北京的观点 中美之间的修昔底德陷阱

China’s rising comes as the most pronounced but complicated feature of the twenty-first century.

中国的崛起作为最重要的宣言是21世纪的复杂特色。

In the past few years people over the world especially in the Asia-Pacific region have witnessed increasing tensions in U.S.-Chinese relations from all levels and in a wide range of areas.

在过去的几年里全世界的人们特别是亚太地区的人们见证了在各种层级和广度上的日渐紧张的中美关系。

Graham Allison a world-famous expert on international security and also the founding dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University was the first person to combine the concept of the “Thucydides Trap” with the analysis of China’s ongoing rise with recent commentaries published in global influential newspapers and websites such as the Financial Times the New York Times and the Atlantic. In those articles he warned that over the past five hundred years of human history twelve of all sixteen cases of global tensions resulted in shooting wars.

世界闻名的国际安全问题专家同时也在哈佛大学任职肯尼迪政府学院的院长的格雷厄姆Allison，是第一个把“修昔底德陷阱”和分析中国的持续崛起组合在一起构成概念，并与最近的评论发表在全球有影响力的报纸和网站如英国《金融时报》《纽约时报》和大西洋报。在这些文章中他警告说在过去的五百年里人类历史的16例全球紧张局势中的12例导致相互敌对的战争。

What’s more he argued that a Thucydides trap has arisen between the United States and China in the western Pacific in recent years. Thereafter some world-class masters including Zheng Yongnian Robert Zoellick Zbigniew Brzezinski Patrick Porter and T. J. Pempel followed in using this popular term when talking about U.S.-Chinese relations today or in the years ahead regardless of their personal attitudes toward such a pessimistic term.

更重要的是他认为近年来美国和中国之间在西太平洋地区已经发生了修昔底德陷阱。在此之后一些世界级的大师包括郑永年、罗伯特R26;佐利克(Robert Zoellick)、布热津斯基、帕特里克·波特和t . j . Pempel当谈论到今日或未来几年的中美关系都使用这个流行的词汇，他们的个人态度是如此的悲观。