11月中国外汇储备再度缩水 Decline in China forex reserves renews jitters

China’s foreign exchange reserves posted their third-largest Monthly decline on record last month, central bank data showed yesterday, renewing worries about capital outflows after reserves had appeared to stabilise.

昨日发布的央行数据显示，中国外汇储备上月出现有记录以来第三大单月降幅。这重燃了人们对于中国遭遇资本外流的担忧，此前中国外汇储备似乎企稳。

Forex reserves fell $87bn in November, near the record $94bn decline suffered in August — the same month that the central bank surprised global markets by allowing the renminbi to depreciate by 3 per cent in three days.

11月中国外汇储备下降８７２．２３亿美元，接近8月下降940亿美元的纪录——该月中国央行出乎全球市场意料地允许人民币在三天里贬值4.6%。

China’s reserves have fallen for nine of 11 months this year and stand at $3.43tn, as investors sell renminbi assets to protect themselves against depreciation and the central bank sells dollars from its reserves to curb renminbi weakness. Falling interest rates in China and expectations of an imminent rate rise by the US Federal Reserve have also fuelled outflows. Reserves rebounded mildly in October, suggesting outflows had diminished.

中国外汇储备在今年前11个月中的9个月下降，目前约为3.43万亿美元。投资者抛售人民币资产以保护自己免受贬值影响，而央行出售外汇储备中的美元以遏止人民币弱势。中国利率不断下降，而美联储(Federal Reserve)预计很快将开始加息，也助燃了资本外流。中国外汇储备曾在10月轻微反弹，似乎表明外流已趋于停止。

China’s forex reserves — the world’s largest — have long been seen as the ultimate guarantor of financial stability, since they can be used to hedge against capital flight or to bail out domestic financial institutions struggling with a rise in bad debts.

中国拥有世界上最大的外汇储备，它一直被视为金融稳定的最终保障，因为外储可以被用来对冲资本外流，或纾困艰难应对坏账增加的国内金融机构。

The unprecedented declines have raised worries that the reserves could quickly evaporate if capital outflows continue and the central bank continues to defend the exchange rate. Most analysts believe the central bank will be forced to curtail its intervention in order to prevent further depletion of its reserves.

中国外汇储备出现史无前例的下跌，已经引发市场担心：如果资本外流持续下去，而央行继续捍卫汇率，外储可能迅速蒸发。多数分析师相信，中国央行将被迫缩减干预力度，以免外汇储备进一步枯竭。

The People’s Bank of China has long intervened in foreign-exchange markets to hedge against excessive volatility. Since August, however, such intervention has expanded from the domestic spot market, which covers daily transactions, to include the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, as well as both onshore and offshore futures markets, traders say.

中国人民银行(PBoC)干预外汇市场由来已久，目的是防止过度波动。不过，交易员们表示，自今年8月以来，这种干预已从国内即期市场（覆盖日常交易）扩大至包括香港的离岸人民币市场，以及在岸和离岸期货市场。

Following the devaluation in mid-August, the renminbi rallied in September and October. Devaluation resumed in November, however, and the renminbi closed at its weakest level in three months at 6.4082 to the dollar yesterday. “Since October many countries around China have experienced some capital outflow, and China has had its share,” said Xie Yaxuan, an economist at China Merchants Securities in Shenzhen. “The strengthening dollar is bound to cause some repositioning into dollar assets.”

继8月中旬贬值后，人民币在9月和10月有所上涨，但在11月再度走低，昨日人民币汇率收跌至三个月最疲弱水平，为1美元兑6.4082元人民币。“中国周边很多国家自10月份起经历了一些资本外流，中国也未能幸免，”深圳招商证券(China Merchants Securities)经济学家谢亚轩表示。“美元走强势必在一定程度上引发转投美元资产的行为。”

Ms Xie estimates that around 40 per cent of the decline in November — about $35bn — is attributable to valuation effects related to the weakening of the euro and other currencies against the dollar in November, rather than outflows.

谢亚轩估计，11月中国外储下降的大约40%（350亿美元左右）可归因于欧元和其他货币相对于美元走弱的估值影响，而不是资本外流。

Additional reporting by Ma Nan

Ma Nan补充报道