第四次工业革命 希望和危险
The Fourth Industrial Revolution By Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum, 6.99/ $9.99
《第四次工业革命》，克劳斯施瓦布(Klaus Schwab)，世界经济论坛(WEF)出版，6.99英镑/9.99美元
The World Economic Forum does a remarkable job of forging the conventional wisdom among the global elite. The trouble is that conventional wisdom is invariably wrong. So what are we to make of the theme of this week’s gathering in Davos: the arrival of the fourth industrial revolution? Peak Tech?
在塑造全球精英的主流观点方面，世界经济论坛做出了出色的工作。问题在于，主流观点往往是错的。那么，我们该如何理解本周在达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛的主题——第四次工业革命的到来呢？尖峰科技？
The book, written by Klaus Schwab, WEF’s founder and published just ahead of the organisation’s annual meeting atop a Swiss mountain, slaloms through the new technologies of artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, the blockchain, biotechnology and so on. The argument is that the confluence of these technologies amounts to the fourth industrial revolution of the book’s title.
本书由世界经济论坛创始人克劳斯施瓦布撰写，并在本届年会即将于瑞士山巅小镇达沃斯召开之际出版。该书纵览了人工智能、机器人技术、物联网、自动驾驶汽车、3D打印、区块链(blockchain)、生物技术等新科技，主张这些技术汇集在一起，构成了本书标题中所说的“第四次工业革命”。
In case you are wondering, Schwab defines the first three as: the transport and mechanical production revolution of the late 18th century; the mass production revolution of the late 19th century, and the computer revolution of the 1960s.
为防有读者不清楚，施瓦布罗列了前三次工业革命：18世纪末的运输和机械化生产革命、19世纪末的大规模生产革命，以及上世纪60年代的计算机革命。
He accepts that some people might consider the fourth revolution just an extension of the third but argues that the scale, speed and impact of the latest technologies mean they deserve a revolution of their own. “The changes are so profound that, from the perspective of human history, there has never been a time of greater promise or potential peril,” he asserts.
他承认有一些人将第四次革命视为第三次革命的延续，但他认为，以规模、速度和影响来看，最新技术称得上是一次革命。“变革如此深刻，从人类历史的角度来看，其蕴含的希望和潜在危险超过以往任何时候，”他断言。
Schwab spells out some of those perils: the unequal division of the spoils of technological advances and the threat of mass unemployment; the erosion of global governance; the potential abuse of robotics, genetic engineering and cyber weapons; the disruption of many established businesses.
施瓦布阐明了其中的一些危险：技术进步好处的不平等分配和大规模失业的威胁；全球治理受到削弱；机器人技术、基因工程和网络武器可能被滥用；许多老牌企业遭到颠覆。
New technologies are hitting both the supply and the demand side of business, meaning it is often far better to own a platform that brings consumers together than the underlying asset. Citing an article on the TechCrunch website, he notes that Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles; Facebook, the most popular media owner, creates no content; Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory; and Airbnb, the largest accommodation provider, owns no property.
新技术对商业的供给方和需求方都造成冲击，拥有一个将消费者汇集起来的平台远好于拥有基础资产。他引用了TechCrunch网站上的一篇文章，指出世界上最大的打车公司优步(Uber)本身并不拥有车辆；最受欢迎的媒体所有者Facebook没有创造任何内容；最有价值的零售商阿里巴巴(Alibaba)没有库存；最大的住宿供应商Airbnb没有房产。
In the face of such creative destruction, he notes, the average lifespan of a corporation listed on the S&P index has already dropped from about 60 years to 18. Established companies must rapidly embrace the fourth industrial revolution if they are not to be destroyed by it. “In short, they have to innovate continuously,” he writes, urging companies to move from command-and-control structures to more collaborative teamwork.
面临这种创造性破坏，他指出，标准普尔(S&P)指数成分股公司的平均寿命已经从约60年降至18年。如果老牌企业不想被第四次工业革命摧毁，它们就必须迅速接受它。“简而言之，它们必须不断创新，”施瓦布写道，他敦促企业从命令和控制结构，转向更多协作的团队工作。
As you would expect, though, the global elite’s cheerleaders suggest that promise will ultimately triumph over peril. The fourth industrial revolution is empowering the economically excluded of the world by giving them access to digital networks, increasing the efficiency of organisations, accelerating the development of personalised drugs and — perhaps — providing a technological solution to climate change.
不过，正如你预期的，全球精英的支持者们认为，希望终将战胜危险。第四次工业革命让经济上处于边缘地位的群体能够接触数字网络，从而变得强大；提高了组织效率；加快个性化药物的开发；此外还可能为气候变化提供技术解决方案。
The book’s conclusion follows the classic WEF formula: problems can be solved so long as all reasonable stakeholders pull together in the “spirit of Davos”. Schwab suggests that the fourth industrial revolution has the potential to “robotise humanity”; but, if shaped in a responsive and responsible way, could also catalyse a new cultural renaissance and a true global civilisation, lifting “humanity into a new collective and moral consciousness based on a shared sense of destiny”.
这本书的结论遵循世界经济论坛的套路：只要所有理性的利益攸关方本着“达沃斯精神”通力合作，难题就能够解决。施瓦布主张，第四次工业革命有可能“将人类机器人化”；但是，如果以一种响应式的、负责任的方式进行，这次革命也可能催化新的文化复兴和真正的全球化文明，使“人类基于一种共同的命运感，升华到一种新的集体和道德意识”。
The book is useful inflight reading matter for chief executives on their way to Davos. But, despite its release on Amazon, one might question its appeal to a broader readership. It is written in a strangely antiseptic Globish, full of paradigm shifts and multi-stakeholder co-operation.
对于即将前往达沃斯赴会的首席执行官们而言，这本书是有用的机上读物。然而，尽管这本书在亚马逊(Amazon)上发行，人们可能质疑这本书对广大读者的吸引力。全书以一种异常朴实无华的全球语撰写，充斥着范式转变、多方利益相关者的合作。
It is also, as Schwab admits, something of a rush job, amassing ideas culled from his many meetings with Davos luminaries (carefully noted in the acknowledgments). He tells us that is a “crowdsourced book, the product of the collected enlightened wisdom of the Forum’s activities”. Yet it also bears the heavy imprint of Schwab himself, who has presided over Davos since 1971. The word “I” appears 75 times in the text.
施瓦布也坦言，这本书成书较为仓促，汇集了他与许多达沃斯座上客（他在致谢声明中仔细地记录下来）接触中产生的想法。他告诉我们，这是一本“集思广益的书，是世界经济论坛活动中集体的开明见解的产物”。然而，自1971年以来主持达沃斯论坛的施瓦布也在这本书中留下了深深的个人印记。“我”这个字在文中出现了75次。
