鸟，或在海滩上产卵的海龟。

Still, there is time for humans to turn the tide, Dr. McCauley said, with effective programs limiting the exploitation of the oceans. The tiger may not be salvageable in the wild — but the tiger shark may well be.

人类仍然有时间扭转局面，麦考利博士说，这需要制定并执行有效的程序，来限制对海洋的开发利用。野生老虎可能已经无法挽救——但虎鲨还大有希望。

“There are a lot of tools we can use,” he said. “We better pick them up and use them seriously.”

“我们可以利用的工具有很多，”他说。“我们最好拿起这些工具，认认真真地把它们利用起来。”

Dr. McCauley and his colleagues argue that limiting the industrialization of the ocean to some regions could allow threatened species to recover in other ones. “I fervently believe that our best partner in saving the ocean is the ocean itself,” said Stephen R. Palumbi of Stanford University, a co-author of the new study.

麦考利博士和同事们认为，限制某些海域的开采利用，可能有助于其他地区濒危物种的恢复。“我坚定地相信，在拯救海洋的过程中，我们最好的合作伙伴就是海洋本身，”这项研究报告的合著者、斯坦福大学的斯蒂芬·R·帕鲁比(Stephen R. Palumbi)说。

The scientists also argued that these reserves had to be designed with climate change in mind, so that species escaping high temperatures or low pH would be able to find refuge.

科学家们还认为，在规划这些保护区的时候必须把气候变化考虑在内，以便让物种逃离高温或者较低PH值，找到避难所。

“It’s creating a hopscotch pattern up and down the coasts to help these species adapt,” Dr. Pinsky said.

“需要在沿岸一带规划出错落有致的保护区，来帮助各个物种适应环境，”平斯基博士说。

Ultimately, Dr. Palumbi warned, slowing extinctions in the oceans will mean cutting back on carbon emissions, not just adapting to them.

最终，帕鲁比博士警告说，要减缓海洋物种灭绝速度，就需要削减碳排放，而不仅仅是适应它们。

“If by the end of the century we’re not off the business-as-usual curve we are now, I honestly feel there’s not much hope for normal ecosystems in the ocean,” he said. “But in the meantime, we do have a chance to do what we can. We have a couple decades more than we thought we had, so let’s please not waste it.”

“如果到本世纪结束时，我们仍然没有脱离目前的事态发展曲线，老实说，我觉得要维持海洋生态系统的正常就没有太大希望了，”他说。“但与此同时，我们确实也有机会，可以尽其可能地来改变这种状况。和我们之前以为的相比，时间有了几十年的宽裕，所以千万不要把它们白白浪费了。”