中国楼市呈现冰火两重天 A tale of two tiers: China's top cities take off

Property prices in China’s top cities soared as much as 57 per cent in the year to February, widening the gap with the country’s ailing smaller locations.

2月份，中国大中城市的房价最高同比上涨了57%，拉大了与每况愈下的小城市的差距。

Shenzhen, the tech-heavy city across the border from Hong Kong, typifies the rise — some say bubble — under way even as China’s economic growth slows and the country braces for a wave of lay-offs from heavy industry.

毗邻香港、科技企业云集的深圳，就是房价飙升（有人认为这是泡沫）的典型。在中国经济增长放缓、国家准备应对重工业下岗大潮之际，深圳的房价却在大涨。

Prices of new residential buildings in Shenzhen rose 57 per cent from a year earlier, up from January’s increase of 52 per cent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the northern city of Dandong in rust-belt Liaoning province saw prices drop 3.9 per cent.

中国国家统计局周五发布的数据显示，深圳新建住宅价格同比上涨57%，高于1月份52%的同比涨幅。而在位于“锈带”辽宁省的北方城市丹东，新建住宅价格同比下降了3.9%。

Nationally, prices rose at an average annual 2.8 per cent, the biggest one-month rise since June 2014, according to FT calculations based on government data. There are signs that price gains are also feeding through to increased construction activity. Growth in property investment accelerated in the first two months of 2016, breaking a two-year run of slowing growth.

英国《金融时报》根据中国政府的数据估算，2月份中国全国房价平均同比上涨2.8%，为2014年6月以来的最大单月涨幅。有迹象表明，房价上涨还推动建筑活动增加。2016年头两个月，房地产投资增长提速，打破了两年来增长放缓的局面。

Governments in Beijing and Shanghai are now concerned about housing-market overheating and undersupply, while other cities still face an overhang of unsold houses built in expectations of gravity-defying property inflation.

北京市和上海市的政府如今担心的是住房市场过热和供给不足，而其他城市仍面临未售房屋过剩的局面，这些房屋都是因预期房价会只涨不跌而建造的。

The central bank said last week it will clamp down on unregulated peer-to-peer lending for mortgage downpayments — a source of shadow finance that analysts say has helped fuel property speculation.

中国央行上周表示，它将整治不受监管的P2P首付贷。分析师称，这一影子金融渠道对房地产投机起到了推波助澜的作用。

“The gap between cities is expanding,” said Liu Jianwei, an analyst from the National Bureau of Statistics. “Prices in tier one and tier two cities are increasing year-on-year, and this month’s increase is even larger than last month. At the same time, prices in tier three cities are decreasing year-on-year, and the rate of decrease is slowing.”

“城市间房价涨幅差距进一步加大，”国家统计局高级统计师刘建伟表示，“分城市看，一、二线城市房价同比平均上涨，涨幅比上月扩大；三线城市同比平均下降，降幅继续缩小。”

Overall, 32 of 70 cities in the government’s official price survey posted annual price gains in February, up from 25 cities in January. Analysts expect local governments in major cities to adopt measures to tamp demand, while a slow-motion recovery in smaller cities will continue.

总体来看，中国官方房价调查列出的70个大中城市当中，2月份新建住宅价格同比上涨的城市有32个，较1月份的25个有所增加。分析师预计，大城市的地方政府将采取措施抑制需求，而中小城市将继续缓慢复苏。

“The magnitude of housing price increases will continue to grow, at least through the first half of the year, driven by a rise in transaction volumes,” said Yan Yuejin, research director of E-house China R&D Institute. “In some large cities, inventories are already insufficient, which is leading to market expectations of even bigger price increases.”

“受成交量上升推动，住宅价格将加速上涨，至少在今年上半年会是如此。”易居房地产研究院(E-house China R&D Institute)的研究总监严跃进称，“在部分大城市，库存已经不足，这促使市场预期，甚至会有更大的价格涨幅。”

Local media described a recent scene in Shanghai, where hundreds of would-be buyers queued overnight, complete with blankets, to steal a march on a property sale.

当地媒体描述了上海近期出现的一个场景：数百名准买家裹着毯子连夜排队，以求在开盘时能抢在别人前头。

Highlighting the contrasting fortunes of China’s two-tier property market, the central bank last month cut the minimum downpayment requirement on mortgages outside of top cities from 25 to 20 per cent, in a bid to boost demand.

上月，中国央行将非一线城市首套房最低首付款比例从25%下调至20%，试图以此来刺激需求。此举突显出了中国“双层”房地产市场中存在的冰火两重天局面。

These cities are also seeking to woo rural migrants as a means of whittling back inventory. This week, southeastern Jiangxi province began a publicity push that advised migrants: “When farmers buy houses in the city, the value rises; when farmers build houses in the fields, the value falls.”

非一线城市还试图通过吸引农民工进城来去库存。本周，江西省开始公开宣传鼓励农民进城买房：“农民在城市购房是升值，在农村建房是贬值。”

Excess housing supply, as with overcapacity in other parts of the economy, is expected to spill over on to the banking sector. One analyst said empty houses suggest a larger volume of bad debts than banks’ official figures indicate, since local governments encourage local banks to engage in “extend and pretend” to keep developers liquid.

与经济其他领域的产能过剩一样，住房供应过剩预计将对银行业形成溢出效应。一名分析师称，空置住宅意味着实际坏账规模要大于银行公开给出的数字，这是因为地方政府鼓励当地银行以给贷款展期然后佯装问题不存在的方式来维持开发商的流动性。

Some developers are turning to diversification in a bid to protect profitability. Two of China’s biggest property developers, Vanke and Country Garden, this month said they will start providing elderly care, after-school classes and catering in their residential areas.

一些开发商正转向多元化经营来保持盈利能力。本月，中国两大房地产开发商万科(Vanke)和碧桂园(Country Garden)称，它们将开始在其住宅区内提供老年人护理、课外班和餐饮服务。