年"有望"成为有史以来最热的一年(图)

New data from some of the world's leading climate researchers and institutions suggest that 2010 is shaping up to be one of the warmest years ever recorded.

Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.

Satellite monitoring by the NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado, shows that the melting of sea ice has been unusually fast this year, with as much as 40,000 sq km now disappearing daily.

The melt season started almost a month later than normal at the end of March and is not expected to end until September.

Meanwhile, research from the polar science centre at the University of Washington suggests that the volume of sea ice in March 2010 was 20,300 cubic km, 38% below the 1979 level when records began.

Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).

In a paper which is yet to be peer-reviewed but has been submitted to the journal Reviews of Geophysics, they suggest that the Earth has been 0.65C warmer over the past 12 months than during the 1951 to 1980 mean, and that the global temperature for 2010 will exceed the 2005 record.

Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics' claims that global warming "stopped" in 1998.

"Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010," he writes.

"It is likely that the 2010 global surface temperature ... will be a record.

"Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up ... we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s."

The Nasa research backs up findings by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the US national climate monitoring service that measures global temperatures by satellite. This has recorded the hottest ever first four months of a year.

As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years.

Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be "major", with winds of at least 111mph.

This is compared to an average six-month season of 11 named storms, six of which become hurricanes, two of them major.

来自世界主要气候研究机构的新数据指出，2010将面临有史以来最热的一年的压力。

美国国家冰雪数据中心的科学家们在今天的报告中说：北冰洋的海冰－浮在海洋表面的冰冻海水－正处于同一时期中最低的物理范围，打破2007年的纪录低点。

美国冰雪数据中心在博尔德和科罗拉多州的卫星监测显示：今年海冰的融化速度异乎寻常地快，冰层以每天高达4万平方公里的速度在消失。

海冰开始融化的时间比以往迟了一个月（以前从三月底开始融化），但会一直持续到9月，这是我们所没有预料到的。

同时，来自华盛顿大学在极地科学研究中心的研究指出，2010的的海冰体积为20,300立方千米，比1979年以来的最低记录减少了38%。

据美国宇航局的气候科学家詹姆斯.汉森及他的同事们指出，地球表面温度也可能创最高纪录。

有一篇论文（该论文已通过行业审批，还未出版）显示，在过去的12个月里，地球平均温度比1951年至1980年的平均值高0.65摄氏度，到2010年，地球温度将超过2005的最高纪录，创下新高。

被誉为研究气候变化的科学家之一，汉森驳回人们的质疑，质疑者声称全球变暖将止步于1998年。

“2010年，地球表面温度似乎会创新纪录。”他写到。

“全球变暖还在继续，没有停止...我们估计，从70年代末开始，每十年上升0.15~0.2度的全球变暖趋势没有减少。”

美国宇航局的研究支持了由美国家海洋和大气协会通过卫星测量全球气温的调查结果，该调查结果纪录了历史来最热的前四个月。

在外海平面温度的作用下，这周正式进入大西洋飓风季节－预计是最强烈的一年。

上周，美国国家海洋和大气局预测今年风季将有14-23个风暴，包括8-14个飓风，其中3-7个是大范围的，风速每小时至少达到111英里。而以往的风季平均长达六个月，只有11个命名为风暴，其中6个转变成飓风，只有2个是有大范围。