印度成为全球钢铁业火车头
It is tough to find a bright spot in the global steel sector, as prices plunge and struggling Chinese producers flood world markets with their surplus stock. But if pressed, gloomy industry-watchers see at least some reason for optimism in Asia’s second-largest emerging market, India.
随着钢材价格暴跌、陷入困境的中国生产商将过剩库存大量投放到国际市场，人们很难在全球钢铁业中找到一个亮点。但如果认真思考一下，悲观的行业观察家至少可以从印度这个亚洲第二大新兴市场中看到一些乐观的理由。
“There is really only one location that has the long-term potential to pull the global steel market out of its current slump, and that is India,” says Edwin Basson, director-general of the World Steel Association, a trade group. “But, and this is the big question, while India has huge unfilled demand and a big economy, when will all this be felt?”
国际钢铁协会(World Steel Association)总干事埃德温巴松(Edwin Basson)表示：“真的只有一个地方具备让全球钢铁市场摆脱当前低迷的长期潜力，那就是印度。然而，尽管印度有巨大的未得到满足的需求，而且经济规模庞大，但什么时候人们才能感受到这一切？这是一个大问题。”
India is already the world’s fourth-largest steel producer and is expected to overtake the US for third place in the next year or two. And while its steel consumption is barely a tenth that of the world’s largest user, China, it is at least expanding. Growth will be 8 per cent next year, according to Fitch, the rating agency.
印度已经是全球第四大钢铁生产国，并有望在一两年内取代美国，成为全球第三大生产国。印度的钢铁消费量只有全球最大钢铁消费国中国的十分之一，但至少处于增长之中。评级机构惠誉(Fitch)估计明年印度钢铁消费量增长8%。
India is adding capacity too, led by its big three producers: Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and state-backed Steel Authority of India. Last month, Tata Steel inaugurated a huge new plant in the eastern state of Orissa, which eventually will nearly double its output.
印度也在增加产能，带头的是三大生产商：塔塔钢铁(Tata Steel)、京德勒西南钢铁公司(JSW Steel)，以及国有的印度钢铁管理局公司(Steel Authority of India)。上月，塔塔钢铁在印度东部奥里萨邦(Orissa)的一座大型工厂举行了开业典礼，该工厂最终将使其产量接近翻倍。
Tata Steel in many way exemplifies India’s unusual place in world steel markets. The company’s lossmaking European arm has been hammered by cheap imports and flat demand over recent years. It is now moving toward selling off part of its ailing UK division, having announced 1,200 job losses in October. The group’s Indian arm is much smaller, producing just a third of its output, but performs far better, last year contributing 80 per cent of group underlying profits.
塔塔钢铁在许多方面都体现了印度在世界钢铁市场上的独特位置。最近几年，该公司总是亏损的欧洲部门遭受廉价进口和需求平淡的冲击。塔塔钢铁现在正在采取措施，出售其经营不善的英国部门的部分业务，之前该部门在10月就已宣布裁员1200人。相形之下，该集团印度部门的规模要小得多，产量只占集团产量的三分之一，但业绩表现却好得多，去年为集团贡献了80%的基础利润。
Nevertheless, India’s steel producers are downbeat for two main reasons, the first being China. In common with their global counterparts, most have been hit badly as Chinese competitors send excess capacity abroad. Indian steel imports soared 72 per cent in the financial year to March 2015, and have risen further still this year.
然而，印度钢铁生产商却并不乐观，主要因为两个因素，第一个是中国。与全球其他地区的钢铁生产商一样，随着中国竞争对手向海外释放过剩产能，印度钢企普遍遭受沉重打击。在截止2015年3月的财年里，印度钢铁进口飙升72%，本财年又进一步上升。
Steelmakers are livid. Chinese exports have “caused havoc”, says billionaire tycoon Sajjan Jindal of JSW, India’s second-largest private sector steelmaker by revenue. Domestic steel appetite might be growing, he says, but local production is stagnant because imports mop up any increases in demand.
印度钢铁制造商感到愤懑。JSW的萨简金达尔(Sajjan Jindal)表示，中国出口“造成了严重破坏”。按收入计算，JSW是印度第二大民营钢铁制造商。金达尔说，国内钢铁需求或许是在增长，但由于进口完全吸收了增长的需求，国内产量停滞。
India’s government responded in August by increasing taxes and import duties on a range of steel products, curbing inflows somewhat. But Mr Jindal and his fellow industrialists have been pushing for more, and this month policymakers in New Delhi introduced a series of further minor anti-dumping duties.
印度政府在今年8月对此作出回应，提高了多种钢铁产品的税率和进口关税，一定程度上遏制了进口钢材的流入。但金达尔及其他实业家并未善罢干休，在他们推动下，新德里的政策制定者们本月进一步出台了一系列力度轻微的反倾销关税。
The second problem is poor finances. Indian steelmakers borrowed heavily to add capacity during the country’s mid-2000s boom years. Industry-wide net debt soared 10-fold over the last decade as a result, hitting roughly $50bn this year, according to Credit Suisse.
第二个问题是财务状况极为糟糕。在2005年前后印度蓬勃发展期间，印度钢铁制造商们大举借贷，以扩大产能。其结果是，据瑞信(Credit Suisse)表示，整个钢铁行业的净负债在过去十年飙升10倍，到今年约达500亿美元。
All that borrowing pushed capacity up by a third, with an extra 15m tonnes added during this financial year alone, according to Fitch analyst Muralidharan Ramakrishnan. But it also came amid a plunge in global iron ore prices, undercutting the cost advantage that Indian producers often enjoyed by mining cheap domestic ore, a key component in steelmaking, and hitting profitability.
惠誉分析师穆拉里达兰拉玛克里斯南(Muralidharan Ramakrishnan)表示，这些借贷使印度钢铁产能增长三分之一，仅在本财年就增加了1500万吨。但在产能飙升之际，全球铁矿石价格暴跌，削弱了印度生产商由于国内开采的铁矿石价格低廉而经常享有的成本优势，损害了它们的盈利能力。铁矿石是钢铁生产中的关键原材料。
Many Indian steel projects also ran into regulatory difficulties, leaving once fast-growing groups like Mumbai-based Essar Steel struggling to pay down debts. A host of smaller companies are effectively bankrupt. Bureaucratic problems hit foreign producers too, notably South Korea’s Posco, which has mothballed a $12bn facility in the country. ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel group by revenue, scrapped a big plant two years back.
印度国内的许多钢铁项目还遭遇了监管障碍，导致孟买的Essar Steel等一度发展极快的钢铁集团难以偿还债务。众多中小钢企实际上已经破产。外国生产商还受到官僚问题的冲击，尤其是韩国的浦项制铁(Posco)——该公司在印度一个投资120亿美元的项目已然搁置。按收入计算为全球最大钢铁集团的安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)两年前放弃在印度兴建一座大型工厂。
JSW’s Mr Jindal thinks a shakeout is needed. “There will be a correction,” he says, predicting that many minor groups will be swallowed up by larger ones. “These small steel producers will find it hard to operate; they are not environmentally friendly or cost competitive.”
JSW的金达尔认为，洗牌势在必行。他说：“将有一场调整。”他预计许多小钢企将被大集团兼并。“这些小型钢铁生产商将会发现很难维持运营；它们不够环保，或者成本缺乏竞争力。”
Others are more optimistic, pointing both to India’s low per capita steel use and an upturn in the economy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Growth rates are set to stay above 7 per cent over the next two years, boosting carmakers and steel-consuming sectors. Fiscal stimulus will help too, pumping money into new roads and railways.
其他人则较为乐观，原因是印度人均钢铁使用量较低，而且在总理纳伦德拉莫迪(Narendra Modi)的领导下，经济向好。预计今后两年印度增长率将维持在7%以上，这有利于汽车制造商和其他钢铁消耗行业的发展。印度还出台了财政刺激政策，大举投资建设新的公路和铁路，这也将有所帮助。
India is not going to be able to replace China as global steel’s locomotive any time soon, says Koushik Chatterjee, finance director of Tata Steel, but a mix of protection against unfair imports and fresh government spending can at least spark a new period of growth.
塔塔钢铁的财务总监库什科查特吉(Koushik Chatterjee)表示，印度不会很快取代中国成为全球钢铁业的“火车头”。但针对不公平进口而采取的防范措施和新增政府支出至少可以让印度钢铁业进入一个新的增长期。
“The biggest trend which can come is more public spending on infrastructure,” he says. “If we get that, the future will look much better.”
他说：“可能出现的最大趋势是加大对基础设施的公共支出。若果真如此，未来将会光明得多。”
