美国与越南关系转暖 武器禁令取消

Barack Obama is the third US president to visit Vietnam since the withdrawal of US troops in 1973. His trip this week is nonetheless replete with historic resonance as Washington consolidates its strategic pivot to Asia and makes common cause with a former wartime enemy against China’s aggressive claims to the South China Sea.

巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)是自1973年美国从越南撤军以来第三位访问该国的美国总统。然而，他本周的越南之行充满了历史回声。目前华盛顿方面正在强化其“重返亚洲”战略，与当年战场上的敌手共同应对中国对南中国海(South China Sea)咄咄逼人的领土要求。

The Vietnamese government hopes that the visit will provide the occasion for a repeal of the US arms embargo, partially eased in 2014 but which remains one of the last vestiges of the war. That could be a step too far.

越南政府希望，奥巴马的访问将提供美国完全解除对越南军火禁运的场合（2014年，这项禁运已部分解除，但仍是那场战争的最后遗产之一）。那可能是过高的期望。

That Vietnam is seeking closer military co-operation from Washington already carries potent symbolism. It signals the changes taking place as a result of Mr Obama’s determination to devote more of his country’s diplomatic, military and economic resources towards strengthening ties in Asia and countering China’s regional ambitions.

越南寻求加强与华盛顿方面的军事联系，已然具有强大的象征意义。它标志着奥巴马决心投入美国更多的外交、军事和经济资源，加强与亚洲相关国家的联系、对抗中国的地区性企图所带来的变化。

There are even indications that the Vietnamese are willing to consider the use by the US navy of their former wartime base at Cam Ranh Bay. As a measure of warming relations there could be few stronger pointers.

目前甚至有迹象表明，越南方面愿意考虑让美国海军使用他们在战争年代用过的金兰湾(Cam Ranh Bay)基地。作为两国关系转暖的衡量标准，很少有比这更强烈的象征了。

There is a danger however that lifting the arms embargo now would play into the Chinese narrative that it is the US that is militarising the South China Sea. It also risks provoking Beijing at a sensitive moment, ahead of a forthcoming international ruling in The Hague on the legality of Chinese claims to waters that the Philippines considers its own.

然而，如今解除对越南军火禁运的危险在于，此举将有利于中国方面的叙述，即美国正在军事化南中国海。另外，此举可能在一个敏感时刻激怒北京方面，海牙国际法院即将针对中国对菲律宾认为是其专属经济区的水域提出的领土要求的合法性作出裁决。

While supporting the legitimate security concerns of its allies, Washington needs to be careful to make the case based on law, rather than on the balance of forces. The Hague ruling will shed legal light on China’s territorial ambitions which make much of South East Asia uneasy.

在支持其盟国正当安全关切的同时，华盛顿方面需要基于法律（而非力量平衡）采取行动。海牙国际法院的裁决将从法律上揭示中国的领土企图。这种企图令东南亚大部分国家感到不安。

Mr Obama should also be wary of being seen to reward a regime with a human rights record that has shown little signs of improvement. While Vietnam has made extraordinary progress in lifting millions out of poverty, it remains one of the most repressive political environments on earth.

奥巴马也应当谨防被视为奖赏一个人权记录没有什么改善迹象的政权。尽管越南在让数百万人脱贫方面取得非凡进展，但该国仍有着地球上最令人压抑的政治环境之一。

John McCain, the US senator and former prisoner of war argues that sales of technology for Vietnam’s maritime security should be unrestricted, but the transfer of other arms should be case by case and linked to human rights. This seems to be a balanced approach.

曾当过战俘的美国参议员约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)辩称，为保护越南海上安全而对该国出售技术不应受到限制，但转让其他军火则应采取具体问题具体分析的办法，并与人权问题挂钩。这似乎是一个平衡的方式。

President Obama has made engaging with difficult regimes a trademark of his administration, from Cuba, to Myanmar and Iran. He has also sought reconciliation in places where the US legacy remains contentious. That the US and Vietnam are forging stronger ties is something to be celebrated.

奥巴马总统已把同不好相处的政权（古巴、缅甸和伊朗）打交道变成了他领导的政府的一个标志。他也寻求在美国介入历史仍有争议的地方实现和解。美国与越南加强双边关系是一件值得庆祝之事。

While laying old conflicts to rest, however, Mr Obama must be alert to the dangers of stoking new ones down the line.

然而，在告别旧冲突的同时，奥巴马必须要警惕，不要再引燃新冲突。