千万别让默多克买下时代华纳

My first reaction to the $73bn bid from 21st Century Fox for Time Warner, which this week settled in for a prolonged fight as Time Warner blocked Fox from mounting a rapid assault on its board of directors, was to ask: what problem is Rupert Murdoch trying to solve?

我对21世纪福克斯(21st Century Fox)出价730亿美元收购时代华纳(Time Warner)之举的第一反应是：鲁珀特•默多克(Rupert Murdoch)想要解决什么问题？在成功抵挡福克斯对其董事会的突袭后，时代华纳已准备好打一场持久战。

It is not a paucity of high-quality television. Indeed, the problem is the opposite these days: it is hard to find enough time to watch all of the fine series that pour out of broadcast and cable networks, both subscription and free to air: True Detective, Game of Thrones, Orange is the New Black. The Good Wife, The Americans, House of Cards. The list goes on.

眼下，高质量的电视节目不是太少，而是太多。的确，现在的问题是好节目太多了，我们没时间全部看完。无论是付费频道还是免费频道，都有许多优秀的电视剧：《真探》(True Detective)、《权力的游戏》(Game of Thrones)、《女子监狱》(Orange is the New Black)，还有《傲骨贤妻》(The Good Wife)、《美国谍梦》(The Americans)、《纸牌屋》(House of Cards)，等等、等等。

Nor are the networks in financial trouble. Competition among cable and satellite operators to gain viewers – and efforts by services such as Netflix to draw them away – has created a production boom. In the US, non-sports cable networks receive $17bn a year in fees from cable and satellite operators; video-on-demand and similar services gain another $7.5bn, growing by 20 per cent in 2013, according to Barclays.

电视台也不缺钱。有线和无线运营商对观众资源的争夺，再加上Netflix等视频网站的入局，催生了一场电视剧制作热潮。巴克莱(Barclays)数据显示，在美国，非体育类有线台每年从有线和卫星电视运营商那里收到的转播费高达170亿美元，视频点播及类似服务实现75亿美元的收入，在2013年增长20%。

Hollywood studios such as Warner Bros and Fox are feeling the pinch, but this is a golden age of television, in creative and financial terms. That is the healthy outcome of fierce competition in a market where the barriers to entry have been falling, but it could be placed at risk by a wave of megamergers such as Fox/Time Warner and Comcast buying Time Warner Cable.

华纳兄弟(Warner Bros)和福克斯(Fox)等好莱坞制片公司感受到压力，但无论从创意角度还是资金角度而言，眼下都是电视的黄金时代。这是市场进入门槛降低和激烈竞争产生的良性结果。然而，一轮大规模并购可能葬送这个黄金时代，比如福克斯对时代华纳的收购、康卡斯特公司(Comcast)对时代华纳有线(Time Warner Cable)的收购。

Although we are now used to a bevy of dramas and comedies vying for our attention – both in the US and on international channels and streaming services – it is worth noting how recent the phenomenon is. The first series of The Sopranos, the HBO series that started the race to the top in television production, began 15 years ago.

尽管我们现在习惯了有一大堆电视剧争夺我们的注意力——无论是在美国和海外电视频道，还有流媒体服务，但值得一提的是，这种现象的历史并不悠久。第一部挑起电视剧争霸赛的剧集是《黑道家族》(The Sopranos)，由美国家庭电影频道(HBO)制作，开播于15年前。

It was launched two years before the ill-conceived and disastrous 2001 merger of AOL and Time Warner, which was accompanied by a lot of corporate flannel about how AOL would usher old media into the digital age. The upheaval that The Sopranos caused was more potent and enduring than the financial engineering inflicted on HBO’s parent company.

那部剧开播两年后的2001年，美国在线(AOL)跟时代华纳合并了，当时有许多人鼓吹美国在线会带领老媒体走向数字时代，然而这次并购计划不周，最后惨败收场。《黑道家族》引发的制作高质量电视剧的趋势，则比针对HBO母公司的“金融工程”更有生命力、也更加持久。

AOL Time Warner is no more, but HBO’s value has grown hugely – it is the jewel Fox most wants to seize in Time Warner’s crown. The channel gained its power with cable operators by being innovative, not by being big. Subscription channels including Showtime and free ones such as AMC, which broadcast Mad Men, followed its lead.

美国在线时代华纳已成过去式，但HBO的价值增长了不少；福克斯对时代华纳发出收购，最想摘取的就是HBO这颗“皇冠上的明珠”。HBO之所以能征服有线电视运营商，靠的是创新，而不是规模。娱乐时间(Showtime)等付费有线电视频道、以及播放《广告狂人》(Mad Men)的AMC等免费有线电视频道，也在追随HBO的脚步。

This happened in an extremely competitive market, driven by four big broadcast networks, six major Hollywood studios and the disruptive force of the internet, which enabled new services to be created. No company had sufficient power of distribution, or share of production, to inhibit it.

这一切发生在一个竞争极度激烈的市场上，这个市场由四大无线电视台、6大好莱坞制片公司、以及不断带来新型服务的互联网的颠覆力量驱动。没有一家公司有足够的分销实力和制片份额来阻止竞争。

Mr Murdoch, of all people, should recognise the benefits of competition since he is an innovator. He broke the grip of the big three broadcast networks by launching the Fox network in 1986. Fox News, which he started in 1996, has (for good or ill) overtaken Time Warner’s CNN. FX, a Fox cable channel, makes good shows such as Fargo.

默多克理应最清楚地意识到竞争的好处，因为他是个创新者。1986年，他创办福克斯电视，打破了3大无线电视台对市场的把持。他于1996年创办的福克斯新闻(Fox News)，如今已超越时代华纳的美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)——且不论这是好还是不好。福克斯旗下的有限电视频道FX，也制作了像《冰风暴》(Fargo)那样的优秀剧集。

The best quality of News Corp, now split into a publishing company and Fox, is entrepreneurialism.

新闻集团（News Corp，眼下已分拆为一家出版公司和福克斯）最优秀的品质在于创新精神。

Mr Murdoch has founded (or retooled from brands that had been allowed to fade by others) a range of media properties, from The Sunnewspaper to BSkyB, the satellite broadcaster. They would not have survived, or existed, without him.

默多克创立了一系列媒体资产（或者再创了在其他人手中原本江河日下的品牌），从《太阳报》(Sun)到天空电视台(BSkyB)。没有他，这些品牌不可能存活、或根本不会存在。

Mr Murdoch has another side – that of adept and ruthless dealmaker. He has a history of forcing his way into a market and pouncing on an old-established asset, often at a high price. He paid a breathtaking $5bn for Dow Jones in 2007 and Fox has returned $12bn to shareholders over the past three years in an effort to rebuild credibility.

但默多克还有另外一面——精明、无情的生意人。硬挤进一个市场、（往往以高价）对一项老牌资产发起收购，这样的事情他干过很多次。2007年，他斥资50亿美元收购道琼斯(Dow Jones)，让所有人大吃一惊；为重建可信度，福克斯过去3年来向股东返还了120亿美元。

I prefer the first Murdoch, but the second is now at work. He has struck just as Jeff Bewkes, Time Warner’s chief executive, has slimmed it down by spinning off Time Warner Cable and Time Inc, but before its growth potential was fully proved. The $73bn offer is not enough, and it will be hard to persuade Time Warner without overpaying.

我更欣赏第一个默多克，但如今跳出来的是第二个。时代华纳首席执行官杰夫•比克斯(Jeff Bewkes)刚刚剥离了时代华纳有线和时代公司(Time Inc)。也就是说，时代华纳刚刚瘦身成功，但尚未充分证明自己的增长潜力，默多克选在这样一个时机出手。730亿美元的收购出价根本不足以反映时代华纳的价值，而且要说服它接受收购，不支付溢价是不可能的。

The deal makes perfect sense for Mr Murdoch. He has coveted it since the 1980s, when he attempted to buy Warner Bros before setting up Fox. He would control a production powerhouse, with one broadcast network, two film studios and cable networks including HBO, and be the king of the content castle.

默多克眼下发起这样一笔交易太符合逻辑了。他从上世纪80年代就开始觊觎这样的资产，在创立福克斯之前，他曾试图收购华纳兄弟。收购时代华纳将让他拥有一个源源不断产出内容的大工厂：有一家电视台、两家电影公司、还有包括HBO在内的有线电视台——他将成为主宰这个内容城堡的国王。

What about the rest of us, though? We have been extremely well served by the existing industry structure, and the intensification of competition in the past two decades. Why would the consumer want to lose all of that to consolidation and the rebuilding of media oligopolies?

可是，我们这些消费者怎么办？目前的行业结构、以及过去20年来白热化的竞争，让我们得以享受一流的服务。消费者怎么会希望拿现在拥有的一切，去换取电视行业的整合、媒体的重新垄断？

Ask a company in this wave of mergers and the answer tends to be: “We have no choice.” Others are growing and they must respond. Media companies cite the power of Comcast, particularly if the Time Warner Cable deal is approved. Comcast itself points to internet giants such as Google.

面对眼下这股并购潮，电视行业里的公司可能会说：“我们别无选择。”竞争者在成长，它们必须做出应对。媒体公司会用康卡斯特的强大为自己辩护，特别是在时代华纳有线的交易获得批准的情况下。康卡斯特自己则说，有谷歌(Google)等互联网巨头在后面追着，它不得不这样做。

The size argument is not self-evident – it helps in negotiations but what matters more is making shows that cable and satellite operators need. The fact that cable companies that once dominated distribution face new online and digital competition is difficult for them but is good for consumers, and it cannot be solved by merging with others.

规模这个理由并不具备说服力。在谈判中，规模是个有利因素，但更重要的是制作出有线和无线运营商需要的节目。有线公司一度主导分销，如今却面临新的网络和数字渠道的竞争，这对它们是个不利因素，但有利于消费者，并购也解决不了它们的问题。

Before the entertainment industry plunges into a frenetic round of self-reinforcing, defensive consolidation, both US regulators and companies should consider: what is so bad about what we have?

在娱乐业掀起一轮自我强化、防守姿态的整合热潮之前，美国的监管机构和公司都应该考虑一个问题：现在的局面有何不好？